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E.C. Organizer
galneweinhaw
Commander
2646 Posts
    
 | | 02/22/2006 3:14 AM |
| Way back when... I compiled some stats to see how fair the support troop system was. A few very privilidged people got a chance to see them before like a moron I accidently deleted them from my post [:(]
However, that was a long time ago back during V1, so while working on V3 I though I should try to and re-compile these stats. Way too many hours later I have them and they will help a ton in ensuring we can keep EC games as fair as possible.
I have compiled the results of all games that used support troops since the beginning of V2 (Weeks 31 to present). There have been 171 games with support troops.
For your disecting and analyzing pleasure =)
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SilentG
Sergeant
616 Posts
| | 02/22/2006 3:39 AM |
| This is a really neat project Galne! I like what you're doing with this, but 171 games isn't nearly enough data when you consider how much effects the outcome of a game. Simply getting lucky on your item rolls for one can insure that a lower level player has a huge edge besides his support troops. Tactical errors by either player which are often just random accidents can drastically alter games too.
That being said, assuming all else equal (which it's not), I think that at lower level games the lower level player is at a disadvantage and at higher point games the the lower level player is at an advantage, especially if he has his level + 1 quality items.
But to answer your thread: I think that the support troops win out about 56% of the time. | |
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scruffydude7
Underboss
1196 Posts
Rock Hill, SC
| | 02/22/2006 4:46 AM |
| Hmmmm, it's hard to say.
From personal experience, I would say that players with support troops have a slight edge in most situations.
BUT, support troops become more effective in higher point games. Because there are less high point games played each week than low point games, I'd say that players with support troops actually lose more often.
Final Answer:
With support troops: win 40% Without support troops: win 60%
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eMpTy Kay
Underboss
1068 Posts
| | 02/22/2006 8:02 AM |
| I would agree with SilentG that support troops at lower levels has a bigger effect than at higher levels (75 vs 82 compare to 200 vs 220) as well as other issues being a factor, but like he said, if everything else is assumed equal.
Many people have said they don't see the point of Support Troops (what good is 12 pts?) and I think that is mostly an issue of needing to learn to think out side the box, but that is just personal opinion.
Getting back to the issue, I think in 125 & less point games, I think the Support Troop player wins 70%. While in 150 & greater point games, the Support Troop player wins 45% of the time.
(Reasoning, at higher levels, the player without support troops has more powerful items that are worth more than the support troops) | |
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Richard II
Commander
3663 Posts
| | 02/22/2006 8:57 AM |
| | iirc last time it was pretty much an exact 50/50 split, so I'm gonna say the player with support troops wins 55% of the time. | |
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Zippy
Underboss
1984 Posts
Whitewater, WI
| | 02/22/2006 9:07 AM |
| Well let's see, activation control, even if only a couple of 3 to 5 pt crummies, is pretty important if used properly.
I disagree with SilentG that we have too small a sample size, since the entire population of games was sampled for V2. Within V2 rules changed little, although we have several key factors (scenario, items, and player skill) that also control outcomes. By lumping everything together, with 170+ data points, we should get a decent result.
Maybe looking for correlation by level of players would be interesting. The V1 data showed 49/51 split iirc. 8 fig limit shold make support more important. Item Reroll counters that.
GUESS:
Lower Level = 51%, Higher Level = 49% | |
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jjbeezer
Sergeant
633 Posts
| | 02/22/2006 9:24 AM |
| Support troops are fickle. They never help enough or they are a deciding factor.
40% Lose with support troops | |
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| The Defenestrator
AesophDarkfable
Warlord
5628 Posts
| | 02/22/2006 10:43 AM |
| | it will end up 50/50 again. | |
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galneweinhaw
Commander
2646 Posts
| | 02/23/2006 4:29 AM |
| It's uncanny I say.
Kinda neat to see the "Curse of 12pts of Support" heh. | |
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eMpTy Kay
Underboss
1068 Posts
| | 02/23/2006 9:11 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by galneweinhaw
It's uncanny I say.
Kinda neat to see the "Curse of 12pts of Support" heh.
Now we know why so many people complain about the "12 pts not beeing helpful". Reason, either 3-4 fodder does not make a difference in 125 pt games, OR no good unit costed at 10-12 pts. | |
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Wish
Sergeant
399 Posts
| | 02/23/2006 11:48 AM |
| In something like EC, the usefulness of support is also directly tied to the scenario.
In Eternal Battle, it's an infinite supply of 0 VP things you can throw at your opponent. That's terrific! In Vampiric catacombs it's nothing but a free boon for your opponent's big hitters. That's awful. | | | |
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SilentG
Sergeant
616 Posts
| | 02/23/2006 1:17 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Wish
In something like EC, the usefulness of support is also directly tied to the scenario.
In Eternal Battle, it's an infinite supply of 0 VP things you can throw at your opponent. That's terrific! In Vampiric catacombs it's nothing but a free boon for your opponent's big hitters. That's awful.
Good points Wish. Agreed!
But even on the vamp scenario support is good if you use it right. Not that I did this last time around, but next time round if I have support it'll be an advantage instead of a liability.
Looking over your stats Galnew, I can't see a clear correlation, granted I'm no stat analyst, but at different levels and different amounts of support there seems to be substantially different win percentages. I'm a bit surprised at that, but I think it goes to show that there's not enough data from each small grouping to get a good picture of what's going on. Especially considering how many other variables (player skill, scenario, items, rolls, etc) are being ignored.
I still like this project Galnew, but I'm dubious if it means much. Perhaps it's all in my head, but at level 8 I LOVE getting support troops.
Example: 60 pts of support and almost guaranteed activation conrol by a lot vs Aravis seems way better than giving Orthuk +20 HP +2 att +1 CR +1 FEAT and two more items in the battle (assuming pretty average items). | |
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| E.C. Organizer
galneweinhaw
Commander
2646 Posts
| | 02/23/2006 2:15 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by SilentG
Looking over your stats Galnew, I can't see a clear correlation
EXACTLY! isn't it beautiful! that's exactly what we want... NO CORRELATION! R=0! yay![:D]
quote:
granted I'm no stat analyst, but at different levels and different amounts of support there seems to be substantially different win percentages. I'm a bit surprised at that, but I think it goes to show that there's not enough data from each small grouping to get a good picture of what's going on.
The groupings at each individual support troop level is statistically useless, not till we get 50 games or something in each of them, but that's not the point of this exercise =). As we add more data we will be able to break it up into smaller groups. To see if their are any differences on a finer scale. So far we can only safely break it down into "upper half" and "lower half" I'd say, whihc is what I've done. I've provided the complete data just for everyones interest =)
quote:
I still like this project Galnew, but I'm dubious if it means much
It means that on average, our support troop system levels the playing field versus higher level warlords, which is exactly what it is meant to do. [:D] | |
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eMpTy Kay
Underboss
1068 Posts
| | 02/23/2006 9:42 PM |
| The only change I would suggest to the current system is to keep the fractions and round up when calculations are done. So in a 125 pt game where the difference is one level, the support troops would be 13pts. In the 125 pt game with two level difference would give support troops of 25pts. And the three level difference in the 125 pt game would be support troops of 38pts.
And for those people who think that one point would not make a difference, I will point out that Aramil is 13 points, and the Ogre Ravager is 38 pts. [:D] | |
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Zippy
Underboss
1984 Posts
Whitewater, WI
| | 02/23/2006 10:18 PM |
| I agree with eMpTy Kay, at least to the extent the fraction should be saved and the multiplied result rounded, rather than rounding first then multiplying.
Thus a 125 pt game with 20% support = 12.5 x 2 = 25pt, not 12.5 rounded to 12 then x 2 = 24 pt. Rounding the final 0.5 up or down makes no difference to me, as I consider that a purely arbitrary decision. | |
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Reference Thread, H/W List, Champion of the Catoblepas | |
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