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Deoxy
Warrior
225 Posts
    
 | | 05/30/2006 12:37 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Chairman7w
quote:
Originally posted by Myth Master Jr
I tell ya what, when you can sit throug a torunament with me and watch me roll the dice, then you can post a comment on it. The circles I play in all know it. And it extends beyond DDM into other games with dice. I'm very unlucky with them, plain and simple. Sorry if that OFFENDS you somehow?
Aaahhh, no worries. I'm not offended at all. I just think it's a bit of a fallback for some people to make a blanket statement like, "I never roll good." Some may interpret that as, "Any time I lose it's not my fault, the dice just went against me. I'm notorious for that." I believe it can be a slight to any player that beats you. It's like saying, "You won, but you just got lucky" without actually saying it.
We all have our bad days (and games) but none of us have the "power" to affect dice in a life-long way, in every game, sorry.
And I don't need to "be there" to comment on something. (that's why I said, "It's my opinion". I'll comment on WWII, or politics, or sports, never actually being there. It's what we do on a message board.
(shrug) No big deal either way. Let's play on Vassal sometime and keep track of the rolls, I think you'd be surprised that they average out just like everybody elses. But hey, I've been wrong before.
Some people simply don't roll well. The laws of probability being what they are, there are a very few people in the world whose lifetime average will be very low. I happen to be one of them, as attested by people I've played in games for years. YEARS. In some ways, I almost appreciate it, as it makes me a MUCH better player - have to be, to even have a chance. When the dice don't cap on me (and they don't crap on me ALL the time), I almost always ANNIHILATE my opponents, as I'm used to having a much MUCH harder time of it.
It doesn't bother me anymore (well, almost never). I just calculate the "real" odds, then divide by 2 when dealing with myself.
And trust me, it's not a "power" I have - if it was, I sure the heck wouldn't USE it! | |
No longer active on MaxMinis | |
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Chairman7w
Sergeant
484 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 2:00 PM |
| Just remember to always use your power for good. Never Ever for convenience or expedience, those lead to the Dark Side.
Now - as far as the Qualifier, I've not had mine yet, but the way the meta is changing on an almost weekly basis, I'm not comfortable trying to plan for one band.
I think a solid band well played has as much chance as any other. | |
Dr. Simon: A phrase that's encoded in her brain, that makes her fall asleep. If I speak the words, "Eta...
Jayne: Well don't say it!
Zoë: It only works on her, Jayne. | |
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IanB
Commander
3112 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 2:09 PM |
| I will never cease to be amazed by what people will believe in when it comes to "luck".
You supposedly "always unlucky" people should write down all the d20 rolls in your next 20 matches, and then see just where it leaves you. | |
Anson on WotC boards | |
| D&D Miniatures
Guru
guyf
Sergeant
545 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 3:09 PM |
| I agree with Ian.
Luck is certainly a factor in matches, but skill is *far* more important than luck.
I got significant good luck in 4 matches in the Mesa AZ qualifier. However, I only won two of those matches. In the two good lucky wins, either good decisions on my part and/or poor decisions on my opponent's part enabled me to capitalize on that luck. In the two losses where I had good luck, I failed to make the good decisions that would have been necessary to take advantage of the luck.
In my experience, you usually have to outplay your opponent to reap the rewards of most instances of good luck. Or to put it another way: In most cases, if you are being outplayed, good luck isn't going to help you win the match. Likewise, if you are outplaying your opponent, most instances of bad luck won't lose the match for you. | |
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Guy Fullerton
Official D&D Miniatures Net Rep | |
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True_Blue
Underboss
2386 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 4:49 PM |
| Also you have to take into account situations. I've seen it where ppl needed an 11 or more in order to hit, and then get frustrated when they arent rolling 11+ each time. Its a 50% chance, you arent going to get them all.
Also, good rolls sometimes happen when they dont matter as much. More ppl remember the 20 someone rolled to get a critical hit against their mini, then the 20 the person rolled to win Init. So you may have rolled just as many high ones as low ones, but they werent when you exactly wanted them. So it looks "bad".
Also many ppl say that they would have won if the dice would have gone better. I think everyone is a master strategist, but the dice keep them down! =) *shrug* I've seen the dice screw me over, but for the most part I've just tried to adjut my playing style and if it happens, roll with it and try to still eek out the win. | |
Champion of a Knight of Takhisis/Knight of Neraka | |
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jos1-1
Sergeant
829 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 5:21 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by IanB
I will never cease to be amazed by what people will believe in when it comes to "luck".
You supposedly "always unlucky" people should write down all the d20 rolls in your next 20 matches, and then see just where it leaves you.
not only the rolls ian but the timing of the rolls.
(a little off topic)-i bet you seen a magic player get mana screwed many a times right?
here's an example of my luck that went on for about half a year and my friends dad (40+) very smart man played and was stunned at my man luck. I would play with my buddy and his dad all the time and 3 out of 5 games i got totaly mana screwed, no mana. this went on for a little while then i deiced to add more mana to my decks. (up to aobut 21 at that point) so we started again, i start 1 mana, 4 turns later another mana then i lose. i look thow my deck see ALL the mana bunch up at the bottem and i fix it so there was no mana beside each other and did it up right nice EVERY match. say 30 games of magic over 1½ month i got screwed say 21 times, it was unreal. it then happened to my buddys dad but he played elvs so it didnt matter much.
(back on topic)-on the timing factor, man i can tell you how many times i needed just 1 hit with a decent hitting at a 70% chance to hit and then miss or need a win to start first at +2 higher and lost. bad luck at a bad time it whats makes people feel unlucky i think. i mean if you tried to hit a fodder with a FB and rolled a 1 but you already won the game, who it gonna care?
another example of WEIRD luck: playing d&d using D champs (LE) us a marut and mounted paladin. i had 3 champs and i almost never missed. as soon as i tried to hit the fodder, i missed and rolled 1's and all kinds of crazy bad luck, but i didnt care or count as it unlucky caz all my good rolls where on tartget. (all about the timing)
sorry about the long post with no grammer or spelling fixs, i got to go and do a bunch of HW and i dont got much time to reread that :P. | |
Poor student looking for minis =D | |
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Gunthar
Commander
2938 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 5:22 PM |
| Probably close to what I took:
Cleric of Lathander
Justicator x2
Justice Archon
Sacred Watcher x2
timber Wolf
Hill Dwarf Warrior
I knew Maruts would be there, I knew Sacred Watchers were coming as I'd played with variations of of Couatl/Marut/Sacred Watchers since Wardrums came out. I had been toying with bringing out the Exorcist of the Silver Flame as a commander to combat Maruts and other SR baddies with lot's of Sacred Watchers and Justice Archons swinging at +14. | |
Champion of Prit(Wemic vindication is here)
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Myth Master Jr
Sergeant
418 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 5:24 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by IanB
You supposedly "always unlucky" people should write down all the d20 rolls in your next 20 matches, and then see just where it leaves you.
I wouldn't call myself unlucky, just bad with dice. My so called "Bad Luck" doesn't go beyond die rolling. It also effects other games with dice as well.
I am up for the challenge though. I'm getting together this weekend with my local group for some practice for the grinder at gencon. I'll keep track of all my rolls through the matches and see where it leaves me. I'll then compare that to my next tournament and report it all back here in another topic. I'll make sure to get some of my fellows to post here to confirm the results.
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| 2005 D&D Miniatures Champion
Fenris
Sergeant
974 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 5:37 PM |
| quote:
Just remember to always use your power for good. Never Ever for convenience or expedience, those lead to the Dark Side.
On the contrary! Anybody who genuinely believes, deep down, that they are unlucky, should go win themselves a million dollars:
http://www.randi.org/research/index.html
Because at heart, if you’re genuinely able to roll consistently below the statistical average, then basically what you’ve got is a paranormal power. And you might as well use it to take Randi’s money! [)]
But more on topic: if I had a time machine, I’d go back and actually play in a qualifier or two. No worries about causing a paradox, since I sure wouldn’t meet myself doing this. [:(]
Like Mr.Groves, I’d probably use some version of CE quad. AC25 only takes a Marut player so far when you’re swinging at +17 or +15 with a flanking Eye or Champ, and only need 3 hits to kill it. You do lose badly to HGB, so you just hope for a good first-round matchup and go from there. | |
Read my championship tournament report.
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Chairman7w
Sergeant
484 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 5:44 PM |
| Just remember people: It's a 5% chance to land on any number, every time you roll it. Period. Doesn't matter what you rolled the previous hundred (or thousand) times.
Again, I say, the dice don't know who's rolling them; You nor I have any special powers or Unpowers to control the dice; Some people just choose to remember the bad rolls more than the good rolls. All my opinion, of course. | |
Dr. Simon: A phrase that's encoded in her brain, that makes her fall asleep. If I speak the words, "Eta...
Jayne: Well don't say it!
Zoë: It only works on her, Jayne. | |
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GiliusThunderHead
Sneak
99 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 6:11 PM |
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Hi All! I have mixed feelings on this. I agree with Guy 100% in regards to being lucky isn't gonna cut it if you make to many mistakes. I rolled very poorly against Guy in AZ, but due to mistakes made on my part, I can't realistically blame die rolls, although it does make it easier to swallow ;) .
I brought Death Slaad/Blue Slaad x2 to the AZ qualifier, and I can't say that the band had anything to do with my 2 losses. Mistakes were reason number 1, and, oh yeah, those poor rolls against Guy didn't really help either. Meta means very little if you can't play a "major" mistake-free game.
The question will always remain though, how can we be sure that all dice are created equal?
--GTHead
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 6:56 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Deoxy
Some people simply don't roll well. The laws of probability being what they are, there are a very few people in the world whose lifetime average will be very low. I happen to be one of them, as attested by people I've played in games for years. YEARS.
Had you used the past tense, I'd agree with you - although knowing human nature and the probability of being consistantly unlucky over more than 100 games, I'd say there'd be at least 10 times as many people who think they are unlucky vs those who actually have been unlucky.
Anyway, you said you happen to be one of the people whose lifetime average WILL be very low. How can you know this? It is true that there are a very tiny number of people whose lifetime average WAS very low, and you might be one of those people. But it won't affect your next tournament! At all!
Unless of course, you've been accidently playing with a weighted die for years, that rolls 1-10 far more than 11-20.
I do think that human nature plays into this topic a lot. I could be wrong, of course, and I don't mean this to be a slam on any person here in particular - there can always be rare exceptions.
One specific game comes to mind. I felt like my opponent made a significant mistake, that gave me a very good chance of winning. It was 100 pt, though, so initiative and morale are key, and the games involve a lot of luck. The way *I* remember it, my opponent passed my first big chance to win. I think I had 2 attacks to force morale, but one missed. We were both CE beaters back in the day, so this was quite unlikely. It was near enough 50/50, that I rout him and probably win the game, but he passed. Then I won init, killed his figure, and won the game solidly. After the game, my opponent bemoaned the fact he lost the game. Whoever wins that initiative wins the game, he said.
He was right, at that point in the game, the winner of that init was going to win the game, 80-90% of the time. I think it was even initiative rating, too. But I had more like a 75% chance to win the game, overall, because he had given me a couple free attacks at the end of the round, that could've won it right there. I thought he was way overemphasizing the one roll that didn't go his way, when he hadn't really realized just how many rolls had to go his way for him to win. Obviously he hadn't realized the REAL percentages, or he never would've rushed in and "gambled on initiative" when he made his big mistake the prior round!
To me, I had outplayed him, and was likely to win the game, though it was no guarantee. To him, it was an even game that he lost on the dice.
When you've got a lot of attacks at 85% chance to hit, you've got to realize that you're going to miss! Often a good two times in like 8 attacks! When it's an Aspect of Kord with Aggression on a Helmed Horror with 35 hp left, yeah, it feels like insanely bad luck - but you just won init, and just hit on your last two attacks, didn't you? The chance that ALL four of those rolls would go your way really wasn't that great! (3 attacks at 85% and let's say that init was +7 vs +0. The chance that all four rolls go your way is only 49%.) But everyone thinks that the time when they DO roll the 1, or the 3, it was insanely bad luck.
And yes, over several games, there will be that time when a player's going to miss twice in a row when he's got an 85% chance to hit. Or the opponent will crit twice in a row.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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robbdaman
Underboss
2380 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 7:10 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by GiliusThunderHead
Hi All! I have mixed feelings on this. I agree with Guy 100% in regards to being lucky isn't gonna cut it if you make to many mistakes. I rolled very poorly against Guy in AZ, but due to mistakes made on my part, I can't realistically blame die rolls, although it does make it easier to swallow ;) .
I brought Death Slaad/Blue Slaad x2 to the AZ qualifier, and I can't say that the band had anything to do with my 2 losses. Mistakes were reason number 1, and, oh yeah, those poor rolls against Guy didn't really help either. Meta means very little if you can't play a "major" mistake-free game.
The question will always remain though, how can we be sure that all dice are created equal?
--GTHead
You rolled fine against me Bobby. Or have you forgotten how your Quaggoths ripped apart my monks? [:p]
R~ | |
Champion of the Titan
******************************************************************************************************************************************************
Successful trades with: Tickparasite, Iyceman, Faragdar The Wise's friend, avrivah, Drakkengi, brucemc, Krush, maniacal_mini_monger, hung4treason, Gandy, NarlethDrider, Kunimatyu, etc, etc, blah, blah, blah..... | |
| D&D Miniatures
Guru
guyf
Sergeant
545 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 7:50 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by robbdaman
You rolled fine against me Bobby.
That's awesome. Bobby is *so* going to stick! Hahahaha! [:D] | |
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Guy Fullerton
Official D&D Miniatures Net Rep | |
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Zaukrie
Underboss
2007 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 8:59 PM |
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I would have played Death Slaadi in MN instead of judging. Most nearly every top player had LG or LE bands.
As it is, I'm goint to Niles now for sure, and cannot decide what to do. I'm going to have to get on Vassal. | |
Fastest dropping DCI ranking on record!
Champion of Juiblex | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10493 Posts
United States
| | 05/30/2006 9:26 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Fenris
quote:
Just remember to always use your power for good. Never Ever for convenience or expedience, those lead to the Dark Side.
On the contrary! Anybody who genuinely believes, deep down, that they are unlucky, should go win themselves a million dollars:
http://www.randi.org/research/index.html
Because at heart, if you’re genuinely able to roll consistently below the statistical average, then basically what you’ve got is a paranormal power. And you might as well use it to take Randi’s money! [)]
But, the paranormal powers we're talking about here are bad luck. If anyone here claiming bad die rolling luck were to attend Randi's test, they'd have bad luck and roll well. After all, it wouldn't be bad luck to win the million.
[:)]
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Zaukrie
Underboss
2007 Posts
| | 05/30/2006 9:28 PM |
| | Actually, the wouldn't roll well either. They would roll averagely (nice word, eh?) | |
Fastest dropping DCI ranking on record!
Champion of Juiblex | |
| Master of the
Awesome Sauce
Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 05/31/2006 12:28 AM |
| | 10's and 11's across the board | |
Official Delegate, Wizards of the Coast
Icons Called Shot: Gargantuan Prismatic Dragon
"Rejoice, for bad things are about to happen." | |
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BigGeorge
Sneak
74 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 10:24 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by nycfarmkid
Is the Orog Warlord in the band to allow a greater chance for the pieces to hit high ACs? If so, how often do you find that you are able to take advantage of the Commander Effect? Is it worth his cost?
Sorry for the long long time to answer you NYC, but i gotta keep pimpin that Orog.
I think Orog is one of the BEST LE commanders right now because of the High AC warbands, and he is also god against the CE warbands that are bound to arrive.
He gives your beaters a plus to attack, and if ound in all my games i could easily keep my combat heavy pieces within his commander radius.
Also, In the CE matchup, he is very good as a cleanup hitter, and cleaver. he is good to come up at the end of a round, and deliver a 20 damage hit (enhanced by his CE hate), and then cleave onto someone else, or even deliver a blow to a fodder piece and cleave onto the real target.
I love him. plain and simple. i may even ask him for an autograph. | |
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Janos M.
Underboss
1015 Posts
Hamburg / GErmany
| | 05/31/2006 11:01 AM |
| | If I could go back in time I would play the same warband, but this time try to avoid the crtical mistake which cost me the game against Cesare. | |
My Haves and wants:
http://www.maxminis.com/hw_list.asp?user=Janos_M.
Champion of Elan Psions
Proud Owner of the "Aura of cursed dice" | |
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