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PatEllis15
Commander
4463 Posts
    
 | | 05/31/2006 4:22 PM |
| I've been fairly distracted since Saturday when I went 4-2 and missed the cut to the top 4 to qualify at the Milford, MA Qualifier.
I keep trying to assess if fundamentally, the AM just can't get the job done or if it is more a case of "thems the breaks".
For every Marut Quoatl build in the top 4, there are probably on average 2 more that don't make it to top 4. Is that purely player skill? How do you factor bad luck into the mix?
I played 1/2 my games on my map (3-0), and half off (1-2). My two losses were on broken demongate, and hellspike.
Every warband has scenario's where they just don't do well. Should I be writing off the AM because I happened to get 2 matchups on bad maps? Am I fixating on this because I just don't have as much data? All those Marut/Quoatl builds that didn't make couldn't have been 100% because of player skill.
Alas for me... That said, I think I'm back firmly in the camp that says that the Archmage is truly Tier 1, and he can place, and win in big tournies. Good luck to all who try!
Pat E
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"Games evolve. Otherwise we'd still be pushing rocks around the dirt. What do you think the cavemen said when some dude showed up with sticks?" - Chairman7w | |
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Eliminator53
Sergeant
628 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 4:29 PM |
| | Marut Couatl is a band that is very mistake friendly. Because of this it is easier to pilot to wins. The Archmage is Still a tier one piece, he just needs near perfect play. Don't feel bad about the failure to qualify w/ him though, I could only win one game w/ my flying Marut @ our Qualifier. The data is still pouring in so you can analyze it even more in the future. | |
Champion of Tavern Stripper
Knight of Knights
Squire of Death Giants
Somethin-or-another of Big Arse Swords | |
| Hero of Skirmish
doubtofbuddha
Commander
3371 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 4:33 PM |
| I've had a few conversations about this with Pat Lynch, and we think that making it to the Top 4 is based on the following three things, in decreasing order:
1) Match-ups
2) Player Skill
3) Dice Luck
Especially now, match-ups are king. If you are running your archmage build and get marut builds for most of the day then you are going to have a much easier time then if you ger paired up against CE heavy hitters or gith monks. However, player skill does matter quite a bit. If you don't know your warband or if you just haven't built up the skills needed for the game, then you aren't going to be making the top levels even if you get favorable match-ups all day. Eventually you will make a key mistake and be knocked out of the competition. The least important of the three is dice luck. While it is the most often blamed item for winning or losing a match (everyone is tempted to do it once in a while :P) I think in the end it is less important than the other two. Only if you get poor match-up luck or have a relatively similar level of player skill will dice luck end up mattering to a great degree. There are obvious exceptions (you missing on 3 key attacks and your opponent critting you FIVE DAMN TIMES) but for the most part with good match-ups and solid play skill you can minimize the effect of dice luck. | |
I am not gone. | |
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PatEllis15
Commander
4463 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 4:42 PM |
| I think that is a fair assessment. I know that I'm skilled with my band, so I'll mark that off. That leaves matchups and luck.
For me, they are intertwined. It wasn't the matchup persay, but the fact that I had "bad dice" during map init. So, a neutral matchup turns to bad when I don't get my map. I guess I have to slot that more into the matchup than bad dice.
Matchup of course IS about luck. You have no control over your opponent.
I'll get over it eventually... [)]
Pat E | |
"Games evolve. Otherwise we'd still be pushing rocks around the dirt. What do you think the cavemen said when some dude showed up with sticks?" - Chairman7w | |
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jos1-1
Sergeant
829 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 4:46 PM |
| ya its true i think, i mean it was vs a newbi at my tournment, i was running my "junky" band and he was running a mounted paladin with a few only things, his commander Warpriest of Moradin.
He rolled 7 20's during that match up, 2 on int. i still ended up winning rather easly. (just an example) | |
Poor student looking for minis =D | |
| Hero of Skirmish
doubtofbuddha
Commander
3371 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 4:48 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by PatEllis15
For me, they are intertwined. It wasn't the matchup persay, but the fact that I had "bad dice" during map init. So, a neutral matchup turns to bad when I don't get my map. I guess I have to slot that more into the matchup than bad dice.
Yeah, while Archmage is low variance in most respects, it is high variance in one key thing: Map Initiative. Some warbands are generally good, but just get a slight advantage on their map. Others dominate or fall based entirely on said map. Yours is one of the latter. [:P]
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I am not gone. | |
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trollbill
Warrior
176 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 5:03 PM |
| I can tell you the one reason I haven't really tried to win any tournaments with an Arch Mage build is that such bands usually require a slow kill. The basic strategy is to wack the most powerful creatures with the Swords, then runaway, picking off everything else until the Sword victims finally die. This takes time and tournaments are limited in time. It was for this very reason that I was able to win the one game I had to face an AM with using my Chraal band at GenCon last year.
Now the rules have changed since last year and the 8 figure limit may change this tournament viability, but I still think the Arch Mage is very succeptable to slow play, which is only exacerbated by the fact that the AM requires the kind of precision that often generates slow play.
Of course, since I haven't actually played with an AM band at a tournament, I could be totally off base. What were the tactical factors that lead to your 2 defeats? | |
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Felagund
Sergeant
922 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 5:09 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by doubtofbuddha
1) Match-ups
2) Player Skill
3) Dice Luck
I would definitely agree with that order. Match-ups are huge. I was very lucky to dodge my two worst matchups in the swiss rounds on Sunday (rhane and Drakkengi). I was also convinced that memphisto was a bad matchup for me, though it ended up not being as bad as I thought. | |
Champion of Gnomes | |
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Tried
Sergeant
501 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 5:16 PM |
| If this is truly the case, why don't more folks play Ryld with the AM? If the map is critically important, why not try to insure the win? What the hell are we doing, as AM players?
Why not Play
AM/Ryld/Graycloak x 2/Devis/Ialdabode/Xephx2 on King's Road? | |
Let it be. | |
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kgradert13
Sergeant
909 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 5:27 PM |
| I know why I don't....
That GMA is still too valuable to give up. If you lose map with Ryld, you are really in trouble, as you give up your safety hitter and GMA. If you lose map with the IM, against a neutral matchup, GMA can be the thing that saves your hide. | |
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| D&D Miniatures
Guru
guyf
Sergeant
545 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 5:29 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Tried
If this is truly the case, why don't more folks play Ryld with the AM? If the map is critically important, why not try to insure the win? What the hell are we doing, as AM players?
Why not Play
AM/Ryld/Graycloak x 2/Devis/Ialdabode/Xephx2 on King's Road?
As a player whose never played against an Archmage, I'd have to say that I'd fear the Inspiring Marshal version more. Yeah, the map is important, but the IM is somewhat more intimidating. (Mostly because of the GMA, but also because the IM allows you to bring in another hitter.) | |
-
Guy Fullerton
Official D&D Miniatures Net Rep | |
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Frost-Bitten
Sergeant
677 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 5:30 PM |
| I gotta agree...GMA is pretty powerful and sets up most of my combos...
You can pull off what i call the "Big Show"
Move 8, cast, cast, Move 8
comboing quick cast, movment, and GMA...now there is one VERY tricky pony [:P] | |
PS. This is what the alphabet would look like if Q and R were removed
hardinjmm:
Frost-Bitten, there's more to life (and DDM) than LG!
Frost-Bitten:
More to life than LG... that is like saying there is more to Lucky Charms than the marshmallows!!!!!!!! | |
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Tried
Sergeant
501 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 5:39 PM |
| [cough]
I am well aware of what "tricks" an IM/AM combo can do, having used it to qual in AZ and furthermore, would have qual'd in UTah as well, except for stupid me forgetting to actually move my AM who was parked next to a dying FB on the last turn of the last game of swiss
(move to tile points and win game? why bother. I'd prefer to stand next to FB and die. Yeah. sounds good).
Having said that, and professing myself to be among the most proficient AMers around (what are there, like , 4 of us?) I am now saying -hey man- wait - could it be worth it to try the ryld thing? Maybe, - just maybe - a +8 on initiative could be pretty important. If we couple that with act control, who knows... Not exactly GMA, but we might be able to come close to mimicking it if we play our figs right... I'm not saying its reality, I'm just bringing up an issue that has maybe not been well addressed yet. that's all. | |
Let it be. | |
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kgradert13
Sergeant
909 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 5:55 PM |
| I've considered it a lot, because that map is the key to the Archmage
Everytime though, I come back to "what if I lose map init even with Ryld" and I don't like the results that I'm seeing with that
Luckily, I shouldn't be the person trying to qualify using the AM, I'm glad Tried did it first so I didn't have to attempt it. I think I'd be in trouble in Niles with that band. | |
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robbdaman
Underboss
2380 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 6:03 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by doubtofbuddha
1) Match-ups
2) Player Skill
3) Dice Luck
Of course this order can change with bad luck, stupid moves and just not having a clue how to fight a warband. Some people just do not have their day and others do. Even the top players do some stupid things on occasion and everyone has bad dice luck now and then.
R~ | |
Champion of the Titan
******************************************************************************************************************************************************
Successful trades with: Tickparasite, Iyceman, Faragdar The Wise's friend, avrivah, Drakkengi, brucemc, Krush, maniacal_mini_monger, hung4treason, Gandy, NarlethDrider, Kunimatyu, etc, etc, blah, blah, blah..... | |
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GiliusThunderHead
Sneak
99 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 6:13 PM |
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The only thing I can comment on is your list here:
1) Match-ups
2) Player Skill
3) Dice Luck
Please don't take offense, this is just my way, but this, I'm sorry to say, is ye' old cop-out. The ONLY one of the three that you totally control is player skill. You somewhat control dice luck based on warband decisions, either necessitating more or less "dice luck" in your strat, and you indirectly control matchups by warband decisions(choosing a band that is good against x,y,or z warbands but poor against a and b on map c... well whatever). Here is(ok, so what I think anyway) the way the list should look:
1.)Player Skill
2.)Match-ups/Warband building(they are intricately connected)
3.)Dice Luck
To me, the most important thing is player skill, it is the one thing you have total control of, and encompasses many nuances important to the game.
Regardless, the scales tipped too far in one players favor in any of these three variant catagories result in the difference between winning and losing.
--GiliusThunderHead
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AHA! Aha! Aha!
The light has gone off! The conspiracy has been revealed!!!!
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Bluedevyl
Warrior
262 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 6:14 PM |
| | Though I've never been lucky enough to be at an event with players like Tried and Pat, a friend of mine is a very skilled AM player and has been using it since the beginning... I shudder to think of the idea of what his band would be like if I had to contend with Ryld's initiative bonus on top of the problems that I seem to run into EVERY time I play against him and that blasted Archmage... | |
Champion of Tanis Half-Elven | |
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GiliusThunderHead
Sneak
99 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 6:18 PM |
| Just as an aside, I went 4-2 in the Utah and AZ qualifiers, finishing 5th and 7th. I could have made the top 4... if I had played better...
That's it. Of course there were games where the matchup was bad, of course there were games where it felt like I couldn't roll above 3. But in both tournaments, the chance was still there for me to take a top spot if I played well enough. As you can see, I didn't, LOL!!
But I had a blast and I'm gaining more skill hopefully....
--GiliusThunderHead | |
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robbdaman
Underboss
2380 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 6:22 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by GiliusThunderHead
Just as an aside, I went 4-2 in the Utah and AZ qualifiers, finishing 5th and 7th. I could have made the top 4... if I had played better...
That's it. Of course there were games where the matchup was bad, of course there were games where it felt like I couldn't roll above 3. But in both tournaments, the chance was still there for me to take a top spot if I played well enough. As you can see, I didn't, LOL!!
But I had a blast and I'm gaining more skill hopefully....
--GiliusThunderHead
Don't let Bobby fool you, some of his opponents sucked that day! [:p]
R~ | |
Champion of the Titan
******************************************************************************************************************************************************
Successful trades with: Tickparasite, Iyceman, Faragdar The Wise's friend, avrivah, Drakkengi, brucemc, Krush, maniacal_mini_monger, hung4treason, Gandy, NarlethDrider, Kunimatyu, etc, etc, blah, blah, blah..... | |
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GiliusThunderHead
Sneak
99 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 6:24 PM |
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Fear BOOBY!~ | |
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Pegasus Knight
Sergeant
896 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 6:25 PM |
| | I have to admit, I find it entertaining that you have a 'signature piece' like this, Pat Ellis. You're not just playing Archmage as flavor of the month; it's your definitive style. If the style's genuinely not working, maybe it is time to move on, but being a distinct master of something has its perks; reputation among them. | |
- Irrationally Fanatical Champion of Pegasus-mounted cavalry
- Proud member of Team Low Tier Beasting: I play CG as my main faction!
- Garland, TX 2006 Qualifier Champion
My trading thread: http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=19725 | |
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PatEllis15
Commander
4463 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 6:28 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by trollbill
I can tell you the one reason I haven't really tried to win any tournaments with an Arch Mage build is that such bands usually require a slow kill. The basic strategy is to wack the most powerful creatures with the Swords, then runaway, picking off everything else until the Sword victims finally die. This takes time and tournaments are limited in time. It was for this very reason that I was able to win the one game I had to face an AM with using my Chraal band at GenCon last year.
Now the rules have changed since last year and the 8 figure limit may change this tournament viability, but I still think the Arch Mage is very succeptable to slow play, which is only exacerbated by the fact that the AM requires the kind of precision that often generates slow play.
Of course, since I haven't actually played with an AM band at a tournament, I could be totally off base. What were the tactical factors that lead to your 2 defeats?
Heh... Well, things have changed. First, you can read my report here: http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20819
In one match, I rushed play to make sure the swords did their thing. We played 3 rounds with the swords now done, and that last round is what LOST me the match.
As for the other, not so sure. The one sword that got cast didn't finish it's work, but I think it was more map related than time.
In all my matches but that one since the switch to 8 figs and maps, having enough time has not been the issue.
I'm just feeling grumpy!
Pat E | |
"Games evolve. Otherwise we'd still be pushing rocks around the dirt. What do you think the cavemen said when some dude showed up with sticks?" - Chairman7w | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 8:02 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by PatEllis15
Alas for me... That said, I think I'm back firmly in the camp that says that the Archmage is truly Tier 1, and he can place, and win in big tournies. Good luck to all who try!
Pat E
Archmage is a highly skill intensive piece, and takes even more skill to play against effectively. Unless, of course, you play on a bad map or against a bad matchup.
Can an Archmage band consistantly beat a Gith Monk or 3 FB band piloted by a young, not too experienced player? All the opponent has got to do is rush in and swing, right? Can the Archmage consistantly win after losing map initiative, if the opponent doesn't play a particularly great game?
If the answer to either of those questions is 'No', then I would guess that Archmage isn't tier one.
It's not tier two, per say, either. It's a 'spoiler' band, if you ask me. It's high risk - for high reward. If you do NOT get a bad matchup, then most opponents won't even have a chance, if you play well. Even the best players will have a very, very tough time against the Archmage. Again, unless they happen to get a great matchup or a great map.
One of the questions, when deciding whether or not to run Archmage vs something like what I ran at UT or AZ, is whether or not you think you can distinguish yourself from the crowd when running a 'normal' band. I don't know the actual percentages, but I'm guessing that both Archmage and Marut/Couatl are around 33% at successfully qualifying. In every case, luck played a big role, I'm sure. However, while Archmage is the one that's considered a 'skill' piece, and certainly should never get played except by a skilled enough player to avoid a key mistake, it's the Marut/Couatl and other 'normal' bands that I think are much lower variance. Thus if you believe you will be able to outplay even other skilled players, then I think that a 'normal' tier one band is a better choice than the high matchup and map variance Archmage.
Archmage has great "oops, I win" potential though, it's a crazy powerful band.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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Zoons
Underboss
1067 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 9:32 PM |
| I'd say that player skill is more important than matchup, since understanding the meta and which band to choose will greatly effect the matchup.
In the NE Qualifier, I may have been able to qualify by avoiding bad matchups. But in my third game (a roughly even matchup (band vs. band) in my opinion), I chose to be too agressive with my Kord and then rolled a big fat 1 against my opponent giving him the opportunity to strike back (twice due to snakes swiftness) and MC the Kord with my bodygard not beside him yet. I rolled another 1 on the MC and my 600 lb gorrilla ran like a 45 lb little girl. Welcome to 2-1.
That loss directly led to two worse matchups in rounds 5 and 6 (Pat Lynch followed by Pat Ellis). In both those matchups I lost map initiative and then got rolled by better opponents. My matchups could (maybe should) have been against Couatl/Marut bands instead which my band was built to fare better against.
So, was it...
A) Matchup
B) Skill or
C) Luck
that kept me out of top 4 contention (I finished 3-3 and in 13th place after the All-Pat-Smackdown)?
B) Skill! Playing match 3 correctly would have taken care of the other two. | |
Never teach a pig to sing. It's a waste of time and it annoys the pig.
Champion of the Blink Dog. | |
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PatEllis15
Commander
4463 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 10:13 PM |
| quote:
Can an Archmage band consistantly beat a Gith Monk or 3 FB band piloted by a young, not too experienced player? All the opponent has got to do is rush in and swing, right? Can the Archmage consistantly win after losing map initiative, if the opponent doesn't play a particularly great game?
If the answer to either of those questions is 'No', then I would guess that Archmage isn't tier one.
I think you've cut to the root of the issue!
I certainly felt that AM bands would have a hard time against tri and quad hitter bands at the Grinder last year, but I moved through them. Likewise, I think that on my map, yes I can beat Gith's and triple Frenzy.
BUT, how many of those bands show up? I didn't review the complete warband list from Milford, but I think I heard that 1 Gith band was in attendance, and no triple frenzy bands.
Can I win on someone elses map? Depends on what their band is, and what their map is. Drow Outpost? I'm not so worried. Dragonshrine? I'm pretty damned comfortable with it as well. Hellspike, either of the other maps from Fields of Ruin? Not so much... perhaps just because I haven't had as much of a chance to run on them.
Robert: I encourage you to do some testing with Archmage (if you haven't already), try Dwayne's build, and try mine... I don't see any reason why I couldn't have qualified. I didn't, but just as easily other players could have had single bad matchups from bands that don't make a frequent appearance and spoiled their chances. Let me know if your thoughts change at all after some more testing.
Pat E | |
"Games evolve. Otherwise we'd still be pushing rocks around the dirt. What do you think the cavemen said when some dude showed up with sticks?" - Chairman7w | |
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kgradert13
Sergeant
909 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 10:20 PM |
| HGB's are my biggest fear. Gith Monks are worrysome, but on my map, I have an outside shot.
50/50 shot of a dismissal, and/or EMM/Melf quick cast and hope for failed morale. In theory with an last/first activation you could drop them to 2 giths. Not perfect by any means, but it's a shot, and if it works, in the forest, I like my chances. | |
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Eliminator53
Sergeant
628 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 10:20 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by GiliusThunderHead
Fear BOOBY!~
Don't fear the booby, caress it [:p] | |
Champion of Tavern Stripper
Knight of Knights
Squire of Death Giants
Somethin-or-another of Big Arse Swords | |
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Tried
Sergeant
501 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 10:29 PM |
| Not to answer for Rob, but he tested AM very intensively last year in preparation for quals, then ended up with a different band.
He knows the AM very well. | |
Let it be. | |
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kestrel.ca
Underboss
1687 Posts
| | 05/31/2006 10:31 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by doubtofbuddha
1) Match-ups
2) Player Skill
3) Dice Luck
Although I certainly don't consider myself to be near the top in player skill, I do know that match-ups played a big role in my qualifier. Of the 10 possible bands there, there were only 3 that gave me immediate concern. The other 7, I was confident in at least making it a very close game if not actually winning. Of course, I fought the 3 that were obviously bad matchups (all 3 of which I lost) and only 2 that I was less worried about (both of which I won). I'd really hoped to finish the qualifier with a positive win record (3-2 would have been fine in this case) but had to settle for 2-3. I'd like to think it was due more to poor matchups, than to poor play (although there was certainly enough of that on my side). | |
Completed Trades/Transactions: 94 || Bad Trades: 3 (Chaotic Good x2, MackeyV) | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 06/01/2006 4:50 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by PatEllis15
Robert: I encourage you to do some testing with Archmage (if you haven't already), try Dwayne's build, and try mine... I don't see any reason why I couldn't have qualified. I didn't, but just as easily other players could have had single bad matchups from bands that don't make a frequent appearance and spoiled their chances. Let me know if your thoughts change at all after some more testing.
Pat E
As Dwayne said, I've tested Archmage a lot back for last year's Championships. On the other hand, the King's Road map changes the equation a lot. I haven't tested (or even faced) the Archmage on the King's Road yet. If the Archmage is just ridiculous hard to beat on that map, it could change my opinion some. Likewise if the Archmage is a bit more resilient to bad maps than reports have indicated.
To also answer a second question that was brought up, I would strongly consider Ryld if I took the time to test Archmage out.
I'm not sure if I will take the time or not. There are other interesting ideas to try out, and unfortunately, I probably won't play all that many more tournaments before WotDQ comes out.
Also, I suspect the Championship will be on it's own map... so it won't matter how good the Archmage is on the King's Road. Since I can't play in another qualifier, I don't need to test bands for anything but the Championships.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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PatEllis15
Commander
4463 Posts
| | 06/01/2006 7:59 AM |
| quote:
Also, I suspect the Championship will be on it's own map... so it won't matter how good the Archmage is on the King's Road. Since I can't play in another qualifier, I don't need to test bands for anything but the Championships.
That's absolutely true...
btw, Tone is incredibly hard to control in the written word of a message board, sorry if I came off like a jerk! I certainly think things are different moving from tiles to maps, and 12 to 8 figs.
All I'm really driving at is that with a reasonable expectation, what does anyone hope to do with any band? If 3 people out of 30 showed up with Marut/Quoatl with SW Hate bands, and you had to play them in the first 2 rounds I wouldn't think that you had a bad day personally, rather you had bad matchups, and that it shouldn't reflect badly on your warband.
I hope that others will take up the AM banner and give it a go!
Pat E | |
"Games evolve. Otherwise we'd still be pushing rocks around the dirt. What do you think the cavemen said when some dude showed up with sticks?" - Chairman7w | |
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johnny.quest
Underboss
1386 Posts
| | 06/01/2006 12:50 PM |
| | Pat, I think you've invested sufficient time in a powerful warband (that, incidentally, puts the fear of Goddess into many opponents) that you'd benefit from continuing to refine it. CG will get some love in the next set, methinks, and who know what the possibilities are. | | | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 06/01/2006 6:50 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by PatEllis15
btw, Tone is incredibly hard to control in the written word of a message board, sorry if I came off like a jerk! I certainly think things are different moving from tiles to maps, and 12 to 8 figs.
Heh, not at all! Your words and tone = fine.
quote:
All I'm really driving at is that with a reasonable expectation, what does anyone hope to do with any band? If 3 people out of 30 showed up with Marut/Quoatl with SW Hate bands, and you had to play them in the first 2 rounds I wouldn't think that you had a bad day personally, rather you had bad matchups, and that it shouldn't reflect badly on your warband.
That's true, but... I would expect to have a great chance to beat these bands. Archmage, Death Slaads, maybe 3 Eye of Gruumsh? These were all advanced as Marut/Couatl hate bands (though the band in discussion was titan/Couatl/Bodyguard). There are bands I'd much rather avoid with Marut/Couatl, but there aren't any bands I'd feel like I was at a significant disadvantage going into the game. There are a few that I'd feel at a small disadvantage if Map init also went against me. Not many, and I'd still have a solid chance to win.
I'm not even saying that Archmage is any different. Perhaps Archmage, too, can handle any band, and almost any band even on a bad map, and even against the worst bands on the worst maps have a solid 35%+ chance of surviving - and more like 50%+ if you outplay the opponent by any reasonable margin. However, even your report itself makes me wonder if that's really true. I didn't read it carefully, but it seems like maybe Hellspike vs most ANY band is serious trouble.
The other question is the other end. I might willingly accept a slightly weaker chance of winning the bad matchups, if I get a better chance of winning the good matchups. However, Marut/Couatl is pretty awesome in it's own right against good matchups. Is Archmage any more consistant? I don't know.
As far as reasonable expectation itself... my expectations are probably a lot higher than most people's, heh. I never expect to go undefeated, far from it. However, without looking up the stat exactly, I'd estimate that in the last 8 tournaments with 6+ rounds of swiss, I've only lost twice in the swiss in the same tournament like once. I don't know just how much luck has played into that. Quite a lot, I'm sure. All the same, it has helped build up a high level of expectation in my own mind.
So when I say that running Archmage would scare me, personally, in a qualifier, I mean that, pending more testing, I would think that the chance I lost a couple of games on bad luck / bad matchups would be too high, maybe as high as 40 or 50%. Of course, I'd also be scared to run HGBs, Death Slaads, a CG band, Chraals, or Helmed Horrors, among others. So maybe the only real issue is that A) I haven't testing the Archmage recently and B) it seems to have more bad matchups than one other exact band, which I was comfortable running. Therefore I ran the other band. Had I not found that band, I would've kept looking, and perhaps ended up with HGBs, Death Slaads, Archmage, a CG band, Chraals, or Helmed Horrors.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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YRM_DM
Sergeant
905 Posts
| | 06/02/2006 9:21 AM |
| If winning on King's Road, getting map initiative, and winning key inits early in the game is key to AM domination, is the 30ish point beater making a massive difference?
Would it be worth using both Ryld and AM, and using Ryld as your mid-ish beater?
quote:
Archmage CG 98 Independent Af 14/60 R
Ryld Argith CG/CE 55 4 Unique Ab 24/60 R
Inspiring Marshal CG 29 4 GoL 18/72 R
Devis, Half-Elf Bard CG 6 Unique Ha 20/80 U
Xeph Warrior CG 3 Af 30/60 C
Xeph Warrior CG 3 Af 30/60 C
Xeph Warrior CG 3 Af 30/60 C
Xeph Warrior CG 3 Af 30/60 C
It sounds like getting King's road is potentially worth the extra spent points... dunno.
I also agree that matchups are the #1 luck factor at any tournament.
You can end up with a bye, or lose to the ultimate winner early, then go on to play people that drop out. You can end up facing unfavorable matchups in the hands of good-but-not-great players.
I'm going into a qualifier with a lot less practice than I'd like, just due to my schedule going absolutely crazy over the last few months. Overtime, moving, freelance work for needed $$$ to pay for home improvements and move related expenses, my daughter is 3 (to anyone w a three year old, you know...)
So I'm not going into my qualifier with enough high-level practice to suit my liking.
So I think I am going to have to take a higher varience band and hope for matchup luck to favor me.
Dice luck can be critical in a single game, like on map initiative, or on a key roll here or there. Over the whole tournament, dice luck tends to average out, even if it can be the deciding factor between two even players.
But who you play, and what they run, happens a lot fewer times than rolling the die. Especially early on.
I'm not worried about losing to a guy who wins 1st prize ultimately, but rather worried about losing to an "good" player presenting an unfavorable matchup, and that "good" player is going to finish 5th or 6th.
This kind of crap happens in professional sports all the time though... An NFL team, needing to win to make the playoffs, gets knocked out in a close game vs a non-playoff team.
Other times, a lesser team steps up and plays the game-of-it's-life at a key time.
I have a friend that I test with, and, yes, he makes more mistakes, on average, than I do, but he is capable of playing a perfect or near perfect game from time-to-time (as far as I can tell). If you run into him when he's clicking, he's a tough guy to beat.
The best poker players in the world will still lose, sometimes, to a guy who goes "all in" with a 4 and a 6. | |
Completed good trades with Demagogue, PigSnot, DoB, and Alepulp.
I know you can hear MY thoughts... Meow, Meow, Meow, Meow, Meow, Meow, Meow, Meow... | |
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Tried
Sergeant
501 Posts
| | 06/02/2006 1:26 PM |
| The problem is the Ryld/AM/IM band only has 8 acts.
8 acts is very risky with AM, even with initiative +8. | |
Let it be. | |
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Chad the DragonLordofAiur
Underboss
1085 Posts
Southeast PA
| | 06/02/2006 3:13 PM |
| Let me chime in with my own thoughts. I agree with Doubtofbuddha's list of factors contributing to tournament success.
Now, concerning the AM: I have never piloted the AM but I have played against it three times. I've defeated it soundly all three times. The first two times were because my warband was an overwhelmingly better matchup against the AM. The third time I won on player skill.
I've read the reports and views of the AM players and it seems to me that Trollbill is correct. The one hour timed tournament plays directly against the AM. His two sword spells need time to work. Typically at least three rounds. The AM is typically the only real serious threat in the warband. Since he plays such an important part of your offense any mistake in his use is magnified ten fold. So in order to increase the chance to be successful the AM pilot needs to consider his moves very carefully. This means he must play slower or risk making a mistake. But playing slower hurts his most powerful ability. This almost leads me to believe that it is more of a spoiler band as Dagni said.
It also seems logically that AM/IM/Ryld should be ideal, but as Tried has said there isn't anything else to the warband then.
| |
Member of Team Amish
3rd Place in 2007 Constructed World Championship
My combined DDM Skirmish record of all games ever played in all formats.
486 - 188 - 4 | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 06/02/2006 4:52 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Chad the DragonLordofAiur
It also seems logically that AM/IM/Ryld should be ideal, but as Tried has said there isn't anything else to the warband then.
I wouldn't seriously even consider using the IM as a backup commander. What's the point?
I think that AM/Ryld/Rikka could potentially be better than the versions played by Dwayne or PatE. But since I haven't played any of the three versions, that's speculation.
With commander 8, I think it's entirely acceptable to be at only 8 activations. Better map initiative and better chance to go first in a round in exchange for incomplete activation control (but still likely)? Sure. A *second* solid melee hitter in exchange for a GMA and some ranged damage? Plus, while Ryld is a lot of points, they aren't as squishy points as Graycloaks or IM. He's expensive for a hitter, though, so that's barely an edge.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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Chad the DragonLordofAiur
Underboss
1085 Posts
Southeast PA
| | 06/02/2006 5:03 PM |
| @Dagni
The point of including the IM is solely for the GMA which is very powerful with the AM as I'm sure you are aware. Now whether or not you need to spend 29 points to get one GMA is another story. I think we are all in agreement that just spending 29 on a GMA is probably too expensive. So, is it better to go with Ryld for the increased chance of map and init control or is the IM better for the inclusion of a GMA and fewer points spent on a commander? | |
Member of Team Amish
3rd Place in 2007 Constructed World Championship
My combined DDM Skirmish record of all games ever played in all formats.
486 - 188 - 4 | |
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robbdaman
Underboss
2380 Posts
| | 06/02/2006 5:03 PM |
| The Ryld version would be better as long as you do win your map. If not the IM is necessary for escapes or double sword drop moves. It's a toss up to use one of the other. You take chances either way.
R~ | |
Champion of the Titan
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kgradert13
Sergeant
909 Posts
| | 06/02/2006 5:14 PM |
| Even on King's Road, the IM is invaluable for escapes
Maybe after the qualifier I'll try it out, but i need to practice some Slaadi for the qualifier before I even think about trying out that Archmage build. | |
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