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sage_raistlin
Sergeant
377 Posts
    
 | | 08/18/2007 7:12 AM |
| So anyone want to take a stab on if 4.0 is going to make the secondary Market crash like it did for Mage Knight or is it going to make them more desirable due to the change in the looks of the artwork/figures?
I'm guessing there will be a large drop in the figures that are currenlty used in DDM that will not have new cards issued. The market will get flooded with these figures and RPG's may be interested in some and pick them up, but I wonder is there are going to be a lot of them sitting on ebay collecting dust.. Something tells me the Beholders just went up a few bucks and possibly the trolls and dragons too. | |
Hello Boys, I'm Back
Vindicated Champion of the Bat
(not pretty, but it still counts) | |
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XAos
Underboss
2413 Posts
London
| | 08/20/2007 6:13 AM |
| The players who want the old style beholder because they continue to play 3.5. Will be exactly the type of players who already own 4 of the old style beholders.
The ebay market won't collapse, since most of the figures will still be valuable for RPG play. but it certainly won't improve.
When the "All-star 60" are announced it's likely the market in those will improve as players try to get any figures that wern't worth having in ddm 1.0
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| The Great
Choco Monster
Ghendar
Warlord
13099 Posts
Mud Lick, Kentucky
| | 08/20/2007 6:38 AM |
| Posted By XAos on 08/20/2007 6:13 AM
The players who want the old style beholder because they continue to play 3.5. Will be exactly the type of players who already own 4 of the old style beholders.
The idea that you will have to get a new Beholder for 4E just because the existing 3EÂ one doesn't exactly match the 4E artwork is silly, foolish, and stupid. I'm sorry if that offends anyone but the whole idea is just insipid.
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WotC - making me wish more and more every day for a return to the TSR days. :(
I fought the snark and the snark won. I'm baaaaaaaaaaack!
Some of my favorite Maxminis quotes
I actually love to be swallowed. - Posted By gss_000 on 09/04/2007 2:32 PM
Could somebody explain Snatch to me? I understand the basics, but not how to enter/use it. - Posted by orcmonk220
G's the man. - Posted By greyhaze on 11/11/2008 8:58 AM
I dont mind butting heads every once in a while. It makes thing interesting. Thats why I'd be heartbroken if Ghendar ever left - Posted By Count Dooku on 04/03/2006 11:58 AM
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PaSquall
Underboss
1399 Posts
| | 08/20/2007 6:49 AM |
| Posted By sage_raistlin on 08/18/2007 7:12 AM
So anyone want to take a stab on if 4.0 is going to make the secondary Market crash like it did for Mage Knight or is it going to make them more desirable due to the change in the looks of the artwork/figures?
I'm guessing there will be a large drop in the figures that are currenlty used in DDM that will not have new cards issued. The market will get flooded with these figures and RPG's may be interested in some and pick them up, but I wonder is there are going to be a lot of them sitting on ebay collecting dust..ÂSomething tells me the Beholders just went up a few bucks and possibly the trolls and dragons too.
Not even sure. These are classics, and will probably be redone very quickly in DDM 2.0 (in fact these 3 kind of minis may even be in Dungeons of dread). DDM 2.0-ers and D&D 4E-ers won't have an incentive to buy the older versions, and the people who could be interested in them either :
- already have them, and would like more, BUT AT A CHEAP PRICE.
- don't have them, but don't want to get them at crazy prices (because they would already have got them if money wasn't a problem).
Of course, these minis appeal to RPGers and should not drop too much in price, but I don't see them going up, at least in 2008 (after that, a "collector effect" could happen and price could slowly grow again, but that's not even sure).
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Vindicated Champion of the PSEUDODRAGON
(Unhappy) vindicated champion of the DRYAD
Against the giants called shot : huge cloud giant female
Demonweb called shot : ghost | |
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Shottglazz
Underboss
1184 Posts
Quinte West, Ontario, Canada
| | 08/20/2007 6:49 AM |
| | I agree Ghendar, but a lot of collectors will want the new ones, and if ppl are going to skirmish in tourneys I doubt they will allow proxies... | |
Shottglazz
"Take my love, take my land, take me where I cannot stand;
I don't care, I'm still free, you can't take the sky from me."
Completed trades ( 53 ): Pikel, Darrell x2, JeffDHarvey, BiggPappa001, Ghendar, Valinrook X2, Wolfgang x4, Wraithborne x6, Mr Ruffles, Anothermullen, CKissee x3, Browns_Scoundrel, Kyrin, GuJiaXian x2, Tyngfumv, Basic_Aim, Mickey Mouse, Berus316, Crisisman, Zoons, Rockfrd, Sterling40 x2, Brucemc, 2007 Magical Mystery Trade, Redskullz x2, Stephengroy, Lyus_Sleyden, Foolforthought, 2008 Magical Mystery Trade, Kilsek x4, Generic Fighter, Auric, Relientkitten x3
Pending trades ( 0 ):
WotC trades ( 1 ): Red_Deceiver
Bad trades ( 2 ): LeftEyeofGruumsh, Yotebeth | |
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Autoxdsm
Sergeant
814 Posts
Myrtle Beach, SC
| | 08/20/2007 7:28 AM |
| | but you can use an old beholder if they make a new one for 2.0, right??? |
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Champion of the Brainstealer Dragon
Desert of Desolation Called Shot: Medium Brown Dragon
***Winner of WBC VIII and XII*** | |
| The Great
Choco Monster
Ghendar
Warlord
13099 Posts
Mud Lick, Kentucky
| | 08/20/2007 7:58 AM |
| Posted By Shottglazz on 08/20/2007 6:49 AM
I agree Ghendar, but a lot of collectors will want the new ones, and if ppl are going to skirmish in tourneys I doubt they will allow proxies...
I was speaking from an RPG perspective. I should have stated that. You're right about skirmish though.
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WotC - making me wish more and more every day for a return to the TSR days. :(
I fought the snark and the snark won. I'm baaaaaaaaaaack!
Some of my favorite Maxminis quotes
I actually love to be swallowed. - Posted By gss_000 on 09/04/2007 2:32 PM
Could somebody explain Snatch to me? I understand the basics, but not how to enter/use it. - Posted by orcmonk220
G's the man. - Posted By greyhaze on 11/11/2008 8:58 AM
I dont mind butting heads every once in a while. It makes thing interesting. Thats why I'd be heartbroken if Ghendar ever left - Posted By Count Dooku on 04/03/2006 11:58 AM
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| The Great
Choco Monster
Ghendar
Warlord
13099 Posts
Mud Lick, Kentucky
| | 08/20/2007 8:00 AM |
| Posted By Autoxdsm on 08/20/2007 7:28 AM
but you can use an old beholder if they make a new one for 2.0, right???
The actual figure? I think yes you should be able to, but they will come up with some stupid reason not to allow DDM 1.0 figures as proxies. You would still need a 2.0 stat card though.
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WotC - making me wish more and more every day for a return to the TSR days. :(
I fought the snark and the snark won. I'm baaaaaaaaaaack!
Some of my favorite Maxminis quotes
I actually love to be swallowed. - Posted By gss_000 on 09/04/2007 2:32 PM
Could somebody explain Snatch to me? I understand the basics, but not how to enter/use it. - Posted by orcmonk220
G's the man. - Posted By greyhaze on 11/11/2008 8:58 AM
I dont mind butting heads every once in a while. It makes thing interesting. Thats why I'd be heartbroken if Ghendar ever left - Posted By Count Dooku on 04/03/2006 11:58 AM
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10493 Posts
United States
| | 08/20/2007 8:26 AM |
| I'm guessing that we'll see a dip for some of the pieces. Some of the commons and uncommons might fall a bit, but, given that when 4e comes out, people will still want minis and that there won't be many 4e minis out yet, most of the minis in existence right now should retain much of their value.
Just a guess.
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Zoons
Underboss
1067 Posts
| | 08/20/2007 8:41 AM |
| The floor rules on proxies for DDM say that (paraphrasing) you can use an altered/repainted mini as long as it is clearly recognizable and cannot cause confusion by being mistaken for another mini or just causing confusion in general.  In the case of the Beholder, I'm assuming that WotC will not produce two Version 2.0 Beholders anytime soon. I don't believe that the model is possible to confuse with any other creature nor is it particularly difficult to figure out what it represents "a beholder". Therefore, I'm assuming you could proxy the old one for the new one after printing yourself a card.
However, in the case of pieces like the many Orcs we currently have and likely will have in the next sets to come, this proxying would not work. Once there are more than one version 2.0 Orc model, one could easily argue that using a proxy makes the orc in your warband not easily recognizable as the DDM piece that it represents. As more new sets of 2.0 models are released, proxying will become less and less possible.
I completely agree with Ghendar in the case of RPG. If my players can't figure out that my 3.5 beholder is now a 4.0 Beholder just because the sculpt is slightly different from the new picture in the new MM, I need new players, not a new model. | |
Never teach a pig to sing. It's a waste of time and it annoys the pig.
Champion of the Blink Dog. | |
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PaSquall
Underboss
1399 Posts
| | 08/20/2007 11:28 AM |
| Posted By Vrecknidj on 08/20/2007 8:26 AM
I'm guessing that we'll see a dip for some of the pieces. Some of the commons and uncommons might fall a bit, but, given that when 4e comes out, people will still want minis and that there won't be many 4e minis out yet, most of the minis in existence right now should retain much of their value.
Just a guess.
Dave
It depends.
Dungeons of dread : april 2008. Â Following set (name ?) : july 2008. At that time, 4.0 will have just begun (as DMG is scheduled for july) so there will already be 120 minis to start with 4.0. And many of them will be classics, if Dungeons of dread is really a "new harbinger".
You can possibly argue that 120 minis is not much, but I think it's quite enough for many groups and campaigns. And you get 60 more minis every 4 months...
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Vindicated Champion of the PSEUDODRAGON
(Unhappy) vindicated champion of the DRYAD
Against the giants called shot : huge cloud giant female
Demonweb called shot : ghost | |
|
Username
Warlord
5692 Posts
| | 08/20/2007 12:29 PM |
| | I don't believe that skirmishers have a large effect on most secondary market values, as there are only a handful of pieces that skirmishers are after. I believe the RPGers and collectors are the ones that drive the values. We will just have to wait and see what happens. | |
Originally posted by Schooly_D
Username - he deals in minis
Champion of Lhesh Haruuc Shaarat'kor | |
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Nyarlathotep333
Warrior
287 Posts
Alaska
| | 08/20/2007 12:30 PM |
| The other thought I just had was why (now that it has become apparent that most older minis won't convert over to DDM 2.0) would anyone want to buy the Deathknell reprint that should be hitting the shelves sometime soon? I wonder why they are even bothering with a reprint. Since it sounds like the "All Stars" minis will only contain 60 minis from the older sets it is unlikely that anything from this set will see conversion other than perhaps the Couatl, Beholder and Timber Wolf. I'm guessing that the 2.0 announcement will most likely hurt the sales of this reprint when it happens. Of course there are some good minis in the set for RPG use too so it may still do OK I guess.
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Demonweb Called Shot: Myconid
Feywild Called Shot: Wolf
Champion of the Zombie Black Dragon
- N333
The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that when a thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes wrong it usually turns out to be impossible to get at or repair.
- Douglas Adams, Mostly Harmless
To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women!
- Conan the Barbarian, on what is best in life
My Website - Be sure to check out my painted minis gallery!
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basic_aim
Sneak
172 Posts
London ON. Canada
| | 08/20/2007 12:47 PM |
| Wow
IMO some pieces will go down the tubes but most will either say the same or increase in value here's the reasons why
1) They'll be no more 3.5 minis made after DoD and there is lots of players still looking for certain minis for RPG that's not going to change.
2) Most of the DDM minis bought today are for RPG not for DDM besause lets face it a skrimish game having to retool evey 4 months gets expensive quick so I'd say that 66% to 75% of DDM is bought for RPG not DDM
3) There will be alot of players that don't make the leap to 4e just like there hardcore gamers that are still playing 1e 2e and 3.5 they won't play 4e because they're happy with the edition they're playing now it's the one great draw about D&D you're only limited by your imagination as to how many different games and themes you can run
All that being said I'm sure that short term those peeps that panic will drive the price down for a while but in the long run the secondary market will be just find but if your investing in little bits of plastic to profit maybe you should spend your money on something else, ie stocks bonds lotto tickets professinal help | |
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Bert the Troll
Commander
3964 Posts
Adelaide
| | 08/20/2007 4:23 PM |
| Posted By Zoons on 08/20/2007 8:41 AM The floor rules on proxies for DDM say that (paraphrasing) you can use an altered/repainted mini as long as it is clearly recognizable and cannot cause confusion by being mistaken for another mini or just causing confusion in general.  In the case of the Beholder, I'm assuming that WotC will not produce two Version 2.0 Beholders anytime soon. I don't believe that the model is possible to confuse with any other creature nor is it particularly difficult to figure out what it represents "a beholder". Therefore, I'm assuming you could proxy the old one for the new one after printing yourself a card.
However, in the case of pieces like the many Orcs we currently have and likely will have in the next sets to come, this proxying would not work. Once there are more than one version 2.0 Orc model, one could easily argue that using a proxy makes the orc in your warband not easily recognizable as the DDM piece that it represents. As more new sets of 2.0 models are released, proxying will become less and less possible.
I completely agree with Ghendar in the case of RPG. If my players can't figure out that my 3.5 beholder is now a 4.0 Beholder just because the sculpt is slightly different from the new picture in the new MM, I need new players, not a new model.
The base has to match the mini card too.
I feel certain that the older minis will not be allowed for DCI games.
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"Mutton yesterday, mutton today, and blimey, if it don't look like mutton again tomorrer." Bert the Troll - The Hobbit
Semi-Secret sig business: "In the age of the internet attaching a famous name to your personal opinion to give more weight to it is a very valid strategy." - Benjamin Franklin
Champion of Epic Lolth, Orcus, & Demogorgon and bring us Asmodeus! | |
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Most Edumacated
zenthrus
Warlord
5132 Posts
SLC, UT
| | 08/20/2007 8:21 PM |
| Posted By Bert the Troll on 08/20/2007 4:23 PM
The base has to match the mini card too.
Not true according to the DCI floor rules. Otherwise, Chainmail equivs wouldn't be tournament legal.
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Knight Warlord a.k.a. Commander (#32) in only 6 months. Where's my pie?
Champion of Dwarven Thunderlashers
Knight of the Large Dire Chicken
Have/Want List
Trade References | |
| Master of the
Awesome Sauce
Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 08/20/2007 8:29 PM |
| Yeah, Proxies deinitely won't be allowed, I'm very confident on that. But, that's the nature of a competitive collectible environment.
For RPG, they're all still usable. Besides, how many different variations on a species are there? more tha one, i would say. More sculpts, better.
Plus, G-Cube and new Umber Hulk Owns my Bones [TM] | |
Official Delegate, Wizards of the Coast
Icons Called Shot: Gargantuan Prismatic Dragon
"Rejoice, for bad things are about to happen." | |
|
arbados
Underboss
1450 Posts
New York, USA
| | 08/20/2007 9:29 PM |
| | I doubt the prices will vary too much. In truth for RPG use it is great if they come out with alternate sculpts of creatures already made. I would love to get another beholder mini that looks very different than the previous one. Also how far can they change the look of some of these creatures anyways in 4th edition. I think they will continue to maintain the current look for just about 90% of them with maybe some minor variations. However, if they make the beholder have the scaly look it doesn't really matter. Any DM and player worth their salt will know it is a beholder. Do you really think they will change the mind flayer to no longer have tentacles and in 4th edition have a long pony tail and mane!!! Come on. They will all be pretty much the same and be just as useable! If the prices do fall then all the better for me. Bring on the mid flayers for $5 a pop! I will buy them all. | |
Give me more MIND FLAYERS! | |
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Bert the Troll
Commander
3964 Posts
Adelaide
| | 08/21/2007 4:05 PM |
| Posted By zenthrus on 08/20/2007 8:21 PM Posted By Bert the Troll on 08/20/2007 4:23 PM
The base has to match the mini card too.
Not true according to the DCI floor rules. Otherwise, Chainmail equivs wouldn't be tournament legal.
-
Chaimmail pieces have had a specific entry allowing them and the approved substitutes in DCI floor rules.
They could do similar for Original DDM but it needs to be listed in floor rules. | |
"Mutton yesterday, mutton today, and blimey, if it don't look like mutton again tomorrer." Bert the Troll - The Hobbit
Semi-Secret sig business: "In the age of the internet attaching a famous name to your personal opinion to give more weight to it is a very valid strategy." - Benjamin Franklin
Champion of Epic Lolth, Orcus, & Demogorgon and bring us Asmodeus! | |
| The Great
Choco Monster
Ghendar
Warlord
13099 Posts
Mud Lick, Kentucky
| | 08/21/2007 4:21 PM |
| Posted By Teflon Jeff on 08/20/2007 8:29 PM
Yeah, Proxies deinitely won't be allowed, I'm very confident on that. But, that's the nature of a competitive collectible environment.
I wonder why that is because it seems to make no sense whatsoever. What is the detriment to the game if you're using a 1.0 Beholder figure with a 2.0 beholder card. All that really matters is the stat card. The figure could be a wooden block. Who cares?
Has Shoe or anyone else ever explained why this is so?
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WotC - making me wish more and more every day for a return to the TSR days. :(
I fought the snark and the snark won. I'm baaaaaaaaaaack!
Some of my favorite Maxminis quotes
I actually love to be swallowed. - Posted By gss_000 on 09/04/2007 2:32 PM
Could somebody explain Snatch to me? I understand the basics, but not how to enter/use it. - Posted by orcmonk220
G's the man. - Posted By greyhaze on 11/11/2008 8:58 AM
I dont mind butting heads every once in a while. It makes thing interesting. Thats why I'd be heartbroken if Ghendar ever left - Posted By Count Dooku on 04/03/2006 11:58 AM
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| Master of the
Awesome Sauce
Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 08/22/2007 9:24 AM |
| | I would bet confusion and play time. It's why you can only Mod so much of a mini. Plus, from a sales point of view, you want people to be buying the new ones. | |
Official Delegate, Wizards of the Coast
Icons Called Shot: Gargantuan Prismatic Dragon
"Rejoice, for bad things are about to happen." | |
| Man of Renown
Wraithborne
Warlord
5309 Posts
The Red Light District
| | 08/22/2007 9:30 AM |
| Posted By Teflon Jeff on 08/22/2007 9:24 AM
I would bet confusion and play time. It's why you can only Mod so much of a mini. Plus, from a sales point of view, you want people to be buying the new ones.
Emphasis mine. That, ladies and gentlefolk (gotta sound 3.x there) is what I believe is the key reason you won't be allowed to use old minis as proxies. | |
Eye dun no why youse guys think im not relly a person im jimgang from canada but im moving to cali as soon as i get a master card
-Jimgang
So, you stand at your grave, Has your soul yet been taken away?
So you can't read what's engraved, Is this Heaven or merely Decay?
Was there a light, enchantingly bright, A Question, just how did it end?
Just let me sift through your calm remains, And tear you away from your skin.
-Sumerias Fain. | |
| The Great
Choco Monster
Ghendar
Warlord
13099 Posts
Mud Lick, Kentucky
| | 08/22/2007 9:33 AM |
| Posted By Teflon Jeff on 08/22/2007 9:24 AM
I would bet confusion and play time. It's why you can only Mod so much of a mini. Plus, from a sales point of view, you want people to be buying the new ones.
That I understand. However, from a conceptual standpoint it isn't logical. Again, what really matters is the stat card.
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WotC - making me wish more and more every day for a return to the TSR days. :(
I fought the snark and the snark won. I'm baaaaaaaaaaack!
Some of my favorite Maxminis quotes
I actually love to be swallowed. - Posted By gss_000 on 09/04/2007 2:32 PM
Could somebody explain Snatch to me? I understand the basics, but not how to enter/use it. - Posted by orcmonk220
G's the man. - Posted By greyhaze on 11/11/2008 8:58 AM
I dont mind butting heads every once in a while. It makes thing interesting. Thats why I'd be heartbroken if Ghendar ever left - Posted By Count Dooku on 04/03/2006 11:58 AM
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| The Great
Choco Monster
Ghendar
Warlord
13099 Posts
Mud Lick, Kentucky
| | 08/22/2007 9:34 AM |
| Posted By Teflon Jeff on 08/22/2007 9:24 AM
I would bet confusion and play time. It's why you can only Mod so much of a mini. Plus, from a sales point of view, you want people to be buying the new ones.
What about a wooden block with straws glued to the top to simulate eye stalks?
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WotC - making me wish more and more every day for a return to the TSR days. :(
I fought the snark and the snark won. I'm baaaaaaaaaaack!
Some of my favorite Maxminis quotes
I actually love to be swallowed. - Posted By gss_000 on 09/04/2007 2:32 PM
Could somebody explain Snatch to me? I understand the basics, but not how to enter/use it. - Posted by orcmonk220
G's the man. - Posted By greyhaze on 11/11/2008 8:58 AM
I dont mind butting heads every once in a while. It makes thing interesting. Thats why I'd be heartbroken if Ghendar ever left - Posted By Count Dooku on 04/03/2006 11:58 AM
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Zoons
Underboss
1067 Posts
| | 08/22/2007 12:55 PM |
| Posted By Ghendar on 08/22/2007 9:34 AM
What about a wooden block with straws glued to the top to simulate eye stalks?
Only if you promise to paint a big eye and teeth on the front. Preferably "catfish" style art.
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Never teach a pig to sing. It's a waste of time and it annoys the pig.
Champion of the Blink Dog. | |
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Mjollnir
Underboss
1500 Posts
Canary Islands - Spain
| | 08/22/2007 4:37 PM |
| Posted By Ghendar on 08/20/2007 6:38 AM Posted By XAos on 08/20/2007 6:13 AM
The players who want the old style beholder because they continue to play 3.5. Will be exactly the type of players who already own 4 of the old style beholders.
The idea that you will have to get a new Beholder for 4E just because the existing 3EÂ one doesn't exactly match the 4E artwork is silly, foolish, and stupid. I'm sorry if that offends anyone but the whole idea is just insipid.
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Champion of the Molydeus
Vindicated Blood War Called Shot: Cornugon (Horned Devil)
Icons Called Shot: Tarrasque
Vindicated Dungeon of Dread Called Shot: Mind Flayer
Against the Giants Called Shot: Uncommon Fire Giant
Demonweb Called Shot: Myrlochar
Feywild Called Shot: Molydeus
"Sé que me acusan de soberbia, y tal vez de misantropía, y tal vez de locura. Tales acusaciones (que yo castigaré a su debido tiempo) son irrisorias." - Jorge Luis Borges
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| Master of the
Awesome Sauce
Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 08/22/2007 7:02 PM |
| Posted By Zoons on 08/22/2007 12:55 PM Posted By Ghendar on 08/22/2007 9:34 AM
What about a wooden block with straws glued to the top to simulate eye stalks?
Only if you promise to paint a big eye and teeth on the front. Preferably "catfish" style art.
If that happened, I'd allow it. | |
Official Delegate, Wizards of the Coast
Icons Called Shot: Gargantuan Prismatic Dragon
"Rejoice, for bad things are about to happen." | |
| Knight of the
Round Table
Thenameless
Warlord
12507 Posts
The Fortress of Solitude
| | 08/25/2007 2:09 AM |
| Posted By sage_raistlin on 08/18/2007 7:12 AM
I'm guessing there will be a large drop in the figures that are currenlty used in DDM that will not have new cards issued. The market will get flooded with these figures and RPG's may be interested in some and pick them up, but I wonder is there are going to be a lot of them sitting on ebay collecting dust.. Something tells me the Beholders just went up a few bucks and possibly the trolls and dragons too.
This is almost sure to happen. It has upset more than a few collectors. | |
Over 270 successful online DDM trades. | |
|
mazra
Sergeant
442 Posts
Canton, GA
| | 08/25/2007 6:43 PM |
| Hi Everyone, I am sure many of you have touched on these points. I have noticed two interesting events on Ebay. 1.) When the Drzzt (Huge White Dragon) scenario pack was announced, the average selling prices of Archfiend Drzzts took a $10 tp $15 average price sell fall. 2.) Shortly after the Umber Hulk preview for the Desert of Desolation, the Harbinger Umber Hulk took about a $10 drop in price. In both cases, the price drop has remained constant. I personally do not believe this to be a coincidental fluctuations in the buyer's market.  IMHO it is a direct result of what happens when the collectibility of the DDM line is deluded by resculpts. With 4.0 another Umber Hulk will delude the values even further. WOTC may be killing the collectibility of the line. This would cause me to stop collecting DDMs.  I would just sit tight and watch the DDMs prices plummet and buy the few minis I may like to buy directly on Ebay for my RPG campaign.
Now WOTC could limit this by being very careful of the number of resculpts over time; or if the resculpts are of some significant difference or distinction from the earlier sets. Guy Fullerton on the WOTC DDM board has suggested an excellent scheme for WOTC to ally any new 4.0 sculpts with the same or similar corresponding sculpts from 3.5. For instance the 4.0 Umber Hulk card may reference the Harbinger and Desert sculpts as acceptabe proxies in Skirmish. In the end there would be 3 Umber Hulks DDM sculpts out there.  And if kept at this level, over time, the rarity will increase, along with the price. However, if WOTC elects to create a dozen different Umber Hulk sculpts, even over the next three to five years, then you can say good bye to any real value for anyone that owns a Harbinger Umber Hulk.
Thanks for your time,
Mazra  | | | |
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Tyrant
Skirmisher
15 Posts
| | 08/25/2007 9:00 PM |
| Posted By mazra on 08/25/2007 6:43 PM 2.) Shortly after the Umber Hulk preview for the Desert of Desolation, the Harbinger Umber Hulk took about a $10 drop in price. In both cases, the price drop has remained constant. I personally do not believe this to be a coincidental fluctuations in the buyer's market.  IMHO it is a direct result of what happens when the collectibility of the DDM line is deluded by resculpts. With 4.0 another Umber Hulk will delude the values even further. WOTC may be killing the collectibility of the line. This would cause me to stop collecting DDMs.  I would just sit tight and watch the DDMs prices plummet and buy the few minis I may like to buy directly on Ebay for my RPG campaign.
Now WOTC could limit this by being very careful of the number of resculpts over time; or if the resculpts are of some significant difference or distinction from the earlier sets. Guy Fullerton on the WOTC DDM board has suggested an excellent scheme for WOTC to ally any new 4.0 sculpts with the same or similar corresponding sculpts from 3.5. For instance the 4.0 Umber Hulk card may reference the Harbinger and Desert sculpts as acceptabe proxies in Skirmish. In the end there would be 3 Umber Hulks DDM sculpts out there.  And if kept at this level, over time, the rarity will increase, along with the price. However, if WOTC elects to create a dozen different Umber Hulk sculpts, even over the next three to five years, then you can say good bye to any real value for anyone that owns a Harbinger Umber Hulk.
Thanks for your time,
Mazra Â
I believe we share some of the same ideals. I too wish for my figures to maintain some kind of monetary value. However, I accept that there will be resculpts (preferrably with different stats) of older figures. I believe this is less damaging in the long run than reprinting an older set. To believe there would only be 1 Beholder for instance, is beyond naive. I believe they remain collectible in spite of new versions of old figures. The old version loses a little appeal, but it is still the original and if it was popular enough to warrant a remake as a new rare, the overall desire for any mini of that creature won't drop too dramatically. In the short term, the new one will be drastically cheaper and the old one will lose some value. In the long term, both will increase in value. Don't think next month or next year if you are wanting a real return on these. Think 5 years or more down the road when what we call rare now is actually rare. As for the Umber Hulk, don't worry. There won't be 3 in the near future. The DoD1 version is the 4th edition version (or at least a version from 4th rdition). All but one of the monsters in DoD1 are from the new Monster Manual. The one that isn't is a preview figure of MM 2. | |
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mazra
Sergeant
442 Posts
Canton, GA
| | 08/26/2007 5:53 AM |
| Posted By Tyrant on 08/25/2007 9:00 PM Posted By mazra on 08/25/2007 6:43 PM
The announcement about the Umber Hulk was made when? Less than a month ago. I don't think the market activity of less than one month is anything I would use to make an argument. Especially if that month is the month of GenCon. The counter argument to the drop could be that people were saving up money for the con, or that they planned on trying to find it there, or that they were at the con and not on Ebay. And now they are getting over how much they spent at teh con, or reconsidering buying any older figures in light of the new news. I'm not saying you're wrong (I agree in the case of Drizzt and agree this is likely the case here as well) but I wouldn't stake any claims on what can be viewed as weak evidence.
I believe we share some of the same ideals. I too wish for my figures to maintain some kind of monetary value. However, I accept that there will be resculpts (preferrably with different stats) of older figures. I believe this is less damaging in the long run than reprinting an older set. To believe there would only be 1 Beholder for instance, is beyond naive. I believe they remain collectible in spite of new versions of old figures. The old version loses a little appeal, but it is still the original and if it was popular enough to warrant a remake as a new rare, the overall desire for any mini of that creature won't drop too dramatically. In the short term, the new one will be drastically cheaper and the old one will lose some value. In the long term, both will increase in value. Don't think next month or next year if you are wanting a real return on these. Think 5 years or more down the road when what we call rare now is actually rare. As for the Umber Hulk, don't worry. There won't be 3 in the near future. The DoD1 version is the 4th edition version (or at least a version from 4th rdition). All but one of the monsters in DoD1 are from the new Monster Manual. The one that isn't is a preview figure of MM 2.
I don't usually communicate with Tyrants. 
The Harbinger Umber Hulk has dropped in price on Ebay. I believe it will likely fall further when the next set is released. I would think this is logical. It will fall when a 4.0 Umber Hulk is released. Again, I would think this is logical. If WOTC can contain themselves, and stop at that point, then over time, the Umber Hulks will rebound, though honestly I doubt to some of the levels we have seen in the past. I really hope I am wrong about this, but we do have to accept the possibility I may be right.
I do not believe I said that there should be only one Beholder. It is obvious that WOTC will make another. I just hope that WOTC does not make an entire community of them.
Actually, I am not looking for any return on my investment. This is my hobby. What does concern me, is that if the value of the DDM line falls too much, then the collectibility will in turn fall. When this happens, and when many collectors are satisfied with what they already have, then people will stop buying DDMs cases and boosters. Obviously, when this happens, then Hasbro will tell WOTC to stop producing them. I don't believe any on us on this board really wants that. My concerns are for the future of the DDM line. I believe that the SWM line will come to an end, and probably very soon, because they will just run out of things to make, and have way too many resculpts. WOTC has the capability, if they are smart and wise in their planning, to continue the DDM line for very many years. They have to be careful not to delude the value of the collectibility. They have already done this with Drzzt. Unique rares should NEVER be reproduced. Unfortunately for us collectors, businesses like Hasbro has very little foresight.
I really do hope that 5 years from now that my DDMs will still have value. It will all depend squarely on the wisdom and care WOTC puts into future releases.
Thanks,
Mazra
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PaSquall
Underboss
1399 Posts
| | 08/26/2007 11:46 AM |
| Posted By Tyrant on 08/25/2007 9:00 PM
All but one of the monsters in DoD1 are from the new Monster Manual. The one that isn't is a preview figure of MM 2.
It is assumed that the last mini is Derry's mini (2006 DDM champion).
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Vindicated Champion of the PSEUDODRAGON
(Unhappy) vindicated champion of the DRYAD
Against the giants called shot : huge cloud giant female
Demonweb called shot : ghost | |
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Tyrant
Skirmisher
15 Posts
| | 08/26/2007 6:42 PM |
| Posted By mazra on 08/26/2007 5:53 AM I don't usually communicate with Tyrants. The Harbinger Umber Hulk has dropped in price on Ebay. I believe it will likely fall further when the next set is released. I would think this is logical. It will fall when a 4.0 Umber Hulk is released. Again, I would think this is logical. If WOTC can contain themselves, and stop at that point, then over time, the Umber Hulks will rebound, though honestly I doubt to some of the levels we have seen in the past. I really hope I am wrong about this, but we do have to accept the possibility I may be right.
I believe that the SWM line will come to an end, and probably very soon, because they will just run out of things to make, and have way too many resculpts. WOTC has the capability, if they are smart and wise in their planning, to continue the DDM line for very many years. They have to be careful not to delude the value of the collectibility. They have already done this with Drzzt. Unique rares should NEVER be reproduced. Unfortunately for us collectors, businesses like Hasbro has very little foresight
I don't believe that they should limit themselves to just one of any unique figure. Having said that, if they make more than one, then they should be different stat wise and they should do so with care. Every set doesn't need a Drizzt, but to expect ony one be made is also naive. The new one should have been different stat wise as well as sculpt wise. Then they would truly be two different figures and have a better chance of maintaining collectibility.
As for Hasbro, I have faith that they at least somewhat understand the collector market. They figured out that the GIJoe line was almost entirely driven by collectors. They figured out that collectors wanted masses of the troop builder types (the faceless Cobra legions) and started packaging them together instead of pairing those types of figures up with unique personalities. Then they went back to single carded figures. The Star Wars figure line has fan favorite figures (literally, they are voted on) and figures of characters that got all of one frame of screen time. Only collectors would want those figures. They may not have completely figured out the collector mindset, but they are better understanding it as time goes on. | |
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| Master of the
Awesome Sauce
Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 08/26/2007 6:58 PM |
| Posted By PaSquall on 08/26/2007 11:46 AM Posted By Tyrant on 08/25/2007 9:00 PM
All but one of the monsters in DoD1 are from the new Monster Manual. The one that isn't is a preview figure of MM 2. It is assumed that the last mini is Derry's mini (2006 DDM champion).
and a solid assumption it is. I'm all for reprints, even though I have a lot of the old minis. More for everyone, as I say. It's just plastic, if you thought it was an investment, you may have made a poor choice for investing. | |
Official Delegate, Wizards of the Coast
Icons Called Shot: Gargantuan Prismatic Dragon
"Rejoice, for bad things are about to happen." | |
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Tardubal
Skirmisher
18 Posts
Slovakia
| | 08/27/2007 6:00 AM |
| I think we will see some movement in prices.
1. Minis representing new playable races will be more demanded - there will be new races available for PCs. If Tiefling will be core race in 4.0. tiefling miniatures will be in higher demand. Similarly races that will be rejected from core races might slightly decrease in value (even though people playing 3,5 and using them as NPC will keep value high). Similar effect will have inclusion/rejection of PC classes.
2. Minis that were great in skirmish in multiples and are not grantfathered or after remake are less effective will loose some value. Especially Rare figures (i.e. Xendrik Champion) if not grandfathered will not be demanded as much and should decrease in price.
3. Minis that will receive reasonable alternative - i.e. Umber Hulk will decrease in price. This is not result of 4.E, it is just result of resculpt in new set. RPGers will rather buy DoD Umber Hulk for 12 USD and leave Hbr Umber Hulk to collectors for 50 USD.
4. Minis that competed for some particular niche in DDM and have their competition "removed" by not grandfathering will rise in value. I.e. Zakya Rakshasa and Duergar champion are similar mid 30 beaters. If Duergar Champion makes it and Zakya does not, skirmishers will want DC to replace their outdated Zakyas in their toolkits. This will lead to increased price of DCs.
To sum up - I think prices will change slightly. Pieces sought after mostly by collectors will see almost no impact. Pieces sought after mostly by RPGers will also have low impact, except for new PC races and classes. Prices of pieces sought after by skirmishers will be influenced most. | |
Dal? Ja ti reknu co DAL! | |
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joedj
Skirmisher
35 Posts
olympia
| | 08/27/2007 11:19 AM |
| Posted By Username on 08/20/2007 12:29 PM
I don't believe that skirmishers have a large effect on most secondary market values, as there are only a handful of pieces that skirmishers are after. I believe the RPGers and collectors are the ones that drive the values. We will just have to wait and see what happens.
I am a skirmish-only player. I have over 50 armies, complete, ziplocked and ready for mostly pick-up games, but some for tourneys. I also have a reserve of about 100 minis of each faction awaiting the right army build.
A few gentlemen at our venue have dropped $500-1,000 each to join/play the skirmish game, not for RPG.
For-fun skirmish players may be a good part of the market, since they collect/play many, many sub-optimal pieces also.
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jgsugden
Commander
4320 Posts
Walnut Creek, CA
| | 08/27/2007 2:30 PM |
| Certain things will certainly drive down the price of older figures:
1.) If they make a new large red dragon that looks as good as or better than the one we have from Dragoneye, wouldn't that decrease your desire for the old one?
2.) If you only play skirmish and not RPG, wouldn't your desire for figures that you can't use under the new rules decrease?
3.) When you see a figure that you own but rarely use start to drop in price, don't you have the urge to sell it before the price drops too far?
Answers to these questions may differ, but the general populace would say that these three factos would drive down the value of older figuers. The extent of that lost value is yet to be determined. | |
Champion of Meepo _*_ Myztek on the Wizards Boards. _*_ (2206 DDM on 03/06/06)
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mazra
Sergeant
442 Posts
Canton, GA
| | 08/27/2007 3:47 PM |
| Posted By jgsugden on 08/27/2007 2:30 PM
Certain things will certainly drive down the price of older figures:
Hi jgsugden,
I see why you are the moderator. I really think you get it!
Let's face it; the price of DDMs are falling. How far they fall will depend on how important WOTC values the collectibility of the line. Recent actions by WOTC prove that they really do not understand collectibility, or more-likely even really care. Consider the following:
1.) The free-ranged chicken mini, also known as Tanis Half-Elven proxy was made a common of all things, when a Tanis Half-Elven figurine would have been a prized rare.
2.) You will now be able to get a Drzzt without even a rarity factor or randomization. All you have to do is buy our new Huge White Dragon.
3.) BTW-We are going to do it one better! We are going to give you an extra rare Wulfgar from the previous set. Isn't that special.
Dollar and cents my friends, this all WOTC really cares about. The collectibility of the DDM line is rapidly ending up in the toilet.  Now here is the problem. When the collectibilty of the line becomes severely deluded, then collectors will stop buying cases. That will leave RPGer to buy minis. But RPGers will begin to look at the falling secondary market to obtain the minis they need for their campaigns, especially when they already have much of what they need. Then that leaves the Skirmish players, which WOTC admits represents 33% of sales. When the DDM line is left to them, then HASBRO will say to WOTC, you are not selling enough DDMs. PULL THE LINE!
Now no one collects DDMs hoping to retire on them. That is silly. But most collectors, no matter what it is, like to see value in their collection. It adds luster and excitement. If I am repeating myself, forgive me, but one of the most exciting times I had in collecting DDMs was when I completed a trade where I gave up an bagged Harbinger Displacer Beast, card and all, for an out of bag, Drzzt and card. The Drzzt completed my Archfiends set. He was the one elusive figurine. The truly iconic character in D&D and I didn't have him. But now its no big deal. I am going to get another Drzzt with my Huge White Dragon. The problem is, I don't need another Drzzt or Wulfgar.
Thanks,
Mazra
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tirwin
Sergeant
462 Posts
North Dakota, USA
| | 08/27/2007 7:34 PM |
| It is nice to see minis going up in value as an owner of every one ever produced, but I would probably never get rid of mine and plan on playing D&D until I die, so if they do drop in value I will still always use them for RPG purposes. With no intent to ever sell it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things to me.Â
I do worry a little bit about a change in the look of the minis, as a change in artistic style would make the old and new minis clash (for lack of a better word?) on the gaming table. I hope the artistic design remains close to the original and maybe they can cure the size creep (dwarfs on roids, etc...) so I continue to want to collect.
Although I sometimes complain that collecting minis is too expensive I have to admit I still am addicted and hope to continue collecting. I have every mini from every set ever released thus far and plan to continue, but any significant price increase or a severe change in design or size would put an end to my collecting and I would be happy with the thousands upon thousands of minis I already have. I would probably buy the odd mini here or there on ebay that I like from new sets still, but that would be the extent of my collecting.
Wizards must be careful or they could lose a lot of business from collectors from what I am reading here, or the minis line could collapse and come to an end. No more new minis would be a bummer for sure so I hope they realize the need to be careful. I am not too worried about price as I said before but I would like the line to continue as long as the price WotC puts on them doesn't go up.
Like others have said before "it isn't a wise investment" and if that's what your in it for try stocks. But I fully understand the enjoyment of knowing they have a significant value, because if your like me it's either that or your completely insane for buying this many small pieces of plastic!!! But I would never sell mine anyway so in the grand scheme of things - oh well. | |
Here is my have want list:
http://www.maxminis.com/hw_list.asp?user=tirwin
Successful Trades: Irav222 (x2), Darkfather, Kaya Kenobi, conanb1, dudeeehm, Uk, Master Elminster, tmertz, Shasack, Drewskie, et39100 (x2), Gaddszooks (x4), Romers, Weinbergphp, Vaasic, Navaire, lurch_E_bean, dobblegog, cjmax, jthm, Meds x2, hellfire2, w33zrfan, unmaker, sthig, Eldarion, drowdude, DM Lackey, griffat, eryador, tsech (not sure if this is his screen name?), Jordan, entropysoda, MikeWis, HalifaxDM, Targan, Drakul, wraith428, dmindock, mythoscreature, Tenlado,Chaotic Good, Asteroidjawa, Puggins, Bdog, slapdragon, Drakkengi,WarRabbit(2), Mnpatsfan, Greymouse, Snapdragon, Isondaho, Halofurry, Krush, Ekomega, Amator, Minatoman38, + many new trades recorded by maxminis, and never had a bad trade so please help keep the streak alive, thanks!
Harbringer 80/80, Dragoneye 60/60, Archfiends 60/60, Giants of Legend 72/72, Aberrations 60/60, Deathknell 60/60, Angelfire 60/60, Underdark 60/60, War Drums 60/60, War of the Dragon Queen 60/60, Blood War 60/60, Unhallowed 60/60, Night Below 60/60, DoD 60/60, I'm done listing just assume I have them all because I do, thanks. | |
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nyjastul69
Commander
2731 Posts
Rhode Island
| | 08/28/2007 4:50 AM |
| Originally posted by mazra:
Then that leaves the Skirmish players, which WOTC admits represents 33% of sales.
I've suspected this, but WotC has actually said this. That surprises me. Do you have a source citation for that info? I'm not doubting you, but I'm curious where that info came from. | |
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