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Subject: Case Distribution Gripe

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dj-chuckles
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11/10/2006 11:50 AM  
Ok, I buy cases. I love to buy cases because I usually get a set in 3 cases. But I received 1 case last night and I was urked! 2x Lord of Blades in 1 case. This should IMHO not be happening. I was pissed off enough with War Drums and that issue, with 2 and 3 times the mini in 1 case. Aspect of Moradin and Wardrummers were my bane. I really hope this isn't the case with this set. How do I go about complaining about this. Shouldn't they only have 1 of each rare in a case? Please tell me what you think.

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11/10/2006 12:00 PM  
Posted By dj-chuckles on 11/10/2006 11:50 AM
Ok, I buy cases. I love to buy cases because I usually get a set in 3 cases. But I received 1 case last night and I was urked! 2x Lord of Blades in 1 case. This should IMHO not be happening. I was pissed off enough with War Drums and that issue, with 2 and 3 times the mini in 1 case. Aspect of Moradin and Wardrummers were my bane. I really hope this isn't the case with this set. How do I go about complaining about this. Shouldn't they only have 1 of each rare in a case? Please tell me what you think.


It is impossible for them to completely prevent this. I had no doubles in either of my cases, personally, and I don't believe any of the other players I've talked to have either.

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11/10/2006 12:26 PM  
This is the first time I've heard of duplicate rares in a Blood Wars case. It does suck but unlike in Wardrums it at least doesn't seem to be a common problem.

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11/10/2006 12:28 PM  
Bloodwars has been out about a week and this is the first complaint that I've heard of. I'm sure that there are many others that got two of the same rare in a case but I don't feel that it's a major problem.

I've only opened one case so far and got all different rares. If I get a double in one or both of my next cases I won't be that upset about it - not at all upset about it if it's a good rare, a little upset if it's something I don't want multiples of.

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11/10/2006 1:28 PM  
In al the cases I've gotten (not a lot compared to some, but still), I have never gotten a duplicate rare. Well, on the bright side now you have more rares to trade away.

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11/10/2006 1:31 PM  
Posted By dj-chuckles on 11/10/2006 11:50 AM
Ok, I buy cases. I love to buy cases because I usually get a set in 3 cases. But I received 1 case last night and I was urked! 2x Lord of Blades in 1 case. This should IMHO not be happening. I was pissed off enough with War Drums and that issue, with 2 and 3 times the mini in 1 case. Aspect of Moradin and Wardrummers were my bane. I really hope this isn't the case with this set. How do I go about complaining about this. Shouldn't they only have 1 of each rare in a case? Please tell me what you think.


I'm with you. I got 3 case and didn't get a set. Not only didn't I get the set, I'm 5 rares short. FIVE! I got multiple rares in each case, including 3 Arcadian Hippogriffs, Bralani Eladrins, Lillends, Hellcats, and Ice Devils. I got triples of 21% of the rares and missed out on 21%. 25% of my rares are singles and 33% doubles. I usually buy 2 cases and miss a set by 0-3. Lousey distribution.


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11/10/2006 1:53 PM  

If you're looking at the results of 2 to 10 cases of figures, your opinion doesn't mean squate. I don't mean that you're worthless, I mean that your opinion is based upon a statisitically insignificant sample.  Simply put - you don't have enough evidence upon which to base a reasonable and informed opinion.

If you want to see a relfectsion of the type of poor assessemtns that might pop up using this type of data, do the following experiment.

Take 24 pennies.  Write the numbers 1 though 24 on the pennies (1 number for each penny).  Drop them in a hat.  Pull out 12.  Write those 12 numbers down.  Put the pennies back in the hat.  Repeat the process.  This time, before you put the pennies back in the hat, check to see which numbers have not yet occured.  Repeat that process until you've seen all 24 numbers appear at least once.Â

How many times did you have to repeat before you got all 24 numbers?Â

Which number showed up the most often?  How many times did it show up?

Did you see any combination of numbers that appeared to show up more often within a case?Â

I'll bet you can find a 3 penny combination where the pennies only showed up if they showed up together...  What is that combination (if there is one)?

Is there a number that showed up in 75% (or more) of the sets of 12?Â

Pretend that each one of these coins is a different rare in Blood War, and each pull of 12 represents a case.  Now pretend that the numbers reflect the value of the figures (to you) with 1 being the best and 24 being the worst.  Did you get all the figures you wanted most (#1-6) in the first 2 cases?  In the first 3? 

Now, put that piece of paper aside.  Get a new piece of paper and repeat the process.  Ask the same questions.  How did your answers change?  Does that change reflect a change in the pennies?Â

Now, as a final experiment - repeat the whole process, but instead of pulling 12 pennies aside at a time, pull the pennies out 1 at a time, write down the number, and drop the penny back in before drawing out another penny.  That shows you what life is like without WotC going out of their way to limit duplicate rares in a case.  Which results did you like better?

If every DDM case buyer did this experiment a few times, there would be less complaints about distribution...


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11/10/2006 2:10 PM  
I agree that it is hard to completely eliminate duplicate rares in a case, and I think they do a pretty good job, out of the 2 cases I have gotten I only got 1 duplicate.  And to WoTC it might not be that big of a deal because i bet that with over 80% of the cases they sell, they are opened and stocked on the shelf with boosters from other cases.  I'm not trying say that I think they shouldnt try to sort out the rares in a case, just that they do a pretty good job and probably dont have the motivation to make it a "perfect" distribution process.

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11/10/2006 2:32 PM  
I could be wrong about this, but I think I got 2 Pit Fiends in one case I pulled the boosters out of 2 cases and stacked them, but maybe I stacked 2 boosters from different cases in the same area without realizing.

I did get 2 Horned Devils in 1 case though.

One weird thing to mention, out of 8 cases, I only got 1 Kolyarut. I was getting frustrated with that guy because I didn't pull him until I opened my 7th case.

I did get several Pit Fiends & Horned Devils, so I can live with pulling only 1 Kolyarut


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11/10/2006 2:53 PM  
jgsugden makes an amazingly good argument in his post. That post should be printed on the side of every case of DDM released.

Some effort to reduce the number of duplicate rares in each case should be made - which they have.

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11/10/2006 3:00 PM  
But we're gamers. Satistical irrationality is an inherant part of our nature. Look at how we treat dice rolling.

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11/10/2006 3:02 PM  
Posted By dj-chuckles on 11/10/2006 11:50 AM
Ok, I buy cases. I love to buy cases because I usually get a set in 3 cases. But I received 1 case last night and I was urked! 2x Lord of Blades in 1 case. This should IMHO not be happening. I was pissed off enough with War Drums and that issue, with 2 and 3 times the mini in 1 case. Aspect of Moradin and Wardrummers were my bane. I really hope this isn't the case with this set. How do I go about complaining about this. Shouldn't they only have 1 of each rare in a case? Please tell me what you think.


Frankly, would you be complaining if you got 2 pit fiends or 2 horned devils ?

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11/10/2006 3:08 PM  
Posted By kandimann69 on 11/10/2006 1:31 PM
I'm with you. I got 3 case and didn't get a set. Not only didn't I get the set, I'm 5 rares short. FIVE!
With 3 cases, you should have an average of 3 missing rares, and 15 duplicates (or triples). Lacking 5 rares doesn't mean that the distribution is screwed, but that you were a bit unlucky this time, that's all.

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11/10/2006 3:43 PM  
Posted By gss_000 on 11/10/2006 3:00 PM
But we're gamers. Satistical irrationality is an inherant part of our nature. Look at how we treat dice rolling.

Don't confuse case distribution with dice probability.  The dice are out to get us.

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11/10/2006 3:58 PM  
Your arguemnt is based on a completely random sample. I don't think it is, or at least that it was less random in earlier sets. With your penny analogy WOTC is doing the equivilent of throwing another and then another number 4 into the hat. The point is duplicate rares, in my instance 2 in one case (making 10 unique rare figs in a case), is a distribution is a problem. Can WOTC ensure cases don't have duplcate rares? I don't know, but is doesn't seem that hard. Maybe I did get unlucky with one case, but all three cases contained at least one duplicate rare; with one containing two. I think dup rares were less of a problem in earlier sets. Also, in this case N=36. Which is enough of a sample size to perform most statistical tests. ** Conspiracy Theory Just Beyond ** Perhaps WOTC is setting forth a half-assed or subtle effort to get people to buy fewer cases from the internet and more boosters from their FLGS. By making cases slightly less desirible to the set collector (by containing less of a change to complete the set), then some of the market may shift to the stores. Just a thought. Another thought is that by increasing the number of repeats in a case, the number the number of cases purchased will increase, even for the FLGS, by making some rares rarer than others. Does wizards claim that each rare is as rare as any other rare? Also, should mention that I'm bitching even though I got 2 pit fiends and 2 horned devils (which seems to be this set's G-spot). I'm just saying that even thought I probably benefited, I still think it's screwy.


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11/10/2006 4:08 PM  
Posted By kandimann69 on 11/10/2006 3:58 PM
 Does wizards claim that each rare is as rare as any other rare?

I don't know if wotc claim anything, but I recall there was a thread for the underdark set where someone posted the contents of around 200 boosters, and it was found that there was no "very" rare. All the rares were randomly distributed.
(of course it could have changed by now, but there is absolutely no proof of this ; unless someone posts the contents of 200 BW boosters...)

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11/10/2006 4:32 PM  
I started buying by the case to avoid duplicate rares in the dozen or so boosters I'd normally get. If duplicate rares in a case start showing up in numbers I'll have to rethink my buying which will likely result in far fewer boosters purchased total. I'd even consider forsaking boosters completely and just getting sets of commons and uncommons and forget about rares almost completely.


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11/10/2006 4:40 PM  
Posted By kandimann69 on 11/10/2006 3:58 PM
Your arguemnt is based on a completely random sample. I don't think it is, or at least that it was less random in earlier sets. With your penny analogy WOTC is doing the equivilent of throwing another and then another number 4 into the hat. The point is duplicate rares, in my instance 2 in one case (making 10 unique rare figs in a case), is a distribution is a problem. Can WOTC ensure cases don't have duplcate rares? I don't know, but is doesn't seem that hard. Maybe I did get unlucky with one case, but all three cases contained at least one duplicate rare; with one containing two. I think dup rares were less of a problem in earlier sets. Also, in this case N=36. Which is enough of a sample size to perform most statistical tests. ** Conspiracy Theory Just Beyond ** Perhaps WOTC is setting forth a half-assed or subtle effort to get people to buy fewer cases from the internet and more boosters from their FLGS. By making cases slightly less desirible to the set collector (by containing less of a change to complete the set), then some of the market may shift to the stores. Just a thought. Another thought is that by increasing the number of repeats in a case, the number the number of cases purchased will increase, even for the FLGS, by making some rares rarer than others. Does wizards claim that each rare is as rare as any other rare? Also, should mention that I'm bitching even though I got 2 pit fiends and 2 horned devils (which seems to be this set's G-spot). I'm just saying that even thought I probably benefited, I still think it's screwy.

A few things:

Duplicate rares in a case are very uncommon.  The overwhelming majority of cases have no duplicates.  You were extremely unlucky if you got dupe rares in 3 cases in a row.  If I had to guess, I'd guess there was a quality control issue that had to be addressed by replacing minis at the time your cases were being filled, and the issue had an effect on a substantial number of minis at that time.  Yours is a very unusual situation... and is not the specific situation I was addressing in my response.Â

Dupe rares were a MUCH larger problem in earlier sets.  IIRC, WotC did nothing to prevent duplicate rares in Harbinger, Dragoneye or Archfiends.  Accordingly, the situation was similar to the final test I provided in my penny example... duplicate rares in a case were very, very common in those days.  IIRC, there was a tale of 4 duplicate rares (4 copies of the same rare) in a booster case of harbinger reported on Maxminis...

As for 36 boosters being enough to perform statistical tests - in some ways, yes - in some ways - no.  First of all, you can perform a test with any sample size you want.  If the size is too small, the reliability of your results will be in question, but you can still perform the test.  Further, in the relevant view of this situation, your sample size is really only 3 cases, not 36 boosters.   What is the difference?  The analysis is based upon case contents, not booster contents.  You're only sampling from 3 cases.   The tests in question discuss duplicates found between cases.

Distribution in DDM is pretty darn good.  Most of the complaints we see on the boards result from people not understanduing the math behind the probabilities.  When people complain about not getting a complete set in 3 cases, or getting 3 of the same rare in 3 cases, or getting duplicates of 'bad' rares only - and they blame these problems on distribution issues - they are blaming the wrong thing.  They should be blaming their luck for not being exceptionally good.  They should not be blaming a perfectly fine distribution scheme.Â

If you want a perfect distribution of rares: Buy a complete set on Ebay.  It costs about as much as 2 cases over the internet ( a little less).  You give up extra uncommons and commons for the certainty of getting 1 of each rare.

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11/10/2006 4:44 PM  
Posted By PaSquall on 11/10/2006 4:08 PM
Posted By kandimann69 on 11/10/2006 3:58 PM
 Does wizards claim that each rare is as rare as any other rare?

I don't know if wotc claim anything, but I recall there was a thread for the underdark set where someone posted the contents of around 200 boosters, and it was found that there was no "very" rare. All the rares were randomly distributed.
(of course it could have changed by now, but there is absolutely no proof of this ; unless someone posts the contents of 200 BW boosters...)

WotC did make this claim for prior sets.  They have not said anything about it for this set, but I imagine that it is only because nobody has asked them to do so.

However, the claim is subject to 1 little caveat - defects in production may result in slight variances in the total number of a miniature that get out there.  If a particular figure is prone to production defects, there may be less of that figure in production, but I doubt this difference is ever significant.  If the total number of each standard rare in a set in existence differed by more than a few percentage points, I'd be shocked.  In order for it to amount to something that would be noticeably different... welll, that would be dumbfounding.

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11/10/2006 5:21 PM  
It's easier to blame distribution problems or conspiracy theories than your own bad luck. I remember a few months ago I bought two cases of DeathKnell before the prices went up. I was hoping for one or two extra Beholders. I didn't get one. I got some good stuff - 2 Large Blue Dragons, 2 Couatl's and some other good rares - but I was still pissed about not getting a Beholder. Even though I knew it was just bad luck I still felt dissapointed. I consoled myself with the fact that I didn't get any Ambush Drakes either.

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11/10/2006 6:47 PM  

Complain? I was of the understanding that we're not to complain about anything... in particular WoTC products?

Last time I came close  to something that slightly resembled a complaint, some tryhard moderator told me off. I was also reprimand for saying ass... so please, watch your language

Spite aside and into the sarcasm, I would also be furious if I bought three cases and found a double. FURIOUS! *shakes fist*

There is of course, dj-chuckles (are you a real DJ, btw?) another way. That is, to buy singles. You know exactly what you're getting and you won't find doubles. JOY!


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11/10/2006 7:14 PM  
Posted By jgsugden on 11/10/2006 3:43 PM

Don't confuse case distribution with dice probability.  The dice are out to get us.

My bad.  I'll try not to make that mistake in the future.


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11/10/2006 7:28 PM  
Posted By ScruffyRanger on 11/10/2006 6:47 PM

Complain? I was of the understanding that we're not to complain about anything... in particular WoTC products?


We can complain about anything we'd like. And if we do so in an intelligent and constructive way - there's even the possibility that someone will listen.

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11/10/2006 7:32 PM  
I opened 3 cases and got almost perfect distrubution for commons and uncommons and pairings were exactly what was called for in various threads. I never pulled duplicate rares in the same case but I did pull a hellcat,lillend,centaur warhulk and valenar charger in every case. I only came up 3 rares short of the total set.

so the statistics pan out for my small sample,however the dice still hate me and the longer I roll in a game the more they resent me and roll numbers just to spite me .
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11/10/2006 11:21 PM  
I think it's sour grapes complaining about getting two Lords of Blades in one case.

I got 2.75 cases and did not have any Lords of Blades. I had to trade for one.

If you had gotten 3 pairs of duplicates, I could see reason to complain. One pair of duplicates is just silly to complain about.

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11/11/2006 4:01 AM  
There's way too much logic and statistics and common sense in this thread.

I'd say it was aliens. DJ_Chuckles has probably, in his job, or maybe in his hobbies, managed to irritate some aliens who have amazing powers. One of those aliens possessed some line worker in China and made sure that two Lord of Blades boosters ended up next to each other in the part of the packaging system so that they'd go into the same case. And then some allied aliens made sure that that very case ended up in his house. It probably wasn't easy either--we should give these aliens some credit for their ingenuity.

I think DJ_Chuckles was lucky, really, to have had that kind of attention from aliens.



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11/11/2006 6:35 AM  
I got 4 Large Monstrous Spiders out of 1 case of Dragoneye,Even if the odd case of Blood War has 1 double rare WOTC did a good job fixing things.

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11/11/2006 10:10 AM  

Just for the sake of saying it, I had an incredible thing happen for me with Blood War.

My friends and I usually pick up 4-5 cases of each set when they arrive. I typically open 3 cases and still need to pick up a couple of rares that I am missing, but this time I only grabbed two cases (actually, I was handed two randomly out of our stack of 5).

The 2 cases were perfectly matched. Out of the two cases, I pulled 1 of each rare, 3 of each uncommon, and 8 of each common.

This is certainly the only time this will ever happen to me. Maybe it is karma for the 5 cases of archfiends that I opened and still had to trade for an Aspect of Bane...


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11/11/2006 10:46 AM  
Posted By enginer230 on 11/11/2006 10:10 AM

Just for the sake of saying it, I had an incredible thing happen for me with Blood War.

My friends and I usually pick up 4-5 cases of each set when they arrive. I typically open 3 cases and still need to pick up a couple of rares that I am missing, but this time I only grabbed two cases (actually, I was handed two randomly out of our stack of 5).

The 2 cases were perfectly matched. Out of the two cases, I pulled 1 of each rare, 3 of each uncommon, and 8 of each common.

This is certainly the only time this will ever happen to me. Maybe it is karma for the 5 cases of archfiends that I opened and still had to trade for an Aspect of Bane...



Nice,I've never heard of someone opening 2 perfectly matched cases.

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11/11/2006 10:54 AM  
The same thing happened to one of my friends; he bought 2 cases, and had a third on order. He opened the first two and got a complete set, although he still wanted the extra case just for traders and spare minis; you just can't have enought Horned Devils.

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11/11/2006 6:27 PM  
Posted By WakeXX on 11/11/2006 10:46 AM
Posted By enginer230 on 11/11/2006 10:10 AM

Just for the sake of saying it, I had an incredible thing happen for me with Blood War.

My friends and I usually pick up 4-5 cases of each set when they arrive. I typically open 3 cases and still need to pick up a couple of rares that I am missing, but this time I only grabbed two cases (actually, I was handed two randomly out of our stack of 5).

The 2 cases were perfectly matched. Out of the two cases, I pulled 1 of each rare, 3 of each uncommon, and 8 of each common.

This is certainly the only time this will ever happen to me. Maybe it is karma for the 5 cases of archfiends that I opened and still had to trade for an Aspect of Bane...



Nice,I've never heard of someone opening 2 perfectly matched cases.

It likely can only happen as a consequence of how they were packed - the chance of it happening randomly is effectively nil. But interesting, I had wondered if it were possible due to packaging artifacts.

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11/11/2006 9:40 PM  
I've been purchasing 3-4 cases of each set since Dragoneye, and I've NEVER gotten a complete set from purchases. For you to have routinely pulled complete sets from only 3 cases....I need to have you at my side the next time I go to Atlantic City!

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Montreal, Canada

11/11/2006 11:59 PM  
There's the first complain about BW distribution i've heard.

I bought two case and i need only 3 rares to complete the collection.

Many case was bought by friend of mine (overall that mean around 50 cases) and nobody was cursed by double in one case or case similarity...


http://joepatent.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=25

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11/13/2006 9:39 AM  
Out of 9 cases I had zero duplicates within a case.
HOWEVER,
I did end up with
8 Kolyaruts
8 Air Gensai Swashbucklers
8 Bralani Eladrins
Talk about bad luck, these 3 hounded me case after case.  Bleah! I wish I had Oryan77's luck.

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11/13/2006 9:50 AM  
Posted By ScruffyRanger on 11/10/2006 6:47 PM
Complain? I was of the understanding that we're not to complain about anything... in particular WoTC products?

No one is saying you can't complain as long as it's done respectfully.
Saying, "I'm upset at getting dupe rares in my case" is much different than saying.
"I got dupe rares in my case. Those idiots don't know what they're doing"

The first is acceptable. The second is not.

Posted By Star on 11/10/2006 7:28 PM
We can complain about anything we'd like. And if we do so in an intelligent and constructive way - there's even the possibility that someone will listen.
Well said.
However, some feel the need to make rude personal attacks and think WotC is personally trying to screw them.

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11/13/2006 9:54 AM  
Posted By Vrecknidj on 11/11/2006 4:01 AM
I think DJ_Chuckles was lucky, really, to have had that kind of attention from aliens.



Dave

Yeah, but that attention will probably soon lead to "probing." No one needs that level of attention from the aliens.


WotC - making me wish more and more every day for a return to the TSR days. :(
I fought the snark and the snark won. I'm baaaaaaaaaaack!

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I actually love to be swallowed. - Posted By gss_000 on 09/04/2007 2:32 PM
Could somebody explain Snatch to me? I understand the basics, but not how to enter/use it. - Posted by orcmonk220
G's the man. - Posted By greyhaze on 11/11/2008 8:58 AM
I dont mind butting heads every once in a while. It makes thing interesting. Thats why I'd be heartbroken if Ghendar ever left - Posted By Count Dooku on 04/03/2006 11:58 AM
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11/13/2006 10:19 AM  
They do not guaranty you will not get duplicates. If you got 2 Horned Devils would you still complain?

Lord of Blades sucks, but at least he's not a unique.

You could do what I do, and just buy online singles.


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11/13/2006 2:14 PM  
Out of 4 cases that my group purchased, there were no duplicates within the cases.

Of course, it sounds funny to me, to hear complaints about distribution with randomly packaged minis. hehe.

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11/13/2006 5:01 PM  
Posted By sam500 on 11/13/2006 9:39 AM
Out of 9 cases I had zero duplicates within a case.
HOWEVER,
I did end up with
8 Kolyaruts
8 Air Gensai Swashbucklers
8 Bralani Eladrins
Talk about bad luck, these 3 hounded me case after case.  Bleah! I wish I had Oryan77's luck.


Sounds good for your medium rares. Those are all critters you can use multiples of in skirmish. Beats 8 Storms and Vlakis. (and probably Dragonkiths)

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11/13/2006 5:02 PM  
Posted By Ghendar on 11/13/2006 9:54 AM
Posted By Vrecknidj on 11/11/2006 4:01 AM
I think DJ_Chuckles was lucky, really, to have had that kind of attention from aliens.



Dave

Yeah, but that attention will probably soon lead to "probing." No one needs that level of attention from the aliens.



Depends on if they buy you dinner first.

Champion of Prit(Wemic vindication is here)
Minneapolis/St. Paul area
Completed trades: Aspect of Cheese (Love that moniker), Tickparasite, Elderthing, Lalato, Sodj, Grimoire, SmilinIrish, Zeb, RWarehall,Link, wikkawikkawa, Auramancer, Rommers, HK, Ivid5,Qillan_dvra, Puggins, Arcabius, Ironfist Boulderbender, Robby, Corim Danex, monster_slayer, DNDJUNKIE, Kelemvor, Krush, ckissee, Massawyrm, hockey fan, Wish, Uninspiring Lieutenant, vtloon x2, Vrecknidj, Darthpoke, WakeXX, AnarionZell, lycusmike, papabear5 and umpteen local trades with board members
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