DDM Australian Champion 2005
psistef
Underboss
1572 Posts
    
 | | 02/17/2006 1:36 AM |
| And the answers are: (a) Justicators beat Xendricks and (b) Frozen Drow are funnier than Orges fulla’ holes!!
In the round three semi-finals, Vrecknidji defeated Janos M’s fast moving CG band 21 to 4!
IanB froze out Tried’s HeXendrick squad narrowly, with a final score of 14 to 12 – the Fire Bracket’s closest match to date.
…risin' up, back on the street…..
And so, the moment I’ve all been waiting for…..
….Did my time, took my chances…
The Fire Bracket Final!!
My friends, we are about to watch a battle of the ages. Six wings. Three bendy swords. Seven large bases. Four big cones. One tiny halfling.. Six legs in baggy white polymorphable pants. A surprising lack of caravans.
…went the distance, now I’m back on my feet….
Now, let the heavens reign down fiery destruction up on the final battle!!!
….just a man and his will to survive…..
Ogres and Angels! The epic confrontation!
…it's the eye of the tiger, it's the cream of the fight…..
Vrecknidji
Justicator x3
Sword of Heironeous
Halfling Veteran
Caravan Guard x3
199 points
Mushroom Cavern Map
vs
IanB
Well, I kicked around a number of ideas, but I finally couldn't resist the siren call of high variance:
ogre mage x4
dwarf skeleton x4
Basic theory: Cone everything. If you can get off all 4 cones of cold on real targets, you have a very strong chance of winning. Drow Outpost is your best map, thanks to the flying ogres.
….Risin' up to the challenge of our rival….
So now, let us vote for he who shall rule the day!!
And the last known survivor stalks his prey in the night
And he's watchin' us all in the eye of the tiger
| |
Champion of the Prestige Class where mages focus on telekenesis and start throwing people into the ceiling and uber stuff like that.
Desirer of a Commander Effect in CG that grants Sidestep to followers with a ranged attack. | |
|
robbdaman
Underboss
2380 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 3:00 AM |
| Gotta hand it to Vrecknidji. The Ogre Mages only have the cone to rely on for spells and the saves are easy enough. Vreck would win inits and then proceed to cause problems for the Ogres with their weak attack bonuses needing a 15 or higher to hit under normal circumstances. The only hope for them is the conceal rolls and Vreck would have to miss a lot of them to lose.
R~ | |
Champion of the Titan
******************************************************************************************************************************************************
Successful trades with: Tickparasite, Iyceman, Faragdar The Wise's friend, avrivah, Drakkengi, brucemc, Krush, maniacal_mini_monger, hung4treason, Gandy, NarlethDrider, Kunimatyu, etc, etc, blah, blah, blah..... | |
|
Low Key
Underboss
1231 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 3:17 AM |
| Justicator's will squash the poor Ogres. Even with conceal 11 and regeneration, 35 hp isnt enough. All it takes is two hits for a morale save. Sure, the cones might hurt, but with a speed of F8, the Justicator's can avoid some of the cones.
Vrecknidji wins. | |
Champion of the Sarrukh | |
|
Janos M.
Underboss
1015 Posts
Hamburg / GErmany
| | 02/17/2006 3:17 AM |
| I go with IanB.
Whoever field such an warband must be good enough to win against the Justicator's or die realy fast... | |
My Haves and wants:
http://www.maxminis.com/hw_list.asp?user=Janos_M.
Champion of Elan Psions
Proud Owner of the "Aura of cursed dice" | |
|
Avatar of the Tank
Newtoncain
Commander
2985 Posts
Land of 10,000 taxes
| | 02/17/2006 5:39 AM |
| | IanB, go OM go.ΖD] | |
They just don't know what's good in life...Conan, tell them what is good in life.
To rip the boosters. To count the minis spilled out before you, and to hear the indifference of the women... | |
|
nycfarmkid
Underboss
1210 Posts
Wadsworth, OH
| |
Gloom_
Sergeant
583 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 7:03 AM |
| Ianb.
Ogre Magi > All [:D] | |
| |
|
ShadowLord XT
Commander
2632 Posts
Plane of Shadow
| | 02/17/2006 8:45 AM |
| | Final -IanB | |
Disipline is the only way to overcome chaos.
Champion of Half-Golems
Knight of Golems
"This world is made for love and peace" - Trigun
"anyway..shadow..you've figured women out. KUDOS." - raye_kino16 | |
|
forkedmoon
Underboss
1305 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 8:53 AM |
| | Vrecknidji | |
Champion of Cyclops
| |
|
rhane
Underboss
1412 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 8:55 AM |
| Vrecknidji...
I gotta believe that the Justicators are nigh-on Fearless with a +17 Morale Save. Thats just too many HP for the Mages to handle. | |
Rhane
"The focus is sharp in the city..."
Have/Want List
Reference thread
Avatar Thread
| |
|
XenoZephyr
Underboss
1083 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 9:03 AM |
| | 1: Vrecknidji, I love the Ogres but I think the Justicators will take it. | |
| |
|
The Defenestrator
AesophDarkfable
Warlord
5628 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 9:10 AM |
| | Vreck. Mages dont have enough damage to take out that many justicators. | |
Im out- find me on Hordelings if you want to chat. | |
|
Mortusbard
Sergeant
427 Posts
North Carolina
| | 02/17/2006 9:39 AM |
| | Vrend I cant see how the OM will even stand in the face of them. | |
Unto Death We Strive,
From Birth unto the Dust, | |
|
zephyrstorm
Sergeant
528 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 10:22 AM |
| | Vrecknidji | |
Champion of the Hellwasp Swarm
New subscriber to rule #0: bshugg is always right. | |
|
Hero of Skirmish
doubtofbuddha
Commander
3371 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 10:22 AM |
| Justicators For The Win!
(Though I have a soft spot for the Ogre Magi, I don't think they can win this one...) | |
I am not gone. | |
|
Tactician
Sergeant
888 Posts
| |
Tried
Sergeant
501 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 11:34 AM |
| Vreck.
Let me also point out that I feel that this was the match I was destined to lose, rather than Ian...[)]
| |
Let it be. | |
|
taliesin
Underboss
1113 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 11:35 AM |
| | Vrecknidji. The big problem with high variance warbands, is that eventually you hit something your tricks just don't work against. Triple Justice is the OM's brick wall today. | |
Champion of the Entire Monster Manual 1!
(Click link to see current progress!)
Uncommon Painting Competition 2 Winner | |
|
ickthegreat
Warrior
291 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 12:33 PM |
| IanB
| |
trades pending: (0)
everything is perfectly going out of control
| |
|
Prince o the Raven Banner
Sergeant
606 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 1:54 PM |
| | Vrecknidji, Though I love the OM The big Angels rule the Roost. | |
Two trades completed!! (Krush,Hides From Hurricanes)
Champion of the Aaracokra
Herald Of Snig Goblin King | |
|
IanB
Commander
3112 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 2:12 PM |
| This would be a tough matchup for me, no doubt.
My strategy on this would obviously be to get as many cones on justicators as possible, using sleep spells if I get a good setup.
Some numbers on that:
Justicators fail sleep saves 15% of the time. With the possibility of up to 4 sleep saves, that means there's a reasonable chance of putting a couple of them to sleep for a round, which could help immensely in setting up a cone of cold.
Chance for a justicator to make a DC 19 cone of cold save is 55%. Justicators have 80 hps. If a justicator is hit with all 4, it is by default 1 ogre melee hit away from dead, and has a reasonable chance to die outright. A justicator hit by 3 cones will usually have 60 damage on it, which is also one hit from dead. A justicator hit by 2 cones will have 30 or 50 damage on it, most likely. If it fails both, that's good times as it is then also 1 melee hit from death. I will likely take any chance I can to get 2 justicators in a given cone. Expecting him to give me 3 is probably not worth worrying about.
Ogres vs. justicators in melee isn't quite as bad as it first seems as well.
Justicators are AC 22, no conceal. Ogres are AC 18, with conceal 11.
An ogre attacking a justicator hits on a 13, for 20 damage. A justicator hits on 2 with the first hit and a 6 with the second hit, but has to pass conceal. The odds would seem to indicate that a justicator will only average one hit per round against an ogre, which hits for 15. The ogres don't morale check after just one hit, which is important.
An ogre mage that makes its morale check (this is certainly not automatic) will typically last 2-3 rounds in melee against a justicator, which means they have a pretty good chance to put the final 20 damage on one, with a good chance that at least 2 of the justicators will be in that situation.
I think this is definitely a winnable game - there are a lot of luck dependent elements here that come in at or near the 50% mark - saving throws, conceal checks, attack rolls, etc. I'm thinking victory odds for me are probably in that zone too. It is a fairly bad matchup, but not nearly as bad as some of the bands in the finals in other brackets (ghaele or demogorgon is a death sentence, since they have blindsight and cold resistance...) | |
Anson on WotC boards | |
|
robbdaman
Underboss
2380 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 2:25 PM |
| Actually Ian you need to roll a 15 to hit unless you're assuming flank.
R~ | |
Champion of the Titan
******************************************************************************************************************************************************
Successful trades with: Tickparasite, Iyceman, Faragdar The Wise's friend, avrivah, Drakkengi, brucemc, Krush, maniacal_mini_monger, hung4treason, Gandy, NarlethDrider, Kunimatyu, etc, etc, blah, blah, blah..... | |
|
Aramus
Warrior
181 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 2:42 PM |
| | Gotta go with Vreck, although a few favorable rolls or poor placement could cause problems | |
Play and have fun, this hobby is an escape from the harsh realities of life | |
|
IanB
Commander
3112 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 4:07 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by robbdaman
Actually Ian you need to roll a 15 to hit unless you're assuming flank.
R~
Whoops, yes, ogres are +7, not +9. | |
Anson on WotC boards | |
|
jacksonm
Warlord
5560 Posts
River City
| | 02/17/2006 4:20 PM |
| | Victory to the Justicators. | | | |
|
Aesnath
Underboss
1358 Posts
Augusta, GA
| | 02/17/2006 5:13 PM |
|
Hmm, this could be tricky. I'm going to have to go with....
Vrecknidji
'cause he'd have to allow at least a couple of his justicators to get caught in a cone or two at the same time for the whole shebang to favor the OMs. | |
**Note: Unless otherwise stated all my minis are unbagged**
My reference thread is at: http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=12765
Graduate school is swollowing my soul!!!!
Champion of the Raumathari Battlemage!
| |
|
HidesFromHurricanes
Warrior
289 Posts
| | 02/17/2006 11:25 PM |
| | Vrecknidj, three good hitters with high commander are going to be tough to beat. | |
Champion of Savage Bard (Unearthed Arcana: Bard Variant)
Bloodwars Called shot (vindicated) Demonic Gnoll Adept/Priestess
Old Jagermonster Saying: Any Plan vere you luz your hat iz a BAD Plan. | |
|
thepostman
Sneak
75 Posts
| | 02/18/2006 7:46 PM |
| | Vreck. | |
| |
|
tree druid
Sergeant
414 Posts
| | 02/18/2006 7:59 PM |
|
IanB
Just because.... | |
After all the battles, all the death, life can begin again
Champion of Radiant Dragons | |
|
bshugg
Underboss
1832 Posts
| | 02/18/2006 9:17 PM |
| Vrecknidj
You have to judge these based on equal play skill. If both players are good, there not going to make ANY mistakes. If both players are average, they are going to miss as many opportunities as make mistakes.
If the ogre mage's are played well enough to get off good cones, then the justicators are going to be played well enough to avoid grouping to be hit by multiple cones. Once the cones are fired all 3 justicators should be standing, or one dead and the other 2 at full strength. | |
Looking for someone to cosponser a midwest DDM event. let me know if your interested!
Check out my brand new blog:
http://bshugg.blogspot.com | |
|
Compasmasternecro
Skirmisher
22 Posts
| | 02/18/2006 9:45 PM |
| Vrecknidji
THe ogre mages just can't chew through all the hp and the ac on the justicators whom will tear them apart. the mushroom cavern is not a great map for the mages either since there are almost no tunnel areas to group up to head from the multi large bases | |
| |
|
DDM Australian Champion 2005
psistef
Underboss
1572 Posts
| | 02/18/2006 10:49 PM |
| I'm voting for IanB. I'm confident it can be done.
With that, Vreck is in the lead 22 to 7. | |
Champion of the Prestige Class where mages focus on telekenesis and start throwing people into the ceiling and uber stuff like that.
Desirer of a Commander Effect in CG that grants Sidestep to followers with a ranged attack. | |
|
IanB
Commander
3112 Posts
| | 02/19/2006 6:54 AM |
| | To be honest I find it incredibly amusing that the ogre mage band made it this far at all. :) | |
Anson on WotC boards | |
|
synecdoche
Warrior
252 Posts
| | 02/19/2006 1:13 PM |
| | Vrecknidj. Congrats to Ian for taking the OMs this far, but sooner or later you were going to hit a warband that out-muscled the Ogres. | |
Champion of the Green Hag | |
|
Gloom_
Sergeant
583 Posts
| | 02/19/2006 1:24 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by tree druid
IanB
Just because....
Ian B | |
| |
|
juice
Warrior
175 Posts
| | 02/19/2006 2:38 PM |
| Vrecknidji
| |
| |
|
zenthrus
Warlord
5082 Posts
SLC, UT
| | 02/19/2006 2:50 PM |
| My dice would give the win to IanB [:D]
However, I'll vote for Vrecknidji. OMs don't have enough HP despite their conceal. | |
Knight Warlord a.k.a. Commander (#32) in only 6 months. Where's my pie?
Champion of Dwarven Thunderlashers
Knight of the Large Dire Chicken
Have/Want List
Trade References | |
|
TheDarklion
Sneak
131 Posts
| | 02/19/2006 5:47 PM |
| Vreck
The ogres had a good run but justis are just too much for them. | |
Crush your enimies, see them driven before you, and hear the lementations of thier women | |
|
Kypdurron
Underboss
1206 Posts
Broken Hill
| | 02/19/2006 7:00 PM |
| | ian b....for thinking outside the box | |
my trade data
email
Completed trades:Nixlord,Lexander , DarkFather x2 ,minotoman38 x2, Mojoical, Smilin Irish, Smithmeg, Bugsy, Doone, gmd316,Bossman.Dargoth
Bad Trades:Chaotic Good ,
,Champion Of Plush Wrackspawn | |
|
Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 02/20/2006 2:51 AM |
| Ian B
No, not because I feel sorry for him, or am rooting for the underdog, but this is a rough matchup for the Justicators.
With respect to bshugg's opinion, I don't think an expert player can avoid bunching the Justicators. The large bases of the Justicators is the factor that makes the biggest difference. Secondly, I don't think the Justicators can effectively fight through the conceal 11, 2 hits to check, 3 to kill of the Ogre Mages (and Regen 5 matters if given 3 rounds to heal) without combining fire - aka bunching up.
Also, the Sword of Heironeous is a sitting duck, most likely. One cone, and a hit; or two cones (86% chance); or even a sleep (40% chance) followed up with an auto crit same phase. He goes down, and first off, the Ogre Mages may well be able to win without fighting, but secondly the Justicators have an init disadvantage, and rout off the board 45% of the time after 40 dmg.
In comparison, the Justicators just don't do damage very fast, thanks to conceal 11, and the Smite Chaos won't work. The Ogre Mages don't do all that well in melee head to head, but it's the 4 cones that should beat the Justicators, I think. Even the sleep trick works alright against the Justicators. If all three are hit by the area effect, and there's a second Mage waiting to go that phase within attack range of each Justicator, there's actually a 39% chance that one (or more) of the three will fall asleep, thus getting hit for 40 by the second Ogre Mage. Even if only two get hit by the sleep cone, that's still a 28% chance.
It's close, and Justicators are far better creatures in general, but Ogre Mages are powerful when neither of their main abilities are countered (conceal, and a spell that does cold dmg). Large bases, and a weak commander play into their hands, and 35 hp is a far better mark against 15 dmg attacks than against 10, 20, or 25 dmg attacks.
Ogre Mages should quickly get *at least* two Justicators down 60 hp, by hitting the same 2 with 3 cones. I think that's actually a weak outcome - they should manage better than that, there's 4 cones total, and they should manage 3 pretty often, I think. But two with three cones is easy. By killing two fast, the lone Justicator can actually get beat down in melee, just through number superiority. Or, better yet, kill Sword and run from him collecting VP to get to 200.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
|