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Subject: The effect of turn lead on initiative

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Gnolaum
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08/31/2006 10:20 AM  
What is the effect of having a lead on turn for initiative?

If your opponent rolls a:
1: 1-(1-1)/6=1 -> you will win initiative
2: 1-(2-1)/6=.8333 -> you will win initiative 83% of the time
3: 1-(3-1)/6=.6667 -> you will win initiative 67% of the time
4: 1-(4-1)/6=.5 -> you will win initiative 50% of the time
5: 1-(5-1)/6=.3333 -> you will win initiative 33% of the time
6: 1-(6-1)/6=.1667 -> you will win initiative 17% of the time

Average: You will win initiative 58.33% of the time

That 8.33% might not seem like much, but when you compare it to your opponents 41.67% chance, you are 40% more likely to win initiative than your opponent.

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DMG
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Dallas

08/31/2006 12:11 PM  

I"m no good at math - but what is the percent chance that two players will roll the same number?

 


Gnolaum
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08/31/2006 12:17 PM  
Given that player 1 rolls X, there is a 1/6 chance (or 16.67%) that the second player will roll the same number.  On a 6x6 plot of all possible numbers, 6 of them are identical, again yielding 6/36 or 1/6.

You might notice that 58.33-41.67=16.67.

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adam.skinner
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08/31/2006 12:29 PM  
I guess I don't understand what you're saying, or your math.

Are you taking into account that on a tie, the person who won the last round will take initiative?

And really, of what tangible benefit is initiative?  Isn't it offset by the fact that the second player's attacks do not receive deathblows?

Gnolaum
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08/31/2006 1:23 PM  
Winning initiative has pros and cons.

If you are ahead on turns, then your win ties on initiative.

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XAos
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09/01/2006 1:49 AM  

A note on initiative. rules P.35

Abilities that alter initiative rolls don’t alter the number of spawn points each player gets each turn, or whether the spawn phase is skipped.

So at some point there should be abilities which affect the initiative roll.

[QUOTE]DMG wrote
I"m no good at math - but what is the percent chance that two players will roll the same number?

[/QUOTE]

Assume your playing the DCI floor rules which forbid consecutive turns with no spawn phase.

If last turn had a spawn phase, so you don't reroll 1's. It's 6/36 of rolling doubles. (16.7%)

If last turn did not have a spawn phase, you roll doubles 5/25 (20%).

So the advantage of a lead in VP's occilates between those 2 values. Depending on the previous turns spawn roll.

[QUOTE]adam.skinner wrote
And really, of what tangible benefit is initiative?  Isn't it offset by the fact that the second player's attacks do not receive deathblows?
[/QUOTE]

Deathblows are frequently irrelevant. Player-2 doesn't get to roll for all creatures in the cell, only the destroyed ones. And they can't use blade abilities. e.g. a deathblow by a Boneblade serpent is much less effective than it's normal attack. 

So player-1 ends up with a significant advantage in attritional fire-power.

Player-2 does have a compensating advantage, but it's not the "deathblow" rule. Some abilities work more effectivly as second player. When your opponent cannot respond before the end of turn. e.g. If player-2 rolls a blade-skirmish they can move into an empty cell & be certain that player-1 has no way to contest the cell that turn.

The overall effect is; If you play a warband without using any abilities which gain an advantage moving 2nd. You can expect your chance to win to be excessivly dependant on winning initiative. i.e. such warbands can win games, but (probably) not tournaments.


Don't worry about the current metagame. It doesn't matter if it's ugly, bad, or the best ever. In 2 years time, set rotation will ban everything.
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