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Subject: DiceBot Hates Me...

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lalato
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Urbana, IL

06/06/2006 12:35 PM  
I had a game last night where the majority of my +17 primary attacks missed an AC24. Why does dicebot hate me? Why? [)]

--sam

I'm in Urbana, IL

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tullywi
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06/06/2006 8:00 PM  
Did you use the t10d20 feature? That makes it roll 10 times silently - only you see it. Then, roll a normal roll so your opponent can see. It seems to help me a little bit. Sort of like chucking a die through a wall or something. [:)]


lalato
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Urbana, IL

06/06/2006 9:35 PM  
nope... I didn't know there was such a feature. so you type "t10d20" in the dice roller box and that shows 10 silent rolls the other player can't see?

--sam

I'm in Urbana, IL

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tullywi
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06/06/2006 10:15 PM  
Yep! The official definition is tXXdYY where "t" is for "test", XX is the number of rolls you don't want you opponent to see, "d" is "die/dice", and YY is the type of roll. So, if you want to roll 5 six-sided dice, you would do "t5d6".

Whatever the results are - only you can see them. So, don't try to tell your opponent you got a 20 or anything like that! Only results sent to both players are valid.

cya around!


robbdaman
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06/06/2006 10:21 PM  
The dice bot hates everyone now and then. Trust me I've had some absolutely horrid games on there with tons of crit failures where every mini I had routed. It's sad stuff but you just have to realize that the dice bot is far from perfect.

R~

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Toxic_Rat
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Lehi, Utah, USA

06/14/2006 10:50 AM  
Has anyone checked to see that the dicebot is correct, at least statistically? Even distribution and all that would be nice to know, even though the dice gods can be fickle in who they support at any given moment.

Any time you try to make something idiot-proof, someone always goes out and invents a better idiot.
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jai
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06/16/2006 10:30 AM  
I ran some large scale tests of it when i rewrote it that tracked a couple thousand rolls. It is as good as it is going to get on our budget [)]

Venport
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06/16/2006 11:04 AM  
yeah $0 is such a huge budget to work with... and for the record the dice bot dose not hate you it hates everyone :-)

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Zippy
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Whitewater, WI

06/16/2006 7:30 PM  
It's really a love/hate relationship, just like real world dice.

There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those who don't.
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HailSpork
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06/16/2006 7:57 PM  
Is there any chance of getting perhaps an alternate test mode that gives you the amount of certain numbers rolled? For example, if I did a test on 5d20 and got an 11, two 8's, a 1 and a 3, it'd go
1: 1
3: 1
8: 2
11: 1

That way we could actually see what kind of distribution we're getting.

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jai
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06/19/2006 8:07 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by HailSpork

Is there any chance of getting perhaps an alternate test mode that gives you the amount of certain numbers rolled? For example, if I did a test on 5d20 and got an 11, two 8's, a 1 and a 3, it'd go
1: 1
3: 1
8: 2
11: 1

That way we could actually see what kind of distribution we're getting.


Not an entirely bad idea ... i will sit and "contemplate my navel" on this one

HailSpork
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06/20/2006 4:00 PM  
It may handy if it used a different input from the current test; perhaps a different letter or such, just in case some people prefer the original.

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Foxman
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Calgary, AB, Canada

06/20/2006 4:35 PM  
I logged onto vassal for the first time today.
I thought I would try out the dice bot.

First Roll:
*** 1d20 = 1 ***

Sigh - This doesnt look so good...

It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy"

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tullywi
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06/20/2006 6:09 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Foxman

I logged onto vassal for the first time today.
I thought I would try out the dice bot.

First Roll:
*** 1d20 = 1 ***

Sigh - This doesnt look so good...


Actually that is GREAT as it had no outcome in a real game. It would be worse to have rolled and wasted a 20.

My first ball when bowling is almost always a strike. When I was younger, that first ball was always a practice ball and didn't count. Now that I'm older, I know not to throw any practice balls so that it counts.


HailSpork
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06/20/2006 6:37 PM  
Um... previous rolls have no impact on future rolls in a random environment. In a pseudo-random environment, the impact should be negligible, particularly on a PRNG as advanced as the mersienne twister (and on a limit of 1-20, thanks to the modulus allowing several redundancies on the actual randomly generated number)

Anyway, remember that 5% of everybody will get that result the first time they use it.

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Toxic_Rat
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Lehi, Utah, USA

06/24/2006 9:00 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by HailSpork

Um... previous rolls have no impact on future rolls in a random environment.



No one really believes this do they? [)]

Yeah its just a die (or dicebot) but when that 20 comes up in a test roll it always does feel like a waste.

Any time you try to make something idiot-proof, someone always goes out and invents a better idiot.
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madda
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06/24/2006 9:21 PM  
Jai, there's no need to write new java code. I tested the dicebot using t10d20, t1000d20 and then t10000d20. Copy and paste into a text file, and using this "grep ^d20 dicebot.txt |awk '{ print $3 }'|sort -n|uniq -c" short unix command. I got:
<br> 554 1<br> 545 2<br> 554 3<br> 603 4<br> 504 5<br> 557 6<br> 531 7<br> 573 8<br> 504 9<br> 575 10<br> 584 11<br> 577 12<br> 551 13<br> 543 14<br> 551 15<br> 541 16<br> 527 17<br> 560 18<br> 573 19<br> 503 20<br>

As you can all see it's pretty darn good. (First number is the number of occurrences, second is the dice result).

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HailSpork
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06/24/2006 9:38 PM  
Call me supersticious, but I'd like to try running it on my own comp to see if my luck is the same.

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madda
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06/24/2006 10:33 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by HailSpork

Call me supersticious, but I'd like to try running it on my own comp to see if my luck is the same.


Then go ahead and do it. I know I did.
If you lack the unix tools you can try and find similar Windows utilities or install unix tools via cygwin.

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zephyrstorm
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06/24/2006 11:18 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by madda
Then go ahead and do it. I know I did.
<br> 480 1<br> 502 2<br> 487 3<br> 492 4<br> 511 5<br> 528 6<br> 477 7<br> 499 8<br> 502 9<br> 459 10<br> 516 11<br> 541 12<br> 489 13<br> 515 14<br> 535 15<br> 489 16<br> 532 17<br> 496 18<br> 503 19<br> 447 20
My results came out similar. Slightly lower averages though, since I only ran the last die roll test (t10000d20).

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Toxic_Rat
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Lehi, Utah, USA

06/25/2006 10:44 AM  
Okay, while we're running numbers here :)

From Zephyrstorm:
<br># rolls    Number    % of total<br>480    1    4.80%<br>502    2    5.02%<br>487    3    4.87%<br>492    4    4.92%<br>511    5    5.11%<br>528    6    5.28%<br>477    7    4.77%<br>499    8    4.99%<br>502    9    5.02%<br>459    10    4.59%<br>516    11    5.16%<br>541    12    5.41%<br>489    13    4.89%<br>515    14    5.15%<br>535    15    5.35%<br>489    16    4.89%<br>532    17    5.32%<br>496    18    4.96%<br>503    19    5.03%<br>447    20    4.47%<br>10000        100.00%<br>

Average: 5.00%
Std. Deviation: 0.237%
Median: 5.01%

And from Madda:
554 1 5.03%
545 2 4.95%
554 3 5.03%
603 4 5.48%
504 5 4.58%
557 6 5.06%
531 7 4.82%
573 8 5.20%
504 9 4.58%
575 10 5.22%
584 11 5.30%
577 12 5.24%
551 13 5.00%
543 14 4.93%
551 15 5.00%
541 16 4.91%
527 17 4.79%
560 18 5.09%
573 19 5.20%
503 20 4.57%
11010 100.00%

Average: 5.00%
Std. Deviation: 0.241%
Median: 5.02%

For the two rolls that we all care about, it is interesting to note that in both tests, it is more likely to roll a 1 than a 20. Also, rolling a 20 is the least likely result in both tests.

The dicebot really does hate us. The upside to this is that it hates everyone equally. [}:)]

Any time you try to make something idiot-proof, someone always goes out and invents a better idiot.
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