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Subject: WBC IV: Fire Bracket, Round 3

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psistef
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02/14/2006 6:56 PM  
Round 2 results:

GAME 1
Janos M. def Xenozephyer ⎟-6]
GAME 2
Vrecknidji def Jos1-1 ⎤-2]
GAME 3
IanB def Gloom ⎠-6]
GAME 4
Tried def Ack ⎞-6]
____________________________________________

And now…. The fiery Semi-Finals!!

Wherein we learn the answer to that eternal question, are Xendrick Champs gonaa win this thing, or Justicators?
We will also shed some light on the never-ending quagmire; What's funnier, a frozen drow or an ogre full of arrows?




The matchups:

Game One:

Janos M. Vs Vrecknidji

Game Two:

Ianb Vs Tried



Fight Fight Fight!!

Game One:

Janos M.

Champion of Eilistrae 48p
Longstrider Ranger 34 / 72
Longstrider Ranger 34 / 106
Xen'drick Champion 23 / 129
Xen'drick Champion 23 / 152
Lolth's Sting 7 / 159
Lolth's Sting 7 / 166
Wand Expert 33 / 199
with Magma Keep

The Idea is simple the open Terrain works for the three ranged attacker, while one of the Longstrider go for VP. Lolth's STings shall protect the CoE

vs

Vrecknidji

Justicator x3
Sword of Heironeous
Halfling Veteran
Caravan Guard x3
199 points
Mushroom Cavern Map


Game Two:

IanB

Well, I kicked around a number of ideas, but I finally couldn't resist the siren call of high variance:

ogre mage x4
dwarf skeleton x4

Basic theory: Cone everything. If you can get off all 4 cones of cold on real targets, you have a very strong chance of winning. Drow Outpost is your best map, thanks to the flying ogres.

vs

Tried

My band is simple:

Xen Champ x 6
Cleric of Kord
Warchanter

Its weak agasint the swarm bands, but otherwise very flexible. It should be able to hang against the heavy golem bands due to "Improved Countersong." This *can* also help in xendrick mirror matches. +4 on saves and commander 4 means the Xendrick rout on a 1-2. Kord gives the boys +2 (or +4) on their already respectable "to hit" rolls (and the capacity to step up and smack for 20 when required). The flexibility in the band is that it allows for some shoot and scoot early, and then directed swarm tactics later.

I really like the other xen champ bands as well.


So go! Vote! Burn it up!

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02/14/2006 6:56 PM  
Game 1: As much as i like Janos' build, it will be hard to stay away from three Justicators. My vote goes to Vrecknidj.

Game 2: Tried. Spell Resistance will play a huge part.

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02/14/2006 7:06 PM  
1 - These matches are getting closer. I'm going to actually go with Janos, despite his less powerful offense, because I think the longstriders have a serious chance to assassinate the SoH early and put the justicators out of command. Once they're out of command, it will be hard for them to hit the targets they really need to take out, and you can bring in the wand expert for 2 shots per round without worrying as much about getting based and killed. Still, a very close matchup I think.

2 - I can't vote.

My thoughts on my own matchup:

This is exactly the sort of matchup I had in mind with this band, despite the xen'driks being immune sleep and having spell resistance. There are a few points in my favor:

- The opposing commanders are toast. They're low hp and low level, and thus incredibly vulnerable to the fast ogre mages assassinating them via cones.

- Any xen'driks that do happen to get caught in the cones can still end up taking a significant amount of damage. The average result for a xen'drik caught in all 4 cones is a dead xen'drik. A much more likely result is that several of them will be caught in 2 cones each, and the average result there is a wounded xen'drik. Even 5 damage is good, since it puts them into 2 melee hit territory. 1 in 4 xen'driks hit by 2 cones will take damage from both cones, and the average result in that situation is also a dead xen'drik.

- Xen'driks do only 5 per hit; ogre mages have conceal 11 and regeneration 5. Because of flight and reach, it isn't so hard to maneuver the ogre mages so they can gang up on xen'driks 2 or 3 at a time. The hopefully OOC xen'driks will not be able to maneuver as well as the ogre mages; the regeneration 5 combined with wimpy 5 damage hits from the champs should allow the ogres to finish them off leisurely given average luck. The ogres will be whiffing at a fair clip too (hit only on 9+ or 7+ with flank, then conceal 6), but twice the conceal and 4 times the damage gives them the advantage, I think.

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02/14/2006 7:11 PM  
1: Vrecknidj, since the Justicars are good outsiders in this case.
2: Tried, spell resistance, immunity to sleep and activation control after first turn wins it for the XCs, though they have to protect their commanders.

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02/14/2006 7:13 PM  
Game 1: No vote
Game 2: Tried

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02/14/2006 7:17 PM  
Game 1: Vrecknidj

Game 2: IanB

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02/14/2006 7:47 PM  
match 1 - Vrecknidji - I think I go with Vrecknidji. His Justicators will hold, while I have the feeling the longstriders will route very fast, should they fail. In this matchup, it is very easy for BOTH players to kill each others commanders. Heee - that could lead to an interesting game. [(]

Match 2 - Just the typical Rant.
If I am the Ogre mage player, I hide my fodder to keep my activation advantage so that I can penetrate and use my cones, given the chance. (So I basically agree with Ian's appraisal of tactics.) I know this, because I tried damn hard to make OM work, because i love them. However, in reality, 4xOM is in trouble. Spell resistance means that two cones (on average) are useless vs the Xens. The fact that they are spells and not breath weapons means that he can't cast while based.- I can keep my warchanter exactly 6 squares back, out of the cones but close enough for CFX (Ie, +4 on saves for a total of +13). This fact is also important for defending my commanders - I can allow two open squares next to the commander, with the xen fanned out in front. I can allow myself to be based by one OM! - he can't cast anything! The fact that the Ogre mages make morale checks at only +8 means that its quite likely that one will rout early based purely on bowfire. (any attempt to use screeners will result in their rapid loss and totally blow his chance to stay in the game as he loses activations) The fact that the ogres are only fifth level means they are even vulnerable to Cleric of Kord's Fear spell (!!!)- though I'd not likely use that - they must MC after taking one hit from Kordy anyway, (so he stays in reserve until required). When it comes to melee, well, Kord and one other hit kill them outright (at +17 with Kords commander effect, so the chance of a miss is bascially their conceal role)-when they are at full hp. I gotta say, the Ogre mage could win with a tactical break and maybe a few fortuitous rolls, but assuming careful players on both sides, its not probable.


Let it be.

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02/14/2006 7:54 PM  
1: Janos, the conceal helps on the champions and I think overall he has more manueverability here.

2: IanB, conceal vs conceal, I think the cones will do too much damage to the champions.

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02/14/2006 7:55 PM  
1. Vreck
2. Tried

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02/14/2006 8:02 PM  
Vreck

Tried

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02/14/2006 8:06 PM  
Game 1: Janos M.
Game 2: Tried

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02/14/2006 8:09 PM  
1. Vren the Justicators are a good piece that are on the brink.

2 Tried. It is getting hard for me to say this[:0]

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02/14/2006 9:13 PM  
Game 1: Vrecknidji - Smite Chaos! 'nuff said.

Game 2: IanB - I'm picturing a bunch of commanderless Xendriks some of which are asleep not being able to chase down the Ogre Mages and getting picked off slowly. There's just too much variance and the Xendriks don't have that much more HP.

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02/14/2006 9:23 PM  
Next up Fire time...

Game 1--Vrecknidji--This is difficult. The longstriders drop the Sword of H., but then they'll have trouble with the sturdy and effective Tri-Justicators. The wand expert could even it up nicely, however. Eh, I've made my choice and I'm sticking to it.

Game 2--IanB--I just don't think the Xendricks can deal the requisite damage to drop ogres before they Cone of Cold over everything, which should punish those low hp drow. However, SR is important too. Still, gotta give it to the ogres, they've got enough going for them.

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02/14/2006 10:00 PM  
1.Vrecknidj.

2.IanB.
Out-of-command xendricks are in for a beating. Don't forget that by using Dwarf skels as cone targets, IanB will have a lot of targeting flexibility.

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02/14/2006 10:02 PM  
So far...

Vreck Η] v Janos Α]

Tried Ε] v IanB Β]


OOOOooOOOoOOHHHH

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02/14/2006 10:49 PM  
These both are pretty tough matches.

1) Vrecknidji

Gonna have to go with the survivability of the Justicators. I imagine two will be dead before the end, but I think they'll just pull it out.

2) IanB

This is a tough one. Any amount of bad luck will go a long way for both sides. I think the HeX is going to struggle a little against the Conceal 11 and Regen, especially if the Ogre Mage player coontinually presents a new target. If it were more diverse, like Janos M's band, I'd probably give my nod to the CG band.

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02/14/2006 10:51 PM  
Vreck wins
IanB wins

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02/15/2006 2:54 AM  
1.) -

I think Vrecknidj warband is the better one, if our XP were the same, it would be a hard time getting my Longstriders to his Commander with out aoo's and after killing the commander his Justicator's beat the hell out of my 2x longstriders. I my mind i could win if the Lolth's sting will hit and poisening their oponnents.

2.) Tried

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02/15/2006 2:57 AM  
Game 1 - Vrecknidji
*Triple Justicator's are too hard too keep up with. One oe two might die, but it wont be enough.

Game 2 - Tried
*Too low HP on the Ogre magi. Xen'driks will pick them apart. Spell Resistance helps too.

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02/15/2006 5:18 AM  
G1 = obstain

G2 = IanB, go OM x 4 go.ΖD]

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02/15/2006 5:58 AM  
Game 1: Vreck. I'm gonna go with the guy that beated me once again. The Justicators and "Smite Chaos" are great against the fast moving band. But I really like the other band.

Game 2: Tried. Xen' Champs swarms. Nuff' said.


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02/15/2006 11:19 AM  
1. Vrecknidji

2. IanB

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02/15/2006 11:41 AM  
see.. I think I would have totally creamed 4x Ogre Mages.. but I got paired up against 6x Xendricks..
/sigh
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02/15/2006 12:16 PM  
1: Vrecknidji
2: IanB

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02/15/2006 12:28 PM  
1 Vreck
2 IanB

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02/15/2006 4:26 PM  
1 vreck
2 Tried

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02/15/2006 4:30 PM  
"We will also shed some light on the never-ending quagmire; What's funnier, a frozen drow or an ogre full of arrows?"

Apparently, frozen drow are becoming funnier...[)]


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02/15/2006 6:17 PM  
Mmmmmm! Tasty!

So far, Vrecknidji ⎞] seems to be swiftly justicatoring his fast moving opposition Janos M Α].

The really interesting past of all this is the Ogres v Drow, with both IanB and Tried tied on ⎗]!

I'm so excited I could cone of cold all over my own longbow!!

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02/15/2006 6:25 PM  
I, too, will go with:

1 Vreck

2 IanB

Justicators probably have at least a little bit of an edge, and while I really didn't take the time to analyze it that much, and have no idea what I would think after playing the match a couple times, I think the Ogre Mage's regen, high damage attack, and conceal 11 give them the edge. For example, if the Xendrik player defends against the cone something like the way Tried described, I can imagine a winning play being to simply land a couple Ogre Mages next to all those spread out Xendriks. The xendriks either have to take an aoo, or they actually do *less* damage, and can't combine attacks on the same target, which in light of the the Regen and conceal 11, is necessary.

Likewise, if the Xendriks (and Cleric of Kord, maybe) do successfully combine attacks to take out one Ogre Mage, it leaves the ability for the other Ogre Mages to hit a clump of figures with the cone. The clincher being that I could see an unhurt Ogre Mage taking up to *4* aoos from Xendriks gladly, in return for getting off his cone from most anywhere with F8. The low expected damage from a Xendrik aoo makes a big difference in this matchup.

All taken together, I see the Ogre Mage warband as the one having so much more tactical flexibility that I think that side would have an option - no matter what the Xendriks try - that gives them the odds to win.

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02/15/2006 6:38 PM  
I'm beginning to think all I know is wrong.[:)]
Someone meet me on vassal tonight and lets figure this out...


Let it be.

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02/15/2006 6:49 PM  
Vreck, but close. If he opens up the Sword at all, it will swing, especially since he'll be behind tile points.

IanB, because enough cones will stick and if first-turn sleeps stick the commanders....

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02/15/2006 7:51 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Tried

I'm beginning to think all I know is wrong.[:)]
Someone meet me on vassal tonight and lets figure this out...


Lol! Actually, the Ogre Mage x4 vs Xendrik x6 would be very amusing to see or play. [:)] While I've predicted a winner, I still say I don't have more than a wild guess as to how it would really play out.

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02/15/2006 9:42 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Tried

I just played it out.

OM won in 9 rounds with 1 OM and 1 dwarf skelly left, fleeing to hide on tiles. 3 xen are left - two have 30 hp, one has 5.

Some interesting notes:

Map: Fane
Round on which both Xendrick commanders were dead: 7
Number of Inits won by 4xOM: 8/9
Total Number of bowshots taken by Xen in game: 6 (3 hits).
Number of Ogre mage that made morale checks: 2/3
Number of times Xen SR blocked cone of cold: 4/13
Number of failed saves vs cone by Xen: 2/9
Number of failed saves by aspect of Kord: 1/1
Number of times OM connected in melee: 3/10

The OM squeaked out a victory, but were pretty impotent once they had used up their cones. Similarly, Xen that attacked OM were obligated to keep pressure up - it requered going to town on one with 2-3 to kill them after they made morale. The init ratio may have made a difference in the outcome. Round 2 and 3 were big rounds for the 4OM, and being able to regen 5 before the opponent swings is always nice.



I guess the one big surprise for me there is how long it took for the OMs to kill the commanders. My game plan would definitely be to go after them hard, I'd expect results by turn 3 or 4. The statistical results on stuff like SR are a bit off but within the realm of possibility, I guess.

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02/15/2006 9:43 PM  
I just played it out.

OM won in 9 rounds with 1 OM and 1 dwarf skelly left, fleeing to hide on tiles. 3 xen are left - two have 30 hp, one has 5.

Some interesting notes:

Map: Fane
Round on which both Xendrick commanders were dead: 8
Number of Inits won by 4xOM: 8/9
Total Number of bowshots taken by Xen in game: 6 (3 hits).
Number of Ogre mage that made morale checks: 2/3
Number of times Xen SR blocked cone of cold: 4/13
Number of failed saves vs cone by Xen: 2/9
Number of failed saves by aspect of Kord: 1/1
Number of times OM connected in melee: 3/10

The OM squeaked out a victory, but were pretty impotent once they had used up their cones. Similarly, Xen that attacked OM were obligated to keep pressure up - it requered going to town on one with 2-3 to kill them after they made morale. The init ratio may have made a difference in the outcome. Round 2 and 3 were big rounds for the 4OM, and being able to regen 5 before the opponent swings is always nice.


Let it be.

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02/15/2006 9:56 PM  
I can post the snapshots I took each round from vassal.

OMs really did go after the commanders...


Let it be.

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02/15/2006 10:41 PM  
Game One:

Vrecknidji

Game Two:

Tried


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Broken Hill

02/15/2006 11:37 PM  
1.Janos M ( i can't vote against longstriders no matter the match up)
2.Ian B


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