| | You are not authorized to post a reply. |
| | Author | Messages | |
jgsugden
Commander
4320 Posts
    
Walnut Creek, CA
 | | 06/03/2006 4:40 AM |
| I've posted this information in a couple of places, but never devoted an entire thread to the idea. Forgive me if it seems repetitive, but I think this info will be useful to people as they plan their War of the Dragon Queen purchases.
All secondary market price 'guesses' below are my guesses for the lower half of price of figures on Ebay when sold as singles.
Typical Set:
In a 'typical set' (Underdark, Anegelfire, etc...) there are 24 rares, 24 uncommons, 12 commons, 1 rare per booster, 3 uncommons per booster, 4 commons per booster, 12 boosters per case, and an MSRP of $12.99 per booster.
24 boosters costs ~$312. That will get you an average of 1 of each rare, 3 of each uncommons and 8 of each common.
WotDQ:
In WotDQ there are 6 huge rares, 6 huge uncommons, 18 (normal) rares, 16 (normal) uncommons, 14 commons, 1 huge rare in every 3 boosters on average, 2 huge uncommons in every 3 boosters on average, 1 rare per booster, 2 uncommons per booster, 4 commons per booster, 6 boosters per case and an MSRP of $19.99 per booster.
18 boosters costs ~$360. That will get you an average of 1 of each huge rare, 2 of each huge uncommon, 1 of each rare, 2.25 of each uncommon and 5.14 of each common.
Comparison:
If we prorate the WotDQ numbers down to an expenditure of $312 from $360, we need to reduce the WotDQ numbers to 86.6%. That would get you an average of 0.86 of each huge rare, 1.73 of each huge uncommon, 0.86 of each rare, 1.95 of each uncommon and 4.45 of each common.
What does all this mean?
If we assume that an equal amount of money is spent to bring minis into the marketplace, we can expect to see fewer rares, uncommons and commons than in a standard set. This would make them harder to come by.
Commons:
Normally, we'd be seeing 8 of each common when $312 is spent. In WotDQ, the number drops to 4.45... nearly 1/2 the normal number expected. This is much closer to the market presence of a typical uncommon from a typical set (although they will have a slightly larger presence than uncommons in a typical set). What might this mean? You'll probably have trouble finding really cheap bulk commons, but the prices won't be too outrageous. I'm betting that the price will be $0.50 to $2.00 for the commons in the secondary market, but this is just an educated guess.
Uncommons:
Normally, we'd be seeing 3 of each uncommon when $312 is spent. In WotDQ, the number drops to 1.95... less than 2/3 the normal number expected. That puts the market presence of uncommons in WotDQ right between the presence of a typical rare in a typical set and an uncommon in a typical set. What might this mean? It means that a typical uncommon might cost the same amount as a bad rare in a normal set... and a good uncommon could cost as much as a mediocre rare in a typical set. I'd think that uncommons will be between $1 and $5 on Ebay, eventually.
Rares:
Normally, we'd be seeing 1 of each rare when $312 is spent. In WotDQ, the number drops to 0.85. That isn't much of a change, really. Considering that many of the normal rares in WotDQ lack the special star quality people seek in a rare, these figures will probably be quite reasonable for rares, although the top tier rares might be a little higher in cost than people are used to paying. I'd bet that the prices should fall in the range of $5 to $25 on Ebay.
Why this analysis holds true despite the presence of huges:
People often think that the analysis above is screwed up because people are also getting huges when they buy a WotDQ booster. This, however, is not true.
What is driving the examples above is the limited presence of uncommons, commons and rares. This lack of presence of commons, uncommons and rares is an independent situation that is not affected by the presence of huges in the packs.
Think of it this way: Let's say that you feel like getting a prepackaged meal from a fast food burger place: Burger, fries and drink. The burger is the main part of the meal, but you really enjoy the drink and fries, too.
It normally costs $5 for the normal size meal. One day, you walk in the fast food place and find that they've cut the size of the fries in the normal meal by 50% and the size of the drink in the normal meal by 33%, but they have not changed the price. In addition, they've added a small salad to the meal.
As a purchaser, you have two options:
1.) Settle for less fries and less drink, or
2.) Spend more money to get some extra fries and drink to bring you back to what you're used to getting for your $5.
The presence of that extra salad isn't going to get you the fries and drink you want. It won't make them cheaper, either. It is just something else you're getting for your $5...
Huges:
You can't compare the huges to a normal set, because they are not in a normal set. However, there are a few things worth noting with regard to huges:
1.) The huge rares in GoL made an appearance once in every 24 boosters on average. In WotDQ, they appear once in every 18 boosters. This means they should be much easier to get a hold of, and we can expect the price on the huge rares to be a little lower than the GoL huge rares. I'd expect them to fall in the price range of $10 to $30 eventually.
2.) The huge uncomons in GoL made an appearance 3 times in every 24 boosters on average. In WotDQ, they appear twice in every 18 boosters. Instead of showing up once in every 8 boosters, they'll show up once in every 9 boosters. They'll be slightly harder to get, but not too much harder to get. I'd expect them to fall in a price range of $2 to $6 each eventually, but that is just an educated guess. | |
Champion of Meepo _*_ Myztek on the Wizards Boards. _*_ (2206 DDM on 03/06/06)
Please note: The use of the  indicates an attempt at humor ... often a bad attempt.
BAD EBAY SELLERS LIST (CLICK HERE): AVOID AT ALL COSTS
| |
|
DarkWhite
Warrior
185 Posts
| | 06/03/2006 9:31 AM |
| Thanks for the analysis.
Most sets have provided 4 of each Common and 1.5 of each Uncommon per case of 12 boosters. WarDrums was a little different, being a Starter Set, with only 3 of each Common per case, due to a wider range of Common figures.
If WotDQ stole the Huge slot from the Commons, instead of Uncommons, an average of 3 of each Common per 12 boosters could have been maintained, and no change to the Uncommons, making it less taxing to collect similar quantities of Commons/Uncommons as we are accustomed to from previous sets.
Maybe distribution isn't as simple as I think it should be? With GoL we were complaining about Huge distribution, with WotDQ we're questioning the Common/Uncommon distribution. Go figure? I like Huges, I'm just resistant to change. | |
http://www.maxminis.com/hwlist.asp?user=DarkWhite
[for trade only within Australia, no overseas trade thanks] | |
|
| | You are not authorized to post a reply. |
|
| |
ActiveForums 3.7 | You must be signed in to participate in the
games. |