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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
    
 | | 03/28/2008 10:14 AM |
| There is a ton of prepainted plastic out there.
Some genres are completely saturated. Mechwarrior for RPG probably doesn't NEED any more at all.
Tons of boosters sit on the shelves and at the distributors. The original MW: Dark Age boosters are still available (released in 2002). Everything from 2005 on is still available - that's a ton of plastic battle mechs.
But more to the point - there is a lot of fantasy prepainted figs out there.
Mage Knight started the genre (Mage Knight: Rebellion in Nov. 2000) and it has two sets still at the distributors - Sorcery and Nexus (the best of set). Sorcery is late 2004 (circa Aberrations) and Nexus is August 2005 (just after Angelfire). Total game run was a little under 5 years and 2 editions. Mage Knight pumped 40 million pieces of plastic into the market in just the first 14 months. I couldn't find a total but I recall Wizkids liking to toss 'hundreds of millions of figs sold' around. I'd guess at least 150 million fantasy minis were produced (not necessarily in the hands of players). The rest of the 100s of millions were Heroclix, Mechwarrior, etc.
DDM launched in Sept. 2003 with Harbinger. The first 3 sets sold out within 2 set releases. After that only GoL and Aberrations are completely out of the pipeline. Wizards only has UH, NB, DoD and DuD in the warehouse (the 3 2007 sets and the first 2008 set). 6 sets are still available from distributors, and 4 of those have limited quantities. The following sets had reprints: Harbinger Starter, Dragoneye, Deathknell, and Underdark (maybe Blood War?). All the Dragons are still available (CRD is OOP but still available) which is probably why Orcus and the Dracolich are on hold.
So there are currently 10 sets which can be purchased at retail. Apparently WotC must be somewhat OK with having more than 6 sets in circulation but I think they'd get concerned if this time next year there are 13 sets in circulation. Basically Angelfire, Deathknell, and War Drums should probably clear the pipeline. Sales on these old sets seems llike it would be very slow especially with an edition change and reprints of some of their showcase figures.
As far as total minis produced, I don't know. One case I had said xxxxx of something like 10,000. That was a while ago so at least 1,000,000 per set and probably more like 5-15 million minis produced per set. Very close to half of those are commons.
Assuming a small number per set of 1,000,000 (10,416 case of 12 with 8 minis each), there are 5,208 of each rare, 15,624 of each uncommon, and 41,664 of each common.
So even if they produce more like 150,000 cases that's roughly 75,000 of each rare, 225,000 of each uncommon, and 600,000 of each common.
Using a rough number of 2,000,000 D&D players widewide and 1 in 5 as DMs gives us 400,000 DMs. How many of those DMs/group spenders are getting minis? 1% (4,000)?, 5% (20,000)?, 10% (40,000)?, 25% (100,000)?. How many of those might be willing to dive into mini collecting?
Does every gaming group need a collection of 1000 minis? (rough guess of gaming groups at 400,000). 1000 minis per group is only 400,000,000 pieces of prepainted plastic.
So lets say Wizkids dumped 150 million into the market and DDM put only 75 million (only 5 million per 15 sets) that's 225 million divided between 400,000 groups. That's halfway to 1,000 minis per group. If the number is closer to 200 million for WotC that's the 800 per group mark.
So how much plastic can the total of D&D groups willing to use minis absorb before they feel saturated (see many posters here). For mini lovers the number seems to be in the 3000-6000 range. For more frugal mini lovers 1000-3000. For budget minded just what I need types and proxy away maybe only 500-1000. Obviously no minis/no grid groups need significantly less (they probably still end up with 10-500 pieces of plastic by accident).
I think in a perfect world from WotC's perspective there would be a mini collector in every group (I think it's only like 1 in 10 at best). Let's say there are 1 million groups that all want an average collection of 1000 minis. That's only 1 billion pieces of prepainted fantasy plastic. And even only that optimistic total need we're probably already 33% of the way there. The reality is that the current groups that want and eagerly devour mini releases are already at 100% of the 1,000 minis target and fast approaching or past their threshold of 3,000 or 6,000 minis.
This is without the influx of PPM from a WoW CMG or even the Legendary Encounters line from Reaper. Or even existing metal from 30 years of fantasy minis. | |
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 03/28/2008 11:02 AM |
| http://www.reapermini.com/CompanyInfo
Probably slightly more than 10,000,000 Dark heaven line blister packs have been sold by Reaper. So anywhere between 1 and 10 DDM sets worth of minis. Probably around 1 or 2.
Reaper currently has 1297 SKUs for Dark Heaven. So roughly 10,000 of each blister have been sold. Or on average probably less than the typical DDM rare produced in each set. | |
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Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 03/28/2008 12:03 PM |
| Keep in mind, though, that the customer base churns as well. we've seen players come and go on ths site. And we're a small microcosm of actual purchasers.
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Thenameless
Warlord
12541 Posts
The Fortress of Solitude
| | 03/28/2008 12:13 PM |
| | And then there are those who have the equivalent of four or five normal collections. | |
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Cthulhufnord
Warlord
11114 Posts
Umass Amherst Baby!
| | 03/28/2008 12:23 PM |
| I've been going through my old clicks collection, it's scary.
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digital13jw
Skirmisher
33 Posts
| | 03/28/2008 1:01 PM |
| | your not looking at over seas or the horder that will buy them hold on to them and sell them when there out of print, | | | |
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Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 03/28/2008 2:12 PM |
| yeah, and just about every D&D player has picked up a pack or two...
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Corim Danex
Warlord
6844 Posts
West Valley City, Utah
| | 03/28/2008 2:39 PM |
| These numbers are so huge that without the actual records of the different companies (and WotC is not about to share that information with the general public) there really isn't a way to verify the numbers.
I feel that they come a lot closer to saturating the market by redoing figures so often than by making new ones. I grow weary of so many reprints when there are so many unmade creatures.
I don't really think that the cross-brand saturation is highly important because there are many people who don't even consider MK stuff when looking for D&D figures. I don't have a single MK mini, though I do have 3600+ DDM. | |
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 03/28/2008 10:59 PM |
| Trying to get a handle of what 150,000 cases of DDM would look like.
A standard shipping container is listed as 8'x8'6"x40'.
If a DDM case is 9"x9"x12" (I never keep my boxes - it's probably a bit bigger), then 40 cases deep, 10 cases wide, and 10 cases tall fit might fit in a container (plus room for the pallets). 4000 cases.
So a 10,000 case shipment of DDM takes 2 full containers and half of a third, for roughly 1,000,000 minis.
384,000 minis per container. Of course they probably aren't packed quite that tight.
A 150,000 case set would fill probably 40 containers which stacked 2 high is 17' high. 40' deep and 80' long. Of course those containers get sent where ever DDM is sold, so some go to Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, France, Italy, Germany, England, Brazil, etc.
Still 150,000 cases seems like a lot. | |
Called Shot: Against the Giants -- Aboleth
Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
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Thenameless
Warlord
12541 Posts
The Fortress of Solitude
| | 03/29/2008 1:15 AM |
| | Nice analysis, JodyJ. A lot of D&D players out there, and a lot of them have been playing without minis for many years - me included. Now, it's time to catch up. | |
Over 270 successful online DDM trades. | |
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 03/30/2008 8:33 PM |
| Posted By Teflon Jeff on 03/28/2008 12:03 PM
Keep in mind, though, that the customer base churns as well. we've seen players come and go on ths site. And we're a small microcosm of actual purchasers.
Add a group, lose a group. The minis don't go away. Either they get sold or stored, but I don't see people just trashing them.
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Called Shot: Against the Giants -- Aboleth
Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
Another Champion of the Aboleth | |
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 03/30/2008 8:43 PM |
| Posted By Thenameless on 03/28/2008 12:13 PM
And then there are those who have the equivalent of four or five normal collections.
Do you mean there are mini lovers ++ that have 12,000 to 30,000 as an active fantasy RPG collection?
From what I've observed once folks get up above 6,000 minis they tend to try and sell off as many as they bring in.
There's probably quite a few duplicates that were good to have when they were the only sculpt of that creature that will be back out on the secondary because there are new sculpts (or new sculpts that go into the secondary because some like the old sculpts better). | |
Called Shot: Against the Giants -- Aboleth
Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
Another Champion of the Aboleth | |
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 03/30/2008 8:49 PM |
| Posted By digital13jw on 03/28/2008 1:01 PM
your not looking at over seas or the horder that will buy them hold on to them and sell them when there out of print,
I think the numbers of D&D players is a world-wide number. I've seem the estimate of players at 2-6 million in 2000. So 1/2 to a quarter of WoWs active subscriptions.
Regarding hoarders, I would imagine that the percentage of cases in storage for speculative sales has decreased with each set. And in the end they will end up in circulation. | |
Called Shot: Against the Giants -- Aboleth
Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 03/30/2008 10:17 PM |
| Posted By Corim Danex on 03/28/2008 2:39 PM
These numbers are so huge that without the actual records of the different companies (and WotC is not about to share that information with the general public) there really isn't a way to verify the numbers.
http://www.wizkidsgames.com/wk_article.asp?cid=36689&frame=company
"Mage Knight took the game industry by storm, with more than 40 million figures sold in the first 14 months."
http://www.reapermini.com/CompanyInfo
"1996 we launched our Dark Heaven Legends 25mm fantasy miniature line that is today the top selling fantasy RPG miniature line in the world with over 10,000,000 blister packs sold. "
http://www.enworld.org/showpost.php?p=4136286&postcount=5
Recent circulation for Dungeon flunctuated between 23,000 and 48,000. Dragon Magazine has had circulation between 31,000 and 68,000 this decade.
I think it would be somewhat reasonable to think that DDM (and probably MK 2.0) put a bullet in the head of MK and thus might reasonably have sold 40,000,000 minis in the first 14 months also (that's HAR, DE, AR, GoL, and AB) = average of 8,000,000 per set. At the current 960,000 figure per 10,000 cases that's the equivalent of 80,000 cases per set.
The Dungeon/Dragon numbers are even more speculative but I think can give us a rough ballpark for the number of D&D groups active in the current edition (since the crunch transitioned to each new edition) and who also were invested in the game enough to buy product beyond the Core rulebooks. The guess work is mostly whether any given group is more likely to buy minis than to buy Dragon/Dungeon.
Since DDM is less edition dependent (many 1e, 2e, BECMI, 3.0, and non-D&D RPGers likely buy DDM) I would venture that more groups buy DDM than bought the magazines consistently. Which based on the magazine numbers puts lifestyle/invested groups at probably 60,000 to 100,000 which is also an approximation of our range for cases per set.
The 2-6 million gamers number puts the number of groups at 400,000 to 1,200,000 (assuming the average group size of 5 from WotC research is accurate). So anywhere between 5% (60k of 1.2 million) and 25% (100k of 400k) of groups might game with minis and buy an average of 1 case of DDM per set.
The obvious growth market under those numbers would be to get a higher percentage of groups to use minis rather than to get current mini using groups to buy more per set (and after 14 sets that is an uphill battle just to maintain due to saturation).
Edit to add new numbers:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23903817/
Scott Rouse quote gives 6 million players as slightly inflated. Also notes that a large number of those are essentially "non-paying" customers, or by my parlance not lifestyle gamers and not likely to assemble a mini collection. | |
Called Shot: Against the Giants -- Aboleth
Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
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Thenameless
Warlord
12541 Posts
The Fortress of Solitude
| | 03/30/2008 11:04 PM |
| Posted By JodyJ on 03/30/2008 8:43 PM Posted By Thenameless on 03/28/2008 12:13 PM
And then there are those who have the equivalent of four or five normal collections. Do you mean there are mini lovers ++ that have 12,000 to 30,000 as an active fantasy RPG collection? From what I've observed once folks get up above 6,000 minis they tend to try and sell off as many as they bring in. There's probably quite a few duplicates that were good to have when they were the only sculpt of that creature that will be back out on the secondary because there are new sculpts (or new sculpts that go into the secondary because some like the old sculpts better).
I think there is some truth to this observation. For many, storage eventually becomes an issue, so a collection of 6,000-10,000 will often times stabilize at that number with things coming and going. | |
Over 270 successful online DDM trades. | |
|
JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 03/30/2008 11:04 PM |
| Posted By Corim Danex on 03/28/2008 2:39 PM
I feel that they come a lot closer to saturating the market by redoing figures so often than by making new ones. I grow weary of so many reprints when there are so many unmade creatures.
I don't really think that the cross-brand saturation is highly important because there are many people who don't even consider MK stuff when looking for D&D figures. I don't have a single MK mini, though I do have 3600+ DDM.
Let's pretend the guess on 80,000 case sets is close and the approximation of 60,000 to 100,000 groups buying DDM is as well.
That means 40,000 DK beholders exist. So anywhere between 67% and 40% of currently collecting groups even have a shot at one. And even more likely only 30,000 groups have one because of duplicates.
After the Undead beholder almost every group had a shot at one down to only 80%. And with the Eye of Flame probably every invested group has a shot at having at least 1 Beholder. But that all assumes the percentage of groups using minis isn't growing and continuing to grow. The potential market for minis might be 4 to 12 times the current number.
That's the optimistic side.
Some Polls on ENWorld:
http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=83694
April 2004 Poll (Archfiends) 83% use minis, 24% solely use DDM
http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=67677
Oct 2003 Poll (Just after Har and probably spurred by announcement that DDM sold 1,000,000 figures - roughly 7800 Harbinger cases in a month)
67% use minis, 11% no minis, no battlemat
http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=56420
July 2003 Poll (Before DDM) 74% use minis, 0% solely use DDM
http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=39500
Feb. 2003 Poll (When DDM announced) 70% use minis, 15% say never.
The sample sizes are really small but the self-selecting group was in the majority already using minis in 2003 when DDM hit the market. And about 10-15% of self-selected respondents will apparently die before they use minis.
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Called Shot: Against the Giants -- Aboleth
Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
Another Champion of the Aboleth | |
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Thenameless
Warlord
12541 Posts
The Fortress of Solitude
| | 03/31/2008 2:34 AM |
| | Playing the RPG without miniatures is fun in its own right. It's a very esoteric game that way, but it can become cumbersome for the group as a whole in a complex combat with lots of good/bad guys and "hard-to-explain" terrain. | |
Over 270 successful online DDM trades. | |
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Dagaron
Sneak
146 Posts
Indiana, USA
| | 03/31/2008 4:19 AM |
| One problem is you're really only looking at one portion of the market, D&D RPG players.
You're missing the people who only play Skirmish. While a smaller percentage, I know a good number of people who buy to play the skirmish game. Then among those are the ones that only show up for a pre-release each year. Skirmish players are never going to have a "saturated market" (especially with Standard format).
Then you're missing the children that make his parents buy the miniatures and never plays D&D or skirmish..
You have a lot of useful info, but miniatures will evolve with time and the big games aren't going to die off. MtG is still going strong, and Wizards support on DDM is growing. It's my guess that with the new D&D drive Wizards is going to attempt to get DDM to a tournament level that resembles MtG within the next 5-10 years. | |
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Gryfalia
Sneak
107 Posts
| | 03/31/2008 7:14 AM |
| Unhallowed is no longer in stock at WotC, last week was the final for ordering.
I am 100% sure that WotC wants as many sets as is reasonably possible in the available pipeline, they just don't want to be the ones holding on to the stock. Because if their options are 'New DM Andy needs a Beholder model, he can buy boosters at the local store to get one' and 'New DM Andy needs a Beholder model, he has to get them from the secondary market' their favored option would be A, because that keeps the stores going and wanting more product (and more willing to stock up on sealed product). Being that most minis are purchased for the RPG model, it doesn't fit the overall CCG model of Magic and the like.
Now, if Skirmishing kepts gaining in popularity, and that overtakes RPG as the number 1 reason people buy, it might just change.
But as long as DMs have hordes of 40 skeletons attacking a party, they will want different models to make it look cooler..;-) | |
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bshugg
Underboss
1833 Posts
| | 03/31/2008 9:24 AM |
| You guys all see this as a gauge on the market for trend analysis. I see it as a roadmap for how many figs I got to buy to own 10% of the market.  . I actually had to do some math to see how close to 1% I was.. | |
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Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 03/31/2008 10:06 AM |
| Does anyone still have contact with Zenako? How has his collection grown? I know it was a while ago that he surpassed 10K.
| |
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Pedro
Commander
3926 Posts
Czech Republic
| | 03/31/2008 1:58 PM |
| | Thank you for the interesting analysis, JodyJ. | |
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mazra
Sergeant
442 Posts
Canton, GA
| | 03/31/2008 3:28 PM |
| Hi JodyJ,
Great analysis! Thanks. What you say just falls right in line with what I have been saying and fearing. The PPM saturation will eventually affect WotC and future sets. That is why WotC must be very smart in selecting their sets. To lose an opportunity to have a highly sought-after rare is a mistake. The more desirable the miniatures in a set to the overall community, the more likely that set will sell out. And ultimately this is what WotC and their retailers want. IMHO you need about 15 very desirable RPG minis and another 5 or so desirable skirmish minis in any given set for a set to be successful.
WotC has to recognize this saturation effect. I believe this effect has driven 4.0/2.0. There is a hope that enough new people will enter the hobby to offset those collectors saturated with minis. Time will tell if this strategy will work.
Thanks again for the information! I now know why I was able to buy a bunch of Harbinger Starters back at the end of 2004.
Later,
Mazra | | | |
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 03/31/2008 8:26 PM |
| Posted By Dagaron on 03/31/2008 4:19 AM One problem is you're really only looking at one portion of the market, D&D RPG players.
You're missing the people who only play Skirmish. While a smaller percentage, I know a good number of people who buy to play the skirmish game. Then among those are the ones that only show up for a pre-release each year. Skirmish players are never going to have a "saturated market" (especially with Standard format).
Then you're missing the children that make his parents buy the miniatures and never plays D&D or skirmish.. You have a lot of useful info, but miniatures will evolve with time and the big games aren't going to die off. MtG is still going strong, and Wizards support on DDM is growing. It's my guess that with the new D&D drive Wizards is going to attempt to get DDM to a tournament level that resembles MtG within the next 5-10 years.
I think it's interesting that in the nearly 35 years D&D has been we're finally reaching a point where we could see every group that wants to game with painted minis might actually have 1000+ minis in their collection.
While it might be possible that there might have been 100 million metal minis produced I think from anecdotal and personal evidence it would be rather doubtful that they would all have been painted. Given the Reaper DHL number of 10,000,000 (over 11 years) it might be surmised that between Ral Partha/Grenadier during 1e and the Ral Partha 2e line there may have been maybe another 40,000,000 figures sold (just a wild guess). -- which in itself is pretty impressive that on average a long time mini using group might have 25-100 Reaper figs and maybe another 100-400 old school Ral Partha and Grenadier.
I just have a feeling that at some point fantasy minis are going to be so available that it will be like Super Heroes now where you could start a game and go down to the store and assemble a sizeable library of heros and villains from the Heroclix bin and really be set for the most part.
However I will add that the variety in D&D is a huge strength for the longevity of the line and although DuD as the Harbinger of 2.0 was very reprint heavy I think in the long run we'll always have something to want and look forward to because of the volume of creatures imaginable. When we can have 3000-6000 little plastic dudes between just under 1,000 sculpts and still be begging for a reptilian chicken or a happy dog. | |
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Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 03/31/2008 8:29 PM |
| Posted By Gryfalia on 03/31/2008 7:14 AM
Unhallowed is no longer in stock at WotC, last week was the final for ordering.
I am 100% sure that WotC wants as many sets as is reasonably possible in the available pipeline, they just don't want to be the ones holding on to the stock. Because if their options are 'New DM Andy needs a Beholder model, he can buy boosters at the local store to get one' and 'New DM Andy needs a Beholder model, he has to get them from the secondary market' their favored option would be A, because that keeps the stores going and wanting more product (and more willing to stock up on sealed product). Being that most minis are purchased for the RPG model, it doesn't fit the overall CCG model of Magic and the like.
Now, if Skirmishing kepts gaining in popularity, and that overtakes RPG as the number 1 reason people buy, it might just change.
But as long as DMs have hordes of 40 skeletons attacking a party, they will want different models to make it look cooler..;-) Good to hear they managed the print run of Unhallowed well enough to clear the warehouse in a just over a year.
That strengthens my hope that WotC is well aware of the trendlines and I'm sure has a better grasp on the saturation level than I do.
| |
Called Shot: Against the Giants -- Aboleth
Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
Another Champion of the Aboleth | |
|
Trokair
Skirmisher
20 Posts
Atlanta, GA
| | 03/31/2008 10:14 PM |
| | The future of 4th edition and skirmish is online. Set rotation of legal pieces will keep the Skirmish market moving.. provided WotC does enough to bring people to the table. If saturation were a killing blow then Magic would have been dead ten years ago. Marketing will broaden the market and online gaming will be the saving grace/income for the Skirmish crew. | |
-=Trokair=- | |
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mazra
Sergeant
442 Posts
Canton, GA
| | 04/01/2008 5:04 AM |
| Hi Trokair, You can not compare MTG to DDMs. First, cards are far easier to store in great quantities. Two, it is much easier for a far younger audience to get involved with MTG and begin playing, and at a far lower initial investment. Three, D&D RPG usually requires knowing a DM. No such restrictions with MTG. Four, there are limits to where you can buy DDMS. MTG can be found at the local Target stores or Walmart, not so for DDMs. Finally, it is difficult to carry the skirmish game in your pocket, and not so with a deck of MTG.
You really can not compare MTG to DDMs. The real comparison is MK, and look at where that PPM is now.
Later,
Mazra
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 04/01/2008 7:16 PM |
| I'm curious whether we could make a comparision between DDM and the current longest running PPM game - Heroclix.
Seems like WizKids are dealing with the saturation by releasing a lot of mini-packs and small run sets.
The most recent set must have been produced in much smaller numbers in order to sell out the first day of release. (Would this be a good thing for DDM?)
DC 2008 Releases:
http://www.wizkidsgames.com/heroclix/dc/gameresources.asp?cid=41720
"2008 is already off to a great start with DC HeroClix: Crisis! The product has sold out from the WizKids warehouse and the World’s Finest “buy it by the brick” exclusive, numbered piece is causing retailers to hold midnight openings on February 27th complete with overnight mailing envelopes to ensure their customers won’t get left out. "
Marvel 2008 Release:
http://www.wizkidsgames.com/heroclix/marvel/gameresources.asp?cid=41721
The most applicable version of this for DDM would be more Scenario kits like the Driz'zt box and basically just producing a lot less of each set. This would allow the line and especially the skirmish game to continue indefinately. The question being do the box sets move. Heroclix has a huge collector/fan appeal and I'm not sure D&D can generate those sales as well, since D&D is less about reading/seeing hero's and more about pretending to be hero's. | |
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vanrulzz
Commander
2778 Posts
¯\(°_o)/¯
| | 04/03/2008 8:39 AM |
| | hmmm nice analysis | | | |
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Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 04/03/2008 10:05 AM |
| Posted By JodyJ on 04/01/2008 7:16 PM I'm curious whether we could make a comparision between DDM and the current longest running PPM game - Heroclix.
Seems like WizKids are dealing with the saturation by releasing a lot of mini-packs and small run sets.
The most recent set must have been produced in much smaller numbers in order to sell out the first day of release. (Would this be a good thing for DDM?)
DC 2008 Releases:
http://www.wizkidsgames.com/heroclix/dc/gameresources.asp?cid=41720
"2008 is already off to a great start with DC HeroClix: Crisis! The product has sold out from the WizKids warehouse and the World’s Finest “buy it by the brick” exclusive, numbered piece is causing retailers to hold midnight openings on February 27th complete with overnight mailing envelopes to ensure their customers won’t get left out. "
Marvel 2008 Release:
http://www.wizkidsgames.com/heroclix/marvel/gameresources.asp?cid=41721
The most applicable version of this for DDM would be more Scenario kits like the Driz'zt box and basically just producing a lot less of each set. This would allow the line and especially the skirmish game to continue indefinately. The question being do the box sets move. Heroclix has a huge collector/fan appeal and I'm not sure D&D can generate those sales as well, since D&D is less about reading/seeing hero's and more about pretending to be hero's.
You'll notice that heroClix has changed their rarity scheme to match the DDM structure. This is because before, they had serious problems with people buying large amounts of boosters, and no rares, while someone else could buy two boosters, and get the two best pieces. No guaranteed rares was very frustrating.
However, I think the comparison has some merit, as both have collecters (a large amount, possibly even a majority) who don't play the game, but are merely collecers. Also, not that heroClix saturation is far more advanced, as they already have multiple reprints of popular characters (there's at least a dozen supermen figs, easily) This is more applicable to Star Wars.
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Pedro
Commander
3926 Posts
Czech Republic
| | 04/03/2008 12:31 PM |
| Posted By vanrulzz on 04/03/2008 8:39 AM
hmmm nice analysis
Have you even read it? | |
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Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 04/03/2008 2:54 PM |
| Posted By Pedro on 04/03/2008 12:31 PM Posted By vanrulzz on 04/03/2008 8:39 AM
hmmm nice analysis Have you even read it? 
And the gauntlet is thrown down!!
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Thenameless
Warlord
12541 Posts
The Fortress of Solitude
| | 04/03/2008 3:13 PM |
| | For me, one solution would be to slow down the rate of new releases to say twice a year (every 6 months), instead of at the current pace of about thrice a year. First, they wouldn't run out of desirable creatures as quickly. Second, the longer release time allows people to better digest the current set. Third, the longer the build-up (through previews) the more excited we DDM fans would be about a new set. Fourth, R&D has more time to get the stats right for the skirmish game, and the same goes for the artistic crew with regard to paint and sculpt. Finally, just having to wait longer brings its own value to an upcoming set. | |
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mazra
Sergeant
442 Posts
Canton, GA
| | 04/03/2008 5:44 PM |
| Posted By Thenameless on 04/03/2008 3:13 PM
For me, one solution would be to slow down the rate of new releases to say twice a year (every 6 months),.
Hi Thenameless,
It is a good idea with one exception. WotC has been selling a lot of minis for nearly five years. They will not do anything to reduce their income potential by one-third. As long as they are selling boosters and cases, then WotC will keep making sets at the current rate. As soon as they have a dud set (pun intended) then the frequency may begin to slack off. And if WotC has a few dud sets, then you can say, "Sayonara."
Later,
Mazra | | | |
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 04/03/2008 8:36 PM |
| You don't drop the line as soon as sales are down.
You kill the line when the trend line of sales is headed towards no profitability within a set or two. The first step would be to just produce less per set until it would no longer by profitable to do so.
The earlier rumor about 'limited availability' on DuD may have been true. As a new starter set with many repeats they may have already projected that sales would be lower but it also a needed set since the previous starters (Harb, Aberrations, and War Drums) are all out of print. It's a set with figures that needed to be back in circulation but might have a lower demand like War Drums before it.
Sets in the warehouse:
Dungeon of Dread
Desert of Desolation
Night Below
Sets still available at the distribution level
Unhallowed - limited (already? is this high sales or lower numbers produced?)
Blood War - limited (possibly reprinted or a reprint in process - can anyone confirm?)
War of the Dragon Queen
War Drums -limited, starters also limited (ideally starters should have dried up probably a couple months ago with the lead up to 2.0)
Underdark - reprinted
Angelfire (was this that much of a dog on sales or was it overproduced?)
Deathknell - reprinted and limited
Sets not available at the distribution level
Aberrations
Giants of Legend
Archfiends
Dragoneye - reprinted
Harbinger - starters reprinted
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 04/03/2008 8:43 PM |
| Posted By Teflon Jeff on 04/03/2008 10:05 AM You'll notice that heroClix has changed their rarity scheme to match the DDM structure. This is because before, they had serious problems with people buying large amounts of boosters, and no rares, while someone else could buy two boosters, and get the two best pieces. No guaranteed rares was very frustrating.
However, I think the comparison has some merit, as both have collecters (a large amount, possibly even a majority) who don't play the game, but are merely collecers. Also, not that heroClix saturation is far more advanced, as they already have multiple reprints of popular characters (there's at least a dozen supermen figs, easily) This is more applicable to Star Wars
Looking at Star Wars at the distribution level I am stunned. According to Alliance they have every single Star Wars set produced still available. Is that true?
I know they did reprints of Rebel Storm but many of these are listed as still available at WotC.
Only the Hoth Pack and the AT-AT have limited availability and only Rebel Storm and Clone Strike are limited as OOP.
Where are these boosters? Must of the stores don't stock them more than 3-4 sets back.
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Called Shot: Against the Giants -- Aboleth
Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
Another Champion of the Aboleth | |
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JodyJ
Warrior
260 Posts
| | 04/03/2008 8:59 PM |
| Posted By Pedro on 04/03/2008 12:31 PM Posted By vanrulzz on 04/03/2008 8:39 AM
hmmm nice analysis Have you even read it?
It kind of rambles. Can you summarize it for me?
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Called Shot: Against the Giants -- Aboleth
Called Shot: Demonweb - Large Whip Spider
Another Champion of the Aboleth | |
| Master of the
Awesome Sauce
Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 04/04/2008 8:36 AM |
| I thin WotC has one nice advantage, in that by holding back, if one set does head south, they can release a really awesome set to help recover.
We all have our favorite sets, and the top of most players lists usually have both underdark and Blood war in the top 4. Both were solid sets all around. These kinds of sets are their bread and butter, rebounding after potentially bad sales.
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Official Delegate, Wizards of the Coast
Icons Called Shot: Gargantuan Prismatic Dragon
"Rejoice, for bad things are about to happen." | |
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mazra
Sergeant
442 Posts
Canton, GA
| | 04/04/2008 9:05 AM |
| Posted By JodyJ on 04/03/2008 8:36 PM You don't drop the line as soon as sales are down.
Hi JodyJ,
You are right! I would guess two sets in a row of little or no profit would begin the end.
What do you think?
Later,
Mazra
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mazra
Sergeant
442 Posts
Canton, GA
| | 04/04/2008 9:17 AM |
| Posted By Teflon Jeff on 04/04/2008 8:36 AM
I thin WotC has one nice advantage, in that by holding back, if one set does head south, they can release a really awesome set to help recover.
Hi Teflon,
The problem is that they are working on three to four sets in the future now. If interim sets are duds then Hasbro will have a problem.
WotC has the ideal PPM product. How many products can claim three different types of customers? Though many may buy DDMs for two or more reasons, you have RPGers, skirmish players and collectors. RPGers have been driving the market. These buyers are often older with greater disposable income. Skirmish players are typically younger with less income. Many of the RPGers are also collectors. These individuals will continue to buy DDMs as long as the collecting aspect remains strong, for many if not most have already filled their RPG needs. WotC must continue to make minis that are extremely atractive to collectors in order for the line to continue indefinitely. When WotC consistantly fails this, then the line will likely come to an end.
Later,
Mazra | | | |
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