jgsugden
Commander
4320 Posts
    
Walnut Creek, CA
 | | 06/05/2006 1:58 PM |
| One problem with the huge sets is that they have a huge price. Running a sealed event is a very pricey proposition. Accordingly, people don't want to do too many of them... which is a shame, because limited events are a lot of fun.
Normally, this cost problem can be overcome by using a generator program to represent the pulls you might get from a case. However, these programs tend to fail in at least one respect - they tend to ignore the interdependency between boosters in the same case. When you pull a rare from a given booster, there is a reduced chance that the same rare will be in another booster in the same case. Sometimes, this chance is 0%, while the chance changes between cases in other sets due to the method of the seeding of the case.
Accordingly, I decided to come up with a solution that would allow people toi run a large number of limited events without buying boosters or relying upon generators that only do 90% of the job.
Starting with WotDQ, I plan to assemble an Excel spreadsheet that will contain the pulls reported from 50+ cases of boosters for that set. Each Set's spreadsheet will have 50+ sheets - 1 for each case for which I have data. Each of those sheets will show the figures pulled from the case on a booster by booster basis.
This will allow people to refer to lists to figure out what some realistic pulls might have been.
Here is an example of how a sheet will appear for War of the Dragon Queen:
Slot Booster 1 Booster 2 Booster 3...<br>Huge<br>Rare<br>Uncommon 1<br>Uncommon 2<br>Common Group 1 1<br>Common Group 1 2<br>Common Group 2 1<br>Common Group 2 2<br>Box Art (Dracolich, Aspect, Nightmare) As a side note, the common slots in WotDQ are broken down into two different groups of 7 figures. Each group will have 2 figures from each of the groups. We're not sure (yet) if it will be possible to pull 2 of the same common in a single booster, although I suspect that it will happen once in every 25 boosters or so - or even twice in the same booster (once in a blue moon).
How can you help?
If you're buying a case of WotDQ, you can help by providing me with data. All you need to do is:
1.) Email me anytime before you get your case to tell me you'd like to help,
2.) Then, (when WotDQ is about to hit the shelves) I'll email you a handy dandy Excel spreadsheet to fill out,
3.) Then, you'll just need to fill in the data from your pulls (it is easy to do and accurate when you do it as you pull them - if you don't know which figures go in which slots, you can just put them down in any order and I'll fix it), and
4.) Then, email the spreadsheet back to me.
I'll do the rest. Once I have enough data, I'll find someplace to host the spreadsheets. I'll keepthem around so that people can 'generate' limited pulls for as long as they have the figures to use. There should be enough records that even if you're forced to reuse sheets eventually, there will be so many that people will be unlikely to see the same generated boosters pop up twice, and would likely not realize it if it did happen.
Any questions? | |
Champion of Meepo _*_ Myztek on the Wizards Boards. _*_ (2206 DDM on 03/06/06)
Please note: The use of the  indicates an attempt at humor ... often a bad attempt.
BAD EBAY SELLERS LIST (CLICK HERE): AVOID AT ALL COSTS
| |
|
Venport
Sergeant
739 Posts
| | 06/05/2006 2:37 PM |
| | I'm in i have 3 cases coming... it wont be as good an zankos numbers but who can match that buying power | |
Sacramento DDM http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=16854
New world Project http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20745
| |
|
Pegasus Knight
Sergeant
896 Posts
| | 06/05/2006 3:37 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Venport
but who can match that buying power
Bob Boze Bell can.
Anyway, I won't be buying a case, but I will be picking up two boosters; will my data still be welcome? Or are you wanting data for only complete cases for purposes of the 'interedependency' you mentioned? | |
- Irrationally Fanatical Champion of Pegasus-mounted cavalry
- Proud member of Team Low Tier Beasting: I play CG as my main faction!
- Garland, TX 2006 Qualifier Champion
My trading thread: http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=19725 | |
|
jgsugden
Commander
4320 Posts
Walnut Creek, CA
| | 06/05/2006 3:41 PM |
| | I'm looking for case info only, as it is the interaction between cases that will make this system dfferent from generators. | |
Champion of Meepo _*_ Myztek on the Wizards Boards. _*_ (2206 DDM on 03/06/06)
Please note: The use of the indicates an attempt at humor ... often a bad attempt.
BAD EBAY SELLERS LIST (CLICK HERE): AVOID AT ALL COSTS
| |
|
Knight of the
Round Table
Thenameless
Warlord
12507 Posts
The Fortress of Solitude
| | 06/06/2006 4:29 PM |
| | Nice idea. We had a guy who used to come to DDM tournaments regularly, but quit and went back to Magic because he enjoyed the sealed events more than the constructed ones. And Magic apparently has them more often and/or they are more affordable. | |
Over 270 successful online DDM trades. | |
|
Zippy
Underboss
1993 Posts
Whitewater, WI
| | 06/06/2006 7:20 PM |
| | Is someone interested in doing a booster generator with this "depletion of case" factor built in? It adds more constraints and logic coding but would be really nice. | |
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Reference Thread, H/W List, Champion of the Catoblepas | |
|
doranur
Warrior
180 Posts
| | 06/06/2006 8:12 PM |
| john,
if you are interested in making up a form to easily record the data, i will be more than happy to record my results for you. | |
-Doranur
join the revolution! down with round/turn fascism! viva la resistance! | |
|
jgsugden
Commander
4320 Posts
Walnut Creek, CA
| | 06/06/2006 8:28 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Zippy
Is someone interested in doing a booster generator with this "depletion of case" factor built in? It adds more constraints and logic coding but would be really nice.
The problem with designing a generator to factor in the depletion of case factors is that we do not know the fine details of the process. WotC has not told us exactly how the cases are seeded. We've taken educated guesses, but we find surprises all the time, such as seeing TRIPLES in WotDQ case rares... | |
Champion of Meepo _*_ Myztek on the Wizards Boards. _*_ (2206 DDM on 03/06/06)
Please note: The use of the indicates an attempt at humor ... often a bad attempt.
BAD EBAY SELLERS LIST (CLICK HERE): AVOID AT ALL COSTS
| |
|
Feathers
Underboss
1140 Posts
| | 06/06/2006 10:35 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by jgsugden
quote:
Originally posted by Zippy
Is someone interested in doing a booster generator with this "depletion of case" factor built in? It adds more constraints and logic coding but would be really nice.
The problem with designing a generator to factor in the depletion of case factors is that we do not know the fine details of the process. WotC has not told us exactly how the cases are seeded. We've taken educated guesses, but we find surprises all the time, such as seeing TRIPLES in WotDQ case rares...
WotDQ or WD? Do you have some cases ahead of time you aren't telling us about? | |
Champion of Neogi
Completed Trades/Transactions: sttmxn, Krush, jgsugden, Ayrychx2, Venport, Tysac
| |
|
lynchpt
Sergeant
930 Posts
| | 06/06/2006 11:10 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Zippy
Is someone interested in doing a booster generator with this "depletion of case" factor built in? It adds more constraints and logic coding but would be really nice.
The Collectible Package Generator that I wrote (available on Merric's site) does keep track of case depletion (I just call it accurately generating a case) for those sets (and only those sets) where the distribution was theoretically perfect. These sets include Angelfire, Underdak, but not Wardrums, for example.
Now, if someone can model the true case distribution in a determinate way for WotDQ, I will do my best to implement a case generation option for this set in the CPG. If no one can produce the model, then neither I, nor anyone else, can accurately generate cases - it's back to strictly boosters.
I look forward to the information in this thread helping me implement generation of WotDQ.
Pat Lynch | |
Dreamblade Rules Advisor | |
|
Master of the
Awesome Sauce
Teflon Jeff
Warlord
7908 Posts
Sector 2814
| | 06/07/2006 12:36 AM |
| | I'll help, I've got 6 planned. | |
Official Delegate, Wizards of the Coast
Icons Called Shot: Gargantuan Prismatic Dragon
"Rejoice, for bad things are about to happen." | |
|
Toxic_Rat
Sergeant
745 Posts
Lehi, Utah, USA
| | 06/07/2006 1:32 AM |
| | Sign me up. I'll be in for a couple of cases. | |
Any time you try to make something idiot-proof, someone always goes out and invents a better idiot.
Champion of Siege Equipment | |
|
BakS
Sneak
50 Posts
| | 06/07/2006 7:13 AM |
| | You can sign me up too. I'll be in for a two cases. But it will be about July, 9 | |
My Have/want list
http://www.maxminis.com/hw_list.asp?user=BakS | |
|
Aries
Warrior
284 Posts
| | 06/07/2006 7:56 AM |
| | I'm expecting for so count me in. | |
Positive trades: Tactician, Talistran, Chad the DragonLordofAiur x2,
Favorite_1, Blackblood, mykbuckley, cooter926, Thorgrin, James the True
Ebay ID Awclearwater | |
|
Aries
Warrior
284 Posts
| | 06/07/2006 7:58 AM |
| | that's four not for....[)] | |
Positive trades: Tactician, Talistran, Chad the DragonLordofAiur x2,
Favorite_1, Blackblood, mykbuckley, cooter926, Thorgrin, James the True
Ebay ID Awclearwater | |
|
Janos M.
Underboss
1015 Posts
Hamburg / GErmany
| | 06/07/2006 8:32 AM |
| | I sent you an e-Mail | |
My Haves and wants:
http://www.maxminis.com/hw_list.asp?user=Janos_M.
Champion of Elan Psions
Proud Owner of the "Aura of cursed dice" | |
|
jgsugden
Commander
4320 Posts
Walnut Creek, CA
| | 06/07/2006 12:38 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Feathers
quote:
Originally posted by jgsugden
... We've taken educated guesses, but we find surprises all the time, such as seeing TRIPLES in WotDQ case rares...
WotDQ or WD? Do you have some cases ahead of time you aren't telling us about?
WD. My bad.
Thanks for all the help guys. I'll be sending out the spreadsheet towards the end of July - probably after the prerelease so that I can include the groupings for commons and uncommons with the spreadsheet. | |
Champion of Meepo _*_ Myztek on the Wizards Boards. _*_ (2206 DDM on 03/06/06)
Please note: The use of the indicates an attempt at humor ... often a bad attempt.
BAD EBAY SELLERS LIST (CLICK HERE): AVOID AT ALL COSTS
| |
|
cooter926
Sneak
165 Posts
| | 06/07/2006 2:29 PM |
| I'm in...i should be gettin 2, and my friends should be gettin a couple apiece, so should be good for 6 cases worth of #s. WD was odd, the only case i've bought so far had 4 combat medics and no blood ghosts. the commons weren't even perfect either, i think i got 4 of two of the commons and only 1 of one other...it was defintely odd.
Do you care to know the case id# or date produced info? I'm guessin not as we wouldn't know if there were runs at what date, but...in case you want it...
| |
Succesfull trades: Lowix (wotc), Kaya Kenobi, Halstan (wotc), Spikegif x 2, minatoman38, sidious515 (wotc)
Pending: | |
|
jgsugden
Commander
4320 Posts
Walnut Creek, CA
| | 06/07/2006 2:47 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by cooter926
...Do you care to know the case id# or date produced info? I'm guessin not as we wouldn't know if there were runs at what date, but...in case you want it...
I don't think that information will be of use to anyone using the data I'm collecting, so I didn't plan to include it. However, if people want me to colelct it as well, I can include it on the spreadsheets. | |
Champion of Meepo _*_ Myztek on the Wizards Boards. _*_ (2206 DDM on 03/06/06)
Please note: The use of the indicates an attempt at humor ... often a bad attempt.
BAD EBAY SELLERS LIST (CLICK HERE): AVOID AT ALL COSTS
| |
|
SneakyJoeKDB
Sergeant
593 Posts
Utah
| | 06/08/2006 2:05 PM |
| | Sign me up I just bought 5 cases. | |
"Like a thief in the Night"
| |
|
demitroy
Skirmisher
39 Posts
| | 06/08/2006 3:58 PM |
| | Count me in. I have a couple cases on the way as well. | |
| |
|
jgsugden
Commander
4320 Posts
Walnut Creek, CA
| | 07/03/2006 1:10 PM |
| | The spreadsheet has been sent to those that posted here or sent me an email... if you'd also like to help out, send me an email... | |
Champion of Meepo _*_ Myztek on the Wizards Boards. _*_ (2206 DDM on 03/06/06)
Please note: The use of the indicates an attempt at humor ... often a bad attempt.
BAD EBAY SELLERS LIST (CLICK HERE): AVOID AT ALL COSTS
| |
|
jgsugden
Commander
4320 Posts
Walnut Creek, CA
| | 07/19/2006 1:02 PM |
| | Status update: Still collecting data. I've been very busy at work, so I do not know when I'll get a chance to wrap things up. We're approaching data for 40 cases, so if you have your data and wish tyo submit it, just let me know. | |
Champion of Meepo _*_ Myztek on the Wizards Boards. _*_ (2206 DDM on 03/06/06)
Please note: The use of the indicates an attempt at humor ... often a bad attempt.
BAD EBAY SELLERS LIST (CLICK HERE): AVOID AT ALL COSTS
| |
|