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rhane
Underboss
1412 Posts
    
 | | 06/22/2005 1:35 PM |
| I didn't read all the responses, so apologies if this has been covered.
The other thing tends to happen is people succumb to the Clustering Illusion (Texas Sharpshooter Falacy). In effect, people tend to remember the interesting coincidences that have a big impact, and forget the other statistically friendly but uninspiring results.
People remember the critical successes and critical failures, especially when it comes to their characters. We remember when we roll a critical hit to kill the bad guy just when all hope seemed lost. We don't remember all of the other non-dramatic hits and misses during the gaming session or campaign. We remember the saving throw of 1 that causes our character to die. We forget the vast number of rolls (both successful and failed) that had lesser impact.
We also remember the clusters...if you have a 50-50 chance to hit something, the odds are just as likely that you'll go miss-hit-miss-hit-miss-hit as you are to go miss-miss-miss-hit-hit-hit, however, the second has a much more lasting impact. "I nailed him three times in a row and brought him down!" | |
Rhane
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rhane
Underboss
1412 Posts
| | 06/22/2005 1:40 PM |
| Oops...got cut off...
Case in point, back in my high school days, I played hundreds of games of axis and allies. All were fun and unique. However, the only single event that really stands out is the time that Germany attacked Russia on turn 1 with ground forces, 5 Fighters, and a Bomber. The defender rolled for his AA guns (which need a 1 to hit), and rolled 5 1's for the fighters and another 1 for the bomber.
Those things stick...from then on, regardless of the game, any time the Russian player rolled well, we said "Man, you're always lucky!"...any time the German player rolled poorly, we commente "wow, you're always cursed". | |
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glauron
Underboss
1379 Posts
Sydney, Australia
| | 06/22/2005 9:40 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by LCS
quote:
Originally posted by glauron
Now assuming we spend all our life rolling dice, what is the probability that we will go to heaven?
Well since the statistical average of the result of rolling a die is 0.5 higher than half the face value of the die, everyone should go to heaven (assuming their relegion of choice doesn't frown upon the rolling of dice).
Hehe. Too many clever people on these forums.
I wish I was as confident of going to heaven. I wonder if a belief in such a place is a pre-requisite? If yes, excellent, because I sure as hell don't believe in the other place, so I won't be going there either. [}:)] | |
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Fearfrost
Sergeant
518 Posts
| | 06/22/2005 9:53 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Captain Harlock
quote:
Originally posted by Fearfrost
quote:
Originally posted by Testament
So it IS possible to throw dice in such a way that a certain result will come up? Cool, I wasn't sure whether that was just a myth or not.
Well according to a recient History channel show it is done by some craps players. However they say it takes a very long time to get the throw right to reduce the spin of the dice. I doubt that if someone actually rolled a D20 they would be able to duplicate the technique due to the D20's nearly round shape. But who knows with practice maybe.
Oh, you do not remember the original dice that TSR used to provide with their games. They came already rounded. (Not to mention with no differentiation between the 1-10 and 11-20.)
Dan Cooper
I remember the dice from the old red box sooner or later they all were round because the corners disintergrated.[:)] | |
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WakeXX
Warlord
10147 Posts
Edinboro PA
| | 06/23/2005 12:57 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Wayne
quote:
Originally posted by WakeXX
so...what is the statistical probability of rolling 6 3's on d20 in a row![B)]
After you've done it? 100%.
Before you've done it, on the next six rolls? About 1 in 64,000,000 or .0000015625 percent.
1 in 64,000,000!Man this actually happened to me in a recent gaming session... | | | |
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Diomedes
Commander
3173 Posts
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| 06/23/2005 9:34 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by WakeXX
quote:
Originally posted by Wayne
quote:
Originally posted by WakeXX
so...what is the statistical probability of rolling 6 3's on d20 in a row![B)]
After you've done it? 100%.
Before you've done it, on the next six rolls? About 1 in 64,000,000 or .0000015625 percent.
1 in 64,000,000!Man this actually happened to me in a recent gaming session...
But the problem here is that the probabilty of rolling /any/ six numbers is 1 in 64,000,000.
-Diomedes
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Frederyck
Sneak
139 Posts
Uppsala, Sweden
| | 06/24/2005 2:42 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Diomedes
But the problem here is that the probabilty of rolling /any/ six numbers is 1 in 64,000,000.
If you specify in advance which numbers you are to roll, yes. Otherwise it is pretty much 100%...
[:)]
To the point though - it is equally unlikely to roll Β, 10, 3, 19, 15, 3] in that order, as it is to roll ⎠, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20]. | |
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Corim Danex
Warlord
6802 Posts
West Valley City, Utah
| | 06/24/2005 3:05 AM |
| | Specifying in advance doesn't change any odds. The odds are constant. | |
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Wayne
Underboss
1371 Posts
| | 06/24/2005 6:13 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Corim Danex
Specifying in advance doesn't change any odds. The odds are constant.
I'm not sure exactly what you mean here. Asking "what are the odds of [whatever]" without specifying the particulars pertaining to the [whatever] is meaningless.
What is the probability of rolling four '6's in a row on a d6? Well, if you give me a few hours, the probability approaches 100%. But the probability of doing that on the next four rolls is substantially lower. (About 0.078%, or 1 in 1296, to be exact.) | |
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rhane
Underboss
1412 Posts
| | 06/24/2005 10:56 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Corim Danex
Specifying in advance doesn't change any odds. The odds are constant.
I think what Frederyck was saying is that once the event has happened, its meaningless to talk about the odds or chances of it happening. It happened, so in effect the chances are 100%.
It's predicting future rolls that discussing odds makes sense. The further you constrain the conditions - I'm gonna roll a 20 on the next roll vs. I'm gonna roll a 20 some time tonight - the further you limit the odds. | |
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Frederyck
Sneak
139 Posts
Uppsala, Sweden
| | 06/24/2005 12:14 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Wayne
I'm not sure exactly what you mean here. Asking "what are the odds of [whatever]" without specifying the particulars pertaining to the [whatever] is meaningless.
Exactly. | |
If voting could really change things, it would be illegal. | |
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smilinIrish
Sergeant
911 Posts
| | 06/24/2005 2:48 PM |
| | I don't know why you are talking about dice being lucky or unlucky. It's the people who are unlucky. [:D] People who rpg and skirmish with me will agree that I'm generally unlucky with dice. I rarely have Great luck, and it's about 60% bad luck, and 40% average luck. wich makes it .0004582% likely that I will be looking at the dice when they roll a one on a Thursday when it is raining and the moon is in it's sixth phase after I ate Mexican food and have gas. Really, I'm serious. [:p] | |
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smilinIrish
Sergeant
911 Posts
| | 06/24/2005 2:50 PM |
| | Cool, I started page three. With all the maxminis users, what is the odds they I, in particular, will start page three instead of, say, Iksander? Surely one of you guys can compute that. [:D] | |
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galneweinhaw
Commander
2646 Posts
| | 06/24/2005 3:18 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by smilinIrish
Cool, I started page three. With all the maxminis users, what is the odds they I, in particular, will start page three instead of, say, Iksander? Surely one of you guys can compute that. [:D]
odds are 100% [)] | |
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Fry
Underboss
1724 Posts
| | 06/24/2005 3:23 PM |
| | Depends on how much of a post-spammer you are, and what your current board settings are. [:D] | |
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Wynd of the North
Warrior
310 Posts
| | 06/24/2005 10:21 PM |
| | What you seem to be ignoring is that unlike poker a die role is a singular event. Every single time you roll a die it is unrelated to the last time you rolled it. It is as likely to roll a die 4000 times and get all 20's as it is to get any other number combination. Basically, when it comes to rolling dice "probability" is just as much of an illusion as "luck". To use your logic you would lose the 100,000 bet as often as you won if you did it over a long period of time. | |
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Wayne
Underboss
1371 Posts
| | 06/25/2005 9:19 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Wynd of the North
What you seem to be ignoring is that unlike poker a die role is a singular event.
Every turn of the card in poker is a single event. What's your point?
quote:
Every single time you roll a die it is unrelated to the last time you rolled it. It is as likely to roll a die 4000 times and get all 20's as it is to get any other number combination.
True ... as long as you state which numbers you're trying to roll. As you did with the '20's.
quote:
Basically, when it comes to rolling dice "probability" is just as much of an illusion as "luck".
This is simply incorrect. You're doing a great job illustrating the point of the thread, however.
quote:
To use your logic you would lose the 100,000 bet as often as you won if you did it over a long period of time.
Then don't be afraid ... let's make the bet. | |
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Fenris
Sergeant
974 Posts
| | 06/25/2005 9:56 AM |
| Wayne, with a game like poker, don't you feel that winning is more a function of how well you read the other players, than a function of understanding probability? Sure, it helps to know how likely it is that you'll draw that card that turns your two pair into a full house, but it's more helpful to know that every time that guy with the beard starts figeting with his collar, he's bluffing.
You can't really bluff in DDM. You can lay out traps and gambits, but it's more like chess than poker, because all the information is right there on the board for your opponent to see (or not see). It's like playing poker with all the cards face-up.
However, I do agree that the player who understands probability has a distinct advantage in DDM. For example, say you have an Orc Champ (+13) attacking a Drow Sergeant (AC 19, conceal 6). What percentage of the time does the Champ hit the Sarge? Many players will greatly overestimate the chance. | |
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Fry
Underboss
1724 Posts
| | 06/25/2005 10:18 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Fenris
However, I do agree that the player who understands probability has a distinct advantage in DDM. For example, say you have an Orc Champ (+13) attacking a Drow Sergeant (AC 19, conceal 6). What percentage of the time does the Champ hit the Sarge? Many players will greatly overestimate the chance.
For those of you playing along at home, the Champ has an astonishing 43.75% chance of whiffing that first attack at +13. | |
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Wayne
Underboss
1371 Posts
| | 06/25/2005 10:42 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Fenris
Wayne, with a game like poker, don't you feel that winning is more a function of how well you read the other players, than a function of understanding probability?
How much that's the case depends on what kind of poker and what limits you play.
At low- to mid-limits (anywhere from $6-$12 to $20-$40) people-reading, hand-reading, and bluffing are tiny parts of the game. At this level, which is where I make my money, your opponents are often so bad that they don't know the strength of their hand, making it impossible for you to read them on it. At this level, mathematics is king.
By contrast, at mid- to high-stakes no-limit hold'em, say $10-$10-$20, $3000 buy-in and up, skills other than math start to become more important. At the highest levels of no-limit poker, math might be as little as 50 or 60 percent of the skills you'll use on a given hand.
quote:
Sure, it helps to know how likely it is that you'll draw that card that turns your two pair into a full house, but it's more helpful to know that every time that guy with the beard starts figeting with his collar, he's bluffing.
The importance of tells has been vastly overrated by Hollywood. They happen, but they are never reliable enough to be the sole basis of a decision. A more typical use of a tell is to push you one way or the other when a decision hinges somewhere around 50% correct either way.
quote:
all the information is right there on the board for your opponent to see (or not see). It's like playing poker with all the cards face-up.
No, it's not. The correct analogy to playing poker with all the cards face up would be if every d20 roll in a DDM match were rolled in advance and written down for the players.
quote:
However, I do agree that the player who understands probability has a distinct advantage in DDM. For example, say you have an Orc Champ (+13) attacking a Drow Sergeant (AC 19, conceal 6). What percentage of the time does the Champ hit the Sarge? Many players will greatly overestimate the chance.
Your attack roll will succeed 75% of the time, and your conceal check will subsequently succeed 75% of the time. (I'm assuming Conceal 6 means you have to roll a 6+ to confirm the hit.) The probability of both occurring is 0.75 * 0.75 or 0.5625 ... the Orc Champ will slap the Drow Sergeant around about 56% of the time. Against the Orc Champ, the Drow's concealment is worth the same as +4 to AC. (This is what's interesting about the Conceal mechanic (and concealment in D&D) ... it's more valuable to those with lower ACs, and against those with higher attack bonuses.) | |
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kyrin
Commander
3168 Posts
| | 06/25/2005 3:38 PM |
| I think that part of the confusion between probability and luck is that there are some people who have (or have developed) an *intuitive* sense of actuary, but may have no *explicit* knowledge of it. It's like what I say to my Physics students: the professional baseball player is not *explicitly* doing the projectile motion calculations -- he just *knows* (because of practice and perhaps some innate intutive ability) where the fly ball is going to end up, and about how long it will take to get there.
Similarly, experienced gamblers may not know a lick about actuarial statistics in terms of explicit knowledge ("There's a 78.3% chance I'll be able to complete this straight.") but they have (or have developed) a sense of how things will most likely fall out, and can make decisions accordingly. This creates the *illusion* that some people are "lucky." But it is an illusion. Probablility is the reality, luck is the illusion.
When you consider the thousands of dice that are rolled in every hour of gaming nights all over the world, four ones in a row isn't really that unusual.
When random chance produces results that please us and we notice it, we call it "good luck."
When random chance produces results that do not favor us and we notice it, we call it "bad luck."
Most of the time, we call it life.
Now having said that, scientific, empirical evidence does suggest that it is possible for dice to hate someone. Mine do, and they're going to prove it in our skirmish session tomorrow. [:D]
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johnny.quest
Underboss
1357 Posts
| | 06/26/2005 4:10 PM |
| | On a related note, I'm not sure what I think of the idea that some people have innate abilities. I think it's possible that someone might have some innate facility for math, but I think that a person needs the right environment and a goodly amount of effort in order to turn that ability into something valuable. For example, I've asked a few different people about resources for learning about math and probability in relation to game theory. Many people respond with the notion that they "just get it" or something like that, and often they'll follow with a phrase like, "I haven't taken math since I took calculus in high school." Wayne, I'm not picking on you; I've gotten this response from several people [:)] Well, I never took calculus in high school, and I never understood the connection between math and things that I'm passionate about (e.g. games and music) until after school. My point is that maybe some folks don't realize how they're experiences -- early though they may be -- have shaped their innate qualities. Ultimately, I have to believe that it's more than just innate ability, that things can be shared, taught, and learned. This whole concept of ability is difficult to prove, and I find that it gets in the way more than it helps. | | | |
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warty_nosed_goblin
Underboss
1384 Posts
| | 06/26/2005 4:43 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by johnny.quest
On a related note, I'm not sure what I think of the idea that some people have innate abilities. I think it's possible that someone might have some innate facility for math, but I think that a person needs the right environment and a goodly amount of effort in order to turn that ability into something valuable. For example, I've asked a few different people about resources for learning about math and probability in relation to game theory. Many people respond with the notion that they "just get it" or something like that, and often they'll follow with a phrase like, "I haven't taken math since I took calculus in high school." Wayne, I'm not picking on you; I've gotten this response from several people [:)] Well, I never took calculus in high school, and I never understood the connection between math and things that I'm passionate about (e.g. games and music) until after school. My point is that maybe some folks don't realize how they're experiences -- early though they may be -- have shaped their innate qualities. Ultimately, I have to believe that it's more than just innate ability, that things can be shared, taught, and learned. This whole concept of ability is difficult to prove, and I find that it gets in the way more than it helps.
I agree with a lot of what you are saying, that it does take a lot of work to do something, even if you are good at it. I just got an A in Linear Algebra (a collage 200-level math course), and I'm eighteen. I'm (IMHO) pretty good at math, but it is still a lot of work. However, I think innate talent does play a roll as well, I could practice Chess 'til the end of time (whithout lunch or bathroom breaks even) and I probably couldn't beat a chess grandmaster.
That said, I also think that at least most of the (extremely small0 group of people that I've played games involving luck and probability understand it, it's just more fun to go (I'm gonna roll a 1, and the black dragon's BW is gonna turn me into a giant booger) then to say (I only have a 25% chance of making the save, which, seeing as the dragon's BW does 6d6 (or whatever) damage, and I only have 15 HP has a very good chance of either killing or dropping me"
Plus, I like my rep as the person who once rolled 4 crits in one game of DDM, two of them back to back from the same creature, and that my opponant was the one who rolled four 1's[:D] | |
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While he is clearly insane, he does have a point. | |
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Wynd of the North
Warrior
310 Posts
| | 07/12/2005 4:30 PM |
| [/quote]
Hehe. Too many clever people on these forums.
I wish I was as confident of going to heaven. I wonder if a belief in such a place is a pre-requisite? If yes, excellent, because I
Well since the statistical average of the result of rolling a die is 0.5 higher than half the face value of the die, everyone should go to heaven (assuming their relegion of choice doesn't frown upon the rolling of dice).
[/quote]
Hehe. Too many clever people on these forums.
I wish I was as confident of going to heaven. I wonder if a belief in such a place is a pre-requisite? If yes, excellent, because I sure as hell don't believe in the other place, so I won't be going there either. [}:)]
[/quote]
Now that is funny. You just said that the fact that you
do not believe in hell is as sure as hell.
I am pretty sure you contradicted yourself there | |
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psistef
Underboss
1572 Posts
| | 07/13/2005 9:08 AM |
| Ok, I got one, what are the odds that I started playing DDM so I could show off my bitchin' maths skills?
*ahem*
Gamers understand luck and unluck, as well as their illusionary nature, but they keep the illusion going because it is fun.
I mean come on, everybody has at least some rudimentary understanding that their Orc Warrior has little chance of hitting that PDK, they may not have a post full of numbers to back it up, but they do. I'm sure.
I studied probability in school, but I didn't care then, nor now. Not why I play.
At the end of the day, before I roll any attack/save/whatever, if I need to roll less than 11, I feel good, if more, bad.
Sorry.
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Captain Harlock
Sergeant
450 Posts
| | 07/13/2005 4:23 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by psistef
Ok, I got one, what are the odds that I started playing DDM so I could show off my bitchin' maths skills?
*ahem*
Gamers understand luck and unluck, as well as their illusionary nature, but they keep the illusion going because it is fun.
I mean come on, everybody has at least some rudimentary understanding that their Orc Warrior has little chance of hitting that PDK, they may not have a post full of numbers to back it up, but they do. I'm sure.
And besides, what is the fun in saying "Oh, it is just the nature of probability?" Not blaming things on bad luck or wallowing in good luck takes away from the fun of the game.
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Wayne
Underboss
1371 Posts
| | 07/14/2005 1:24 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Captain Harlock
And besides, what is the fun in saying "Oh, it is just the nature of probability?" Not blaming things on bad luck or wallowing in good luck takes away from the fun of the game.
There's nothing about understanding luck that keeps anyone from blaming bad luck when it happens. That's the entire point, in fact: luck is real, but only in hindsight. It doesn't extend into the future.
In the few skirmish games I've played, I've been consistently unlucky, and believe me, I've whined about it. (Sorry, LCS!) Bad luck is real, and I've had it. The difference is that someone who doesn't understand luck will say, "I'm just unlucky," whereas I say, "I've been unlucky." | |
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Diomedes
Commander
3173 Posts
| | 07/15/2005 4:25 PM |
| quote:
In the few skirmish games I've played, I've been consistently unlucky, and believe me, I've whined about it. (Sorry, LCS!) Bad luck is real, and I've had it. The difference is that someone who doesn't understand luck will say, "I'm just unlucky," whereas I say, "I've been unlucky."
Here's the problem that I have with this argument. I already know that this argument is /not/ going to go over well, but I'll make it anyhow.
I'm going to start by doing something that I hate when other people do, but none-the-less, I'm going to do, quote a dictionary (in this case, Merriam-Webster online http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=luck&x=0&y=0)
Main Entry: 1 luck
Pronunciation: 'l&k
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English lucke, from Middle Dutch luc; akin to Middle High German gelücke luck
1 a : a force that brings good fortune or adversity b : the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual
Alrighty, so when we talk about luck, what people typically are doing is imposing an explanation on events. In the same way that after a tragedy, people often seek out a "why did this happen?" motive from some religion, so too when some random chance befalls people even in a role playing game, an explanation is sought out. In this case, since most people don't believe that they're being punished for stealing from a store by rolling a "1", people choose a morally neutral deity, "luck". Luck has been worshiped as a god (or goddess usually) in many religions, but now in U.S. culture it enters as something closer to "the force". It's out there somewhere, it works to explain why I rolled 4-20s in a row, and the only way to pray to it is to invoke some hubris, "I can't help but win! only rolling a 1 causes me to fail!".
Anyhow, I am arguing that luck (for many people in U.S. society) enters as an explanatory factor to cope with life. From there, since you already have the attention of the deity, it's almost natural to suppose that the attention of the deity is still upon you until something demonstrates otherwise.
Wow, what an unpopular argument that is. I'm pretty much claiming that many folks in the U.S. are almost poly-theistic on some level of consciousness when it comes to interacting and trying to cope with the day to day realities in life.
Please disagree, but I think that's why this is such an unclear argument, you (Wayne) are using "luck" in a way that the U.S. culture typically does not.
-Diomedes
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Corim Danex
Warlord
6802 Posts
West Valley City, Utah
| | 07/17/2005 12:01 PM |
| | I typically try to avoid giving credit to luck or bad luck. It's funny how growing up speaking a language (English) influences the way we react to situations. I also avoid telling people, "Good luck." There's not a lot of other choices, though. "Best wishes" is a bit odd, though I do say that more often. I don't think wishing on a birthday cake or on a shooting star does anything. I probably still wish before blowing out the candles, though I typically can't remember what I wished for 20 minutes later (because I don't believe it matters). So what I am trying to say is that exposure to culture and language influences our underlying reactions and thoughts. When different languages do not have words for certain concepts, it's difficult for someone to stumble upon those ideas. I have been vaguely looking for years to find other options that I would prefer over "Good luck," "Best Wishes," etc. I think the concept I agree the most with is, "I hope you do well." While hoping and wishing are very nearly the same word, there are subtle differences. | |
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glumag
Warlord
5968 Posts
| | 07/17/2005 1:58 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Corim Danex
I typically try to avoid giving credit to luck or bad luck. It's funny how growing up speaking a language (English) influences the way we react to situations. I also avoid telling people, "Good luck." There's not a lot of other choices, though. "Best wishes" is a bit odd, though I do say that more often. I don't think wishing on a birthday cake or on a shooting star does anything. I probably still wish before blowing out the candles, though I typically can't remember what I wished for 20 minutes later (because I don't believe it matters). So what I am trying to say is that exposure to culture and language influences our underlying reactions and thoughts. When different languages do not have words for certain concepts, it's difficult for someone to stumble upon those ideas. I have been vaguely looking for years to find other options that I would prefer over "Good luck," "Best Wishes," etc. I think the concept I agree the most with is, "I hope you do well." While hoping and wishing are very nearly the same word, there are subtle differences.
Heh, for example people here in the U.S. generally say "God Bless You" when you sneeze, something that I was very amazed to hear when I first got here as from where I come from we do not even come close to that, we say something more on the lines of "good health to you". I've encountered a few people here who do not want to assume you believe in God so they just say "bless you" and I always look at them extrangely and say, "who? you?" ...wackjobs.
But I agree with Corim Danex as it is the culture that influences your logic as well; the universe is mathematical at its core, so probability is a fact but you can very well roll 1s 20 times in succession as well as none and when it comes to dice rolling, things are more random than probable. Ζ] says...Reply Hazy, Try Again ! [)] | |
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nyjastul69
Commander
2711 Posts
Rhode Island
| | 07/17/2005 2:43 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by glumag:
Heh, for example people here in the U.S. generally say "God Bless You" when you sneeze, something that I was very amazed to hear when I first got here
This might offer some insight.
http://www.straightdope.com/mailbag/mgesundheit.html
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