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Subject: 65 HP not as important as it used to be

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ChristopherGroves
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01/20/2006 1:57 PM  
Seriously. The game has scaled away from the uber-barbarians. You no longer have to contend with quite as many guys throwing around 30 damage a swing. Lower damage, more consistently with a better survival rate seems to be the general trend.

I don't think that we're going to see the Pally of Torm making any sort of serious bid just quite yet, but some of the magical hard-and-fast breakpoints are no longer as ... well ... hard and fast. 35 HP is still a magical number given the amount of 15-per swings running around (and Wizard Tacticians), 45 is somewhat important but 55/60 seems to be the new optimized point.

Of course there are still plenty of creatures that do better than that (95 on the Helmed Horror, all the original CE beaters, etc.) ... but 65 isn't quite the mandatory it once was. Anyone else see this trend developing?

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01/20/2006 2:07 PM  
I'm not sure I agree. Maybe. We are seeing a lot more 15 damage per swing and in a pair of activations that's still a multiple of 30 so 65 is still desirable.

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01/20/2006 2:18 PM  
The problem with the idea of 65 hps no longer being the important breakpoint is that you are hosed if these barbarians (or an Aspect of Kord or a Marut) show up. Sure you can play the metagame and hope for plenty of LG and LE low-damage warbands, but high damage is always going to be valuable and is always going to be present. Building a warband around low hit-point pieces is flirting with disaster.

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01/20/2006 2:18 PM  
To some degree you're probably right, though I'm a big fan of the Aspect of Kord so he kind of says otherwise. If I win init you usually need 75 HP to survive. In general though it's true that most of the effective minis in the current meta produce 15 damage. They are just so aggressively costed and have solid defense, attack and HP themselves. This is how the Gith Monks can be so effective. They can take a shot or two without dying assuming you can hit them. Wardrums will continue to shake this fact up of course so it's only conjecture at the moment that this will be the way things are for the foreseeable future. I'm looking for the chaotic factions to get more AC heavy creatures and dish out some creative abilities. So far I'm not sure if we've seen that but the Wood Elf Ranger, Orc Mauler, Warforged Barbarian and Zakya Rakshasa look like they might offer the aggresive cost, AC, Attack and HP they need. No guarantee on their factions but I'm guessing chaotic.

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01/20/2006 2:29 PM  
Seems like there are more higher powered spells around now too, not just minis with good melee bonuses. Maybe that's just my mis-perception though.


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01/20/2006 2:29 PM  
The Zakya Rakshasa is going to be lawful evil. For the rest you are correct.

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01/20/2006 2:32 PM  
I agree that 65 hp isn't *as* important as it used to be, but it's still (very?) important. It went from a near-absolute requirement to a great thing to have.

Certainly, there are some < 65 hp creatures that are amazingly competitive despite their hp because they have so many other good things going for them. Examples include the Couatl (it's just so darn useful despite its hp), Gith Monks (AC 25 and Speed 10 both make up for the hp), Dark Naga (Conceal helps make up for the hp).

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01/20/2006 2:36 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Chad the DragonLordofAiur

I'm not sure I agree. Maybe. We are seeing a lot more 15 damage per swing and in a pair of activations that's still a multiple of 30 so 65 is still desirable.



I agree with Chad.

Looking at the current standard builds, we are looking at a lot of 15 dmg swings from the LE set. Chraals, HH, Duergar, Gauth.

Don't have much experience playing against CE in the current environs, so I can't vouch for that.

CG - Well, we've got Kord and we've got berserkers. I don't see much else than that played.

LG - This is where it really matters. Monks pop you for 30 unless you have a specific defense against them. That Alone is enough to make me think 65 hp is still mandatory.

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01/20/2006 2:38 PM  
I think it is probably more important than it was around Gencon season; justice archons are less prevalent now, so the population of FBs and orc champs with eyes boosting them should increase. Also, if gith monks become more popular, things that can force them to morale check in one hit should increase in value.

Not morale checking when a duergar champion hits you twice with that high attack bonus is also quite nice.

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01/20/2006 2:51 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by doubtofbuddha

The Zakya Rakshasa is going to be lawful evil. For the rest you are correct.



I figured it probably would be but we see changes to factions on some minis that still baffle me. Make a new Githyanki but call it a "Renegade" so it can be CG instead of CE. At least anything barbarian is always chaotic.

Add to Guy's list the Xen'drik Champion. I've yet to see this mini not be worth it's cost. It's funny since it was slammed heavily for being rare and lousy. Now months later it's a solid play piece. Rakshasa is generally playable due to DR and good speed. Perhaps even the Bladesinger. Gold Dwarf Soldier is easily point effective. MDP for sheer ability to attack and run. Xorn for it's AC, HP and abilities. And I'm personally still trying to get the Xeph Soulknife to work but it's low attack is what keeps it out.

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01/20/2006 3:32 PM  
I think it's still pretty important as a crit from a 15-dealer still does 30 too. Surviving two hits and a crit is pretty important, I think.

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01/20/2006 4:18 PM  
Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying it is NOT important ... the Pally of Torm is still safely packed away.

Not *as* important ... sure you still want to have that, but it isn't the backbreaker it once was. Couatl, CoDA, Dark Naga, Rakshasa, Gith Monk, Young Master ... none of these have 65 HP but are clearly reasonably useful.

When the game was ALL Orc Champs+Eye, Ravager and FB that would have been your death ... a single hit for a MC even with Conceal 6 ... or a single crit to kill would have been too risky. The move to more , smaller components in the power band (going from quads to base-5 bands), the less frequent showing for the Tiefling, etc. All these things lead to 65 HP not being NEARLY as important as it once was. I still wouldn't recommend heavy reliance on these lower-HP figures (and you wouldn't either) ... but they aren't the albatross they once were. Imagine if the JAs, Duergar Champs, Chraals and other good non-30/swing hitters didn't exist ... we'd still be looking at a field of chaotic beaters and thus 65 HP would still be key.

One thing of note ... except for the Gith Monk, the other pieces that "work" at 55 or 60 HP are all commanders ... not really front-line guys.


Just some food for thought.

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01/20/2006 4:24 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by ChristopherGroves



One thing of note ... except for the Gith Monk, the other pieces that "work" at 55 or 60 HP are all commanders ... not really front-line guys.



Yeah, that's basically my reaction to that argument. All of those pieces are pretty much screwed if you let them get based by a hitter at all, it's not the "survive the first strike so you can hit back" issue.

Gith monk is a solid point, though. Clearly playable, though perhaps because it's abilities, (Stunning Strike and speed 10, primarily) match up well against the things that could take advantage of it having few HP.

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01/20/2006 4:29 PM  
The Gith Monk works at 55hp solely because of the 25 AC not because of the speed 10 or stuns. If it weren't so hard to hit by two 15 damage attacks it would be making a morale save quite often and wouldn't be so playable.

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01/20/2006 4:34 PM  
I also think the Gith Monk benefits by being in the same faction with the Couatl along with the 25 AC. The very things that bypass the very high armor class are mitigated by the energy resistance the Couatl provides. This lets you stretch the hit points farther than you could in say chaotic evil, let's say.


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01/20/2006 4:56 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Chad the DragonLordofAiur

The Gith Monk works at 55hp solely because of the 25 AC not because of the speed 10 or stuns. If it weren't so hard to hit by two 15 damage attacks it would be making a morale save quite often and wouldn't be so playable.

I disagree. Speed 10 pretty much assures that the Gith Monk will be hitting first, and a successful stun means its target won't be hitting back that round. These two things are just as important as AC 25, imo.

As for the 65 HP benchmark, I agree that it is still important, due to the 15 damage swings that have already been mentioned. It's going to remain a solid number because 60 is a multiple of 10, 15, 20, and 30. However, having less than 65 HP is no longer a "one-swing and you're out" range.

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01/20/2006 5:03 PM  
I would say that 65 hit points is still a good mark.

Against ten damage critters, it's four hits to MC instead of three and seven hits to kill instead of six. Maybe not such a big deal there.

Against fifteen damage creatures, it's three hits to MC instead of two and five to kill instead of four. Since that's the difference between MCing and not MCing when two Duergar champs move to base a mini and being dead and being alive after being hit four times by a Duergar champ (not that unusual a situation--especially if you were just based by two of them), that's a big deal.

Against twenty damage creatures (like the grimlock barbarian, Red Sam (against non-fire resistance creatures), Rask, Ulmo, or Rikka), that's the same two hits to MC but four hits to kill instead of three.

Against 25 damage creatures (like an unboosted orc champion, maybe a skullclan hunter boosted by a half-orc paladin and using sneak attack or the slayer of domiel sneak attacking against an evil foe, or a gold dwarf charging from right next to Alusair), it makes no difference vis a vis 55 or 60 points.

Against 30 damage creatures, it's benefits are well known.

I think it's still very important unless the metagame shifts such that 10 and 25 damage creatures are more common than 15, 20, and 30 damage creatures.


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01/20/2006 5:58 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by ChristopherGroves

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying it is NOT important ... the Pally of Torm is still safely packed away.

Not *as* important ... sure you still want to have that, but it isn't the backbreaker it once was. Couatl, CoDA, Dark Naga, Rakshasa, Gith Monk, Young Master ... none of these have 65 HP but are clearly reasonably useful.

When the game was ALL Orc Champs+Eye, Ravager and FB that would have been your death ... a single hit for a MC even with Conceal 6 ... or a single crit to kill would have been too risky. The move to more , smaller components in the power band (going from quads to base-5 bands), the less frequent showing for the Tiefling, etc. All these things lead to 65 HP not being NEARLY as important as it once was. I still wouldn't recommend heavy reliance on these lower-HP figures (and you wouldn't either) ... but they aren't the albatross they once were. Imagine if the JAs, Duergar Champs, Chraals and other good non-30/swing hitters didn't exist ... we'd still be looking at a field of chaotic beaters and thus 65 HP would still be key.

One thing of note ... except for the Gith Monk, the other pieces that "work" at 55 or 60 HP are all commanders ... not really front-line guys.


Just some food for thought.



But wait a minute - 65 hp is the key threshold against several of the creatures you mention as being reasons 65 is less important. Chraals and duergars hit for 15, so 65 adds an extra hit before morale check and an extra hit before death. If you hit for 15 (or 30) the same goes for the justice archon.

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01/20/2006 6:25 PM  
I agree with Christopher that 65 HP is no longer a critical threshold. 65 HP is still very important and a key deciding point on the utility of many creatures: Skullclan Hunter, Duergar Champion, Efreeti, etc.

But, in support of the idea that 60 HP creatures have finally again become acceptable. Two examples prove the point: Werebear (with the +5 damage from the Half-Orc Paladin) and Grimlock Barbarian. Both have 60 HP but are now playable. Even as recent as the beginning of Angelfire, I was reticent to play 60 HP creatures, now I am less so.

As an example I have been fooling around with the following warband recently.

1 Ryld Argith
1 Red Samurai
1 Deathlock
3 Grimlock Barbarian
2 Orc Warrior

8 activations, 197 points or add an Orc Warrior for 12 limit games.

Although the Grimlocks are very vulnerable to creatures hitting them for 15 or 20 or 30 damage (a lot of opponents), their blindsight (ignore conceal) and +4 to hit wounded (from killer instinct) really make them pretty capable. The main downside of this warband is that as Monstrous Humanoids, they do not benefit from Ryld's humanoids only commander effect. The Red Samurai and Deathlock can get most enemy creatures damaged, so the Grimlocks have high yield.

In conclusion, I agree that 65+ HP is no longer critical for a ~30+ point heavy hitter. 60 HP creatures still probably have no place in tier 1 warbands, but at least they are close now.

Can anyone point to the specific reasons for this shift in the metagame, in only one set?

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01/20/2006 6:34 PM  
I don't think the shift has been made as a result of Underdark. Rather, just as the Renaissance didn't just happen one day in Venice but had a lot of pre-Renaissance stuff happening since at least the middle 13th century, I think the weakening of the 65 hit point barrier has been growing since Deathknell.

The three biggies that brought it on were the FB, the Orc Champ, and the Ogre Ravager. I think the Beholder and Couatl put a dent in this. After Deathknell, more pieces (interestingly, mostly still LE and LG) have made this shift take place (JA, Gith Monk, Chraal, etc.).

In a way, the weakening of the need to field pieces with at least 65 hit points seems to show a shift of power from Chaotic to Lawful.

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01/21/2006 8:36 AM  
Obviously, having 65hp is still important, and I don't think Chris is disputing that.

The metagame has finally shifted to a point where lawful factions are played. This is awesome and a long time coming.

When chaos were the sole competitors, the first thought that entered my head when I was choosing pieces for a warband was "can this piece take 30 points of damage BEFORE it does anything, and still contribute?" Because that was, more often than not, what was going to happen.

The ability to absorb damage is still important, but it's not the be-all-and-end-all that it once was.
I can take Gauth now and compete. I like that.

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01/21/2006 9:59 AM  
As Felagund pointed out, 65 is 5 more than alot of common damage multiples ... so 65 will always be an important mark. I'm not disputing that.

I've you've played competitively for a while you'll have absorbed some key little pieces of knowledge over time. And as you play, this shifts / mutates just a bit as you see the game develop.

65 was UTTERLY important in the days where you expected half of the serious threats to be swinging for 30/swing. You did not want to MC after a single swing. Now there's less of that.

Yes I know that 2x 15 = 30 ... and morale checking after two swings as opposed to 3 (the difference between 60 and 65) is important ... but not as important as when there were 30/swing hitters out there.

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01/21/2006 10:09 AM  
Once again my hats off to the designers... by a combination of subtle and not so subtle shifts, the game has been fairly radically shaken up, without the mass bannings of figures.

I agree: Not as important.

I haven't see the Ogre Rav in a newly proposed warband since Underdark was released, and really probalby for at least a month before that. Likewise, where Eye+Orc Champ used to show up in 45+% of warbands, they now seem to appear about 20% of the time, perhaps even less.

FB's are still around, but their frequency has pulled back a few points as well. the AoK seems to be the only hitter that I see being brought in new bands on a regular basis.

The question is, WHAT are the figurs with 55 or 60 from old sets that haven't seen play that are now viable.

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01/21/2006 10:35 AM  
Well, speed is still something to consider ... and bad/inefficient figures are still just that. Me though, I'd probably watch ...

Bladesinger - I've loved this mini for a long time, she's got potential to see a bit of a surge with her huge to-hit bonus.

Vampire Aristocrat - He showed up last year when the damage was really flying; armed with DR and some resistances I'd expect he may show up a bit more.

Battle Plate Marshal - I still like this guy's potential.

There are others that could see play in bits/pieces or as tech components (Mordy, Lareth). If the trend moves to the "hitter" block then there are a host of mobile 55 HP, 20-something point choices (Grimlock, Werebear, Griffon, etc.) Imagine if the Trog Barb, Winter Wolf, etc. had just 5 more hit points ... Anyway, the key with hitters is how many more can you squeeze in compared to a traditional "safe" choice ... if you can nearly double up or go 3 for 2, maybe the increased amount gives you resiliency that you need.

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01/21/2006 10:41 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by PatEllis15

The question is, WHAT are the figurs with 55 or 60 from old sets that haven't seen play that are now viable.
Good question.

Anyone want to cut-and-paste and then organize these by "now viable," "almost viable," and "still not viable"?

Here are my off-the-cuff responses.

60 hit points
Anvil of Thunder--nah
Battle Plate Marshall--maybe
Bearded Devil--no
Champion of Eilistraee--maybe
Couatl--yes
Dark Naga--yes
Destrachan--perhaps
Dire Lion--probably not
Drow Arachnomancer--probably not
Gold Champion--probably not
Griffon--maybe
Grimlock Barbarian--perhaps
Lareth the Beautiful--nah
Large Air Elemental--nah
Large Fire Elemental--nah
Red Dragon Wyrmling--nah
Salamander--probably not
Shambling Mound--no
Skullcrusher Ogre--probably not
Troll--no
Werebear--no
Wood Woad--perhaps
Wyvern--no

55 hit points
Bladesinger--perhaps
Catfolk Wilder--probably not
Cleric of Dol Arrah--yes
Copper Samurai--probably not
Fiendish Dire Wolverine--no
Githyanki Renegade--not very often
Githzerai Monk--yes
Half-Giant Psychic Warrior--possibly
Human Dragonslayer--probably not
Manticore--no
Mordenkainen the Mage--yes
Mummy--no
Ogre Zombie--no
Spiker Champion--probably not
Valorous Prince--no
Vampire Aristocrat--no
Young Master--yes

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01/21/2006 4:29 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Vrecknidj
Here are my off-the-cuff responses.


A reasonable first pass, but you needed to look a little deeper into the stats on some pieces... specifically point cost.

60 hit points
Destrachan--reasonably meaty with 4 cone weapons. I wouldn't take him as an early pick, but I wouldn't discount his potential utility to LE.

Gold Champion-- VERY high AC, solid hits, and a decent cone breath. Hasn't met the right commander; if something comes out that supplies benefits to dragons, he'll probably become viable again.

Grimlock Barbarian-- Makes an acceptable supplementary hitter. Can't be used in multiples as low attack bonus (even after special ability) makes him unlikely to hit hard targets.

Large Air Elemental--Would be useable if the incited ability were removed.

Skullcrusher Ogre--With the Chraal and Duergar Champion in the same cost slot, he's just not the threat you want.

Wood Woad--15 points. 15! He's immune to critical hits. He's a blocker for spellcasters. CG hasn't found the right commander for a strong spellcasting band yet, but when it does I think the wood woad will be their screener.


55 hit points

Too tired to go through this one. Indian food for lunch. Nap time....

Thanks for the memories. :)

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01/21/2006 5:02 PM  
It is very unlikely that we'll see a commander who boosts the Wood Woad by any amount ...

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01/21/2006 9:36 PM  
I guess I disagress that 65 is less important.
It's really such a break point, as others have pointed out, that saying less important to me is like saying "less pregnant."

Michael Derry might play those 60 pointers in local play now, but dollars to donuts says he does not show up for a big tourney with these guys in the band..... (right Derry? wink wink.)



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01/21/2006 10:04 PM  
The best way to say it might be that 65 HP is not as important as it used to be, but it still is important.

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01/21/2006 10:11 PM  
Actually, the question now is:

Are figures at 55/60 hp now tier 1? That is the heart of this thread.

Some say it is, while others still think not.

I think if the figure has superior threat range and special status effects then it might not need 65 hp. The fig I am thinking of is the Gith Monk. But aside from that one piece, I still don't think any 55/60 hp piece really is tier 1 yet.

Having answered the question thusly, I would have to say 65 hp is still a magic threshold and thus as important as it ever was. I think the Gith Monk is the exception that proves the rule in my eyes.

And another thing to consider: Even if you don't see many FBs, Ravs, or Eyes anymore, if your meta is heavy on Gith Monks, then you still need to have 65 hp cuz GMs+YM hit for 30 with their unavoidable strike+stun.


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01/21/2006 10:19 PM  
Agreed. The Githzerai Monk is most assuredly a tier 1 piece with less than 65 HP. And it might be the only frontliner in that cost range with this unusual trait.

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01/22/2006 10:12 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by Toxic_Rat

Seems like there are more higher powered spells around now too, not just minis with good melee bonuses. Maybe that's just my mis-perception though.


No no, this is known as the set power curve. As time goes on each sets pieces will be slightly if not terribly more powerful than similiar pieces released before. While this contantly shifts the game upwards for damage/effect/efficiency/armor/health its what keeps ALL collectible games going. The downside of having pieces "equal" for all time would be newer sets would not be very desirable to older players if they have a piece that is "just as good" as the new piece. Sadly this forces old pieces into obsoletion. Which is why Magic has multiple formats, to allow the newer pieces that are NOT more powerful than older pieces to get their time to shine before slowly rotating into the giant power abyss that 10 years cards/pieces will create.

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01/22/2006 11:44 AM  
I'm thinking that the power creep we've seen is going to level off at around the point it is at the moment. Underdark fed us quite a few creatures that were solid and is about where the bar should be set IMHO. Pushing it further would only cause even more imbalance between the sets which would be unnecessary.

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Chad the DragonLordofAiur
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01/23/2006 8:19 AM  
I think the answer to this question is yes only if older pieces under 65hp are now more playable and it seems to me they are not. The newer pieces with 60hp or less are playable only because they are more efficient and have other abilities to make them so, not because there are fewer appearances of the 30 damage hitters.

Whether a piece is playable always comes down to its efficiency of cost to abilities. HP is only one part of that equation.

@Felagund - Let me counter your point on the Gith Monk. If the Gith Monk's AC were 19 or less then his 55hp would be a liability and, reguardless of whether he struck first and stunned or not, the rest of the enemy warband could easily bring him to a morale save in just one or two activations.

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Vrecknidj
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01/23/2006 9:12 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by Chad the DragonLordofAiur

Whether a piece is playable always comes down to its efficiency of cost to abilities. HP is only one part of that equation.
And, there's no simple way to express this equation. Some pieces have speed 6 and would be worth their cost at speed 8. Some pieces do 5 magic damage but would only be worth their cost at 10 magic damage. Some commanders, like the Young Master and Inspiring Marshal, seem to only be good with the right followers, other pieces, perhaps like the Githzerai Monk, are best with the right commander, and might not see much play without that commander.

It would be nice if there were some formula, using hit points, speed, AC, attack modifier and damage to gauge whether any piece is "worthy," but there isn't.

In a sense, determining which pieces in the DDM skirmish game are good is a science because it's by empirical analysis and not a pure numerical analysis that reveals which pieces (in which combinations) are best.

That's what's so great about this community. I'd never have time to test all the pieces with my limit playing time and limited number of opponents. Here, I can read the results of hundreds of other players and compare their experiences to my own.

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01/23/2006 9:27 AM  
I agree with you chad; this is why on my watch list I only include two 55 HP figures that I'd watch closely (Bladesinger and Vampire Aristocrat). Both are pretty darn efficient ... but under the HP mark. Might we see more of them in the future? Dunno.

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doubtofbuddha
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01/23/2006 9:39 AM  
I don't know, I think its a bit of a stretch to call the Vampire Aristocrat efficient. Not only does he fail to break the 1:1 hp: cost ratio, but unlike other low hp commanders, he has difficulty affecting the combat in any meaningful way without place himself directly in the range of danger.

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01/23/2006 10:52 AM  
Watch list ... not guaranteed list [)]

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Felagund
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01/23/2006 12:47 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Chad the DragonLordofAiur

I think the answer to this question is yes only if older pieces under 65hp are now more playable and it seems to me they are not. The newer pieces with 60hp or less are playable only because they are more efficient and have other abilities to make them so, not because there are fewer appearances of the 30 damage hitters.

I think this is probably a good way of looking at this. 60 HP or less is bad, just as 11 AC is bad. The Gith Monk can make up for only having 55 HP, just as the Eye of Gruumsh can make up for only having 11 AC. The presence of figures who can compensate for a weakness doesn't really mean that it isn't still a weakness.

quote:

@Felagund - Let me counter your point on the Gith Monk. If the Gith Monk's AC were 19 or less then his 55hp would be a liability and, reguardless of whether he struck first and stunned or not, the rest of the enemy warband could easily bring him to a morale save in just one or two activations.

I agree that the 25 AC is important...but I think that speed 10 and stunning attack also contribute to protecting the Gith's low HP, though they are less reliable than the high AC. I see where you're coming from, though. 25 AC pretty much keeps him safe from the fodder.

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Orion72
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01/23/2006 1:31 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by doubtofbuddha

I don't know, I think its a bit of a stretch to call the Vampire Aristocrat efficient. Not only does he fail to break the 1:1 hp: cost ratio, but unlike other low hp commanders, he has difficulty affecting the combat in any meaningful way without place himself directly in the range of danger.


Don't knock my Vamp! I love this piece, mostly because it's a vampire, but also because it's so close to being good without actually being good. After the first round, it has the second highest Speed of any critter in the game (Air Elemental has 14 I think); 30 damage doesn't cause it to save (though two 30s will kill it); and its CFX is pretty darn cool. It fails on low damage output with only an average attack.

But Fearless pieces are really part of a whole other discussion. The big thing about 65 hp vs 60 or less, is that you don't save after a boosted Orc Champ hit or FB hit. And although we don't see as many OCs and FBs as before, we still see plenty of pieces with 2 attacks and 15 damage, which is nearly the same.
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