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sage_raistlin
Sergeant
377 Posts
    
 | | 03/02/2006 6:12 PM |
| Well I've been watching the price of the older figures go up over the years and I was wondering if anyone thinks we are reaching the limit here.
Hot figures are always going to be high priced for Skirmish, but as more of the older figures are remade or similar figures are released, I feel the price of the figure in general are going to start taking a hit. I know at it peak, mage knight was very high on it figures, now you can buy cases of them off e-bay for about $2 a booster.
I realize that the fact that the RPG market is going to drive the desire for the figures a lot longer then mage knight held on, but I feel we are reaching critical mass here on the pricing. Lets face it as the quality of the figures improve over the older ones (the trolls are a good example) more people are going to want to get more for thier money.
I can see a collector paying $120 for Drizzt, but someone just looking for RPG in general is going to rather get 100 figures for that same investment. A big thing is going to be how long WOTC supports the game, but I know at some point they will drop it and the market is going to get flooded with alot of figures.
Just was wondering if anyone else was feeling this way or how they felt about it. | |
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alepulp
Underboss
1538 Posts
Manchester, England
| | 03/02/2006 6:22 PM |
| From a selfish perspective, I feel good, I was lucky and started with Harbinger and have two complete sets - as such I like the rate of return on my investment (even if I might never be able to realise it).
However, I see newer players/collectors struggling and I can only see if I can trade something from the earlier sets to help them - however, my supply of Harbinger trades is nearly completely depleted now.
Pricing - well... some things are just kept artificially high - but that is market forces in action. | |
One of these days WoTC will update their tournament page when I'm in the top 5... they never seem to do when I'm in that bracket :(
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
| | 03/02/2006 9:45 PM |
| I don't think we're at the bursting point yet. Then again, I'll probably be hording mine for RPG anyway.
I have stats on prices back into 2004, and a little bit into 2003. The trends are slowing on some figures, but not all. Interestingly, there's plenty of movement on some figures. The Cleric of Order, for instance, has recently gone up and then down in price. But I don't think it's trending down. Instead, I think that it's correcting itself (as it were). I'm putting my money on the fact that, overall, it will show a slow growth, and that the recent dip was neither an aberration nor a reversal.
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
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Scarecrow
Sergeant
788 Posts
| | 03/02/2006 10:00 PM |
| Some friends and I had this conversattion the other day. On many levels, I guess the minis compare somewhat to Magic the gathering. One main difference though, is that DDM appeals to Collectors, skirmishers, and rpg's. Most other collectible type games only appeal to one or two groups. I think this will keep the price slowly going up. Who know, one day we might see early figures reaching the price of mox's, or black lotus' (one can hope.)
Granted, newer versions of old figures will probably come, but I don't think it will hurt old minis much (such as the troll.) In fact, I think it'll drive the price up more. We've seen small examples of this already with remakes such as the minotaur, and some of the other commons/uncommons.
Eventually, thinks will catch up and mellow out a bit, but I feel that early stuff will continue (albiet slowly) to rise. In this sense, I think it'll be somewhat similar to Magic. But then again, maybe it's just me. | |
I need a newcastle... | |
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Gnolaum
Sergeant
854 Posts
| | 03/02/2006 10:05 PM |
| The bubble will only burst if WotC stops supporting the game.
MageKnight burst when it was discontinued, and it was discontinued due to poor performance, which was due, I think, to player disastisfaction.
DDM is still going strong. It has passed all the crucial hurdles. I forsee this game still going strong 10 years from now, and Drizzt going for $300+ | |
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zenthrus
Warlord
5101 Posts
SLC, UT
| | 03/02/2006 10:13 PM |
| The price explosion will likely slow down somewhat, however, as an example a sealed case of Archfiends could be had for approximately $350 in December. Currently there are packs of 3 boosters selling for $110 (case total would be around $600) and a case recently sold for $800. Singles prices overall haven't moved quite that fast and certain pieces have been available recently for substantially less than guide price (I picked up a Human Blackguard for $15 as a Buy It Now).
While I don't expect the prices for singles to hit MtG proportions I can dream, can't I? [:D] | |
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Mortusbard
Sergeant
427 Posts
North Carolina
| | 03/02/2006 10:28 PM |
| I dont think there is a bubble in terms of high market price on limited figs.
WOTC makes a lot of calls that we scratch our heads at and wonder.
Remeber they pretty much invented the collectible card games and created an industry. The Black Lotus and the moxes may neer be duplicated in moderen terms. Though Drizzzt will probaly be the leading figure for a very long time followed by the Huge Red/Gold.
As long as wizards continues to produce D&D and we the consumer continue to play it, it will not fade. It is the perfect business model. They create a set amount of inventory and with 1-2 years the market has bought all that was produced. Thats akin to 0 loss. 0 loss = profit. That is what they are in the game for. If figure get expensive on the secondary market they watch it and try to duplicate it as it shows a serious interest in the game.
RPG D&D has withstood everything over the years and as long as it stands I think the Mini's will too. | |
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Round Table
Thenameless
Warlord
11768 Posts
The Fortress of Solitude
| | 03/03/2006 12:37 AM |
| | I have a two year old son that loves playing with the "toys", and another baby on the way. Boy or girl, I have a feeling the second one will be into D&D as well. I see a lot of people (Darkfather et al) whose kids are getting into minis. If this pattern holds, the price rise may slow down, but they should continue to inch upward. | |
Over 270 successful online DDM trades. | |
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Dimitris
Warrior
196 Posts
Athens - Greece
| | 03/03/2006 2:56 AM |
| My boys love them too. :) Thenameless, if your second one is a boy, prepare yourself for complains why you didn't get duplicates for all figures ! :D
Dimitris | |
Ha 72/80 De 57/60 Ar 53/60 GoL 67/72 Ab 56/60 Dk 55/60 Af 54/60 Ud 57/60 Wd 58/60 WQ 55/60 BW 58/60 Uh 55/60 NB 57/60 DD 57/60 DuD 54/60 AtG 56/60 | |
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Choco Monster
Ghendar
Warlord
12463 Posts
The G Spot
| | 03/03/2006 6:57 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Scarecrow
Some friends and I had this conversattion the other day. On many levels, I guess the minis compare somewhat to Magic the gathering. One main difference though, is that DDM appeals to Collectors, skirmishers, and rpg's. Most other collectible type games only appeal to one or two groups. I think this will keep the price slowly going up. Who know, one day we might see early figures reaching the price of mox's, or black lotus' (one can hope.)
I think this is the key to the long term success of DDM. It's like music that crosses formats. The more groups it appeals to, the more popular it tends to be. I don't see DDM going away anytime soon. | |
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dulsin
Sneak
171 Posts
| | 03/03/2006 9:27 AM |
| There are a few thing that can kill the price of the minis.
1 The game could tank. If people start loosing interest and stop going to tourneys and WOTC stops supporting D&D products. Basicly this will only happen if Hasbro goes chapter 11 dragging WotC with it.
2. WotC over produces. When MTG was big they started introducing a new set every 3 months. The cards were crap people started quiting the game in droves.
3. WotC destroys collecability. Next set Drizzt, LSD and Drow Cleric of Lolth are introduced with the same or better sculpt with the exact same stat cards as uncommons. When every 4th booster has a Drizzt yours won't be worth much any more. During the 2nd-3rd year of MTG Icy manipulators were starting to push up into the $50 range then they reintroduced them in 4th edition with a different picture and they were down to $1 over night. | |
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striderlotr
Commander
3370 Posts
| | 03/03/2006 9:34 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by dulsin
There are a few thing that can kill the price of the minis.
1 The game could tank. If people start loosing interest and stop going to tourneys and WOTC stops supporting D&D products. Basicly this will only happen if Hasbro goes chapter 11 dragging WotC with it.
This could happen to any company, but I think WotC and Hasbro are doing ok. I have a feeling that D&D will always be supported.
quote:
2. WotC over produces. When MTG was big they started introducing a new set every 3 months. The cards were crap people started quiting the game in droves.
WotC does this now. They produce 3 sets of magic and a core set each year. Players are still buying it, and I would have to say buying it even more with the Ravnica block. The stores I see are selling out of the stuff left and right.
quote:
3. WotC destroys collecability. Next set Drizzt, LSD and Drow Cleric of Lolth are introduced with the same or better sculpt with the exact same stat cards as uncommons. When every 4th booster has a Drizzt yours won't be worth much any more. During the 2nd-3rd year of MTG Icy manipulators were starting to push up into the $50 range then they reintroduced them in 4th edition with a different picture and they were down to $1 over night.
I thought that about Yu-gi-oh. They have been releasing these sets that have older cards reprinted in them, including the big foil cards reprinted without the foil and common. It has done nothing but cause people to wont the originals even more.
Collectors are very particular about their collections. For some it is about the game, for others it is about beig complete. I'm not thinking the bubble will burst any time soon. | |
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Champion of Elementals
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Zenako
Commander
3469 Posts
| | 03/03/2006 11:29 AM |
| | My feeling is that we good to go for sometime at this point. The production runs of the minis are still small enough that they are not saturating/flooding the market. Bodes well for long term support and collectibility. | |
Built the addition for this addiction, now on to the "gaming table" project....
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Set Status: in a nutshell = all of all
In Process trades 0), (Sig last updated 05/29/06) 300 plus Completed Trades -
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Aesnath
Underboss
1358 Posts
Augusta, GA
| | 03/03/2006 11:42 AM |
| | I think D&D RPG is kinda a ship that won't sink at this point. Sure it could go under, but I doubt, even in a worst case scenerio, that it'll truely be gone (someone else will buy it if Hasbro/Wotc goes under). Many D&D players have been playing for decades, and will probably do so in the future, even if they don't play constantly (i.e. they take a break for a couple of years). As a result, the minis game will probably be around, in some form, for quite some time. The only thing I'd be worried about is the skirmish game dying, but, right now, it looks pretty good. | |
**Note: Unless otherwise stated all my minis are unbagged**
My reference thread is at: http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=12765
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Zoons
Underboss
1066 Posts
| | 03/03/2006 12:24 PM |
| Overproduction will be determined in a big way by development. When M:tg released sets like Fallen Empires, Homelands and the whole stupid Mercadian Masques block, people did flee in droves. Fortunately, with a new release every 4 months, the game was able to re-invent itself Urza's Block, Invasion Block, Ravnica (so far), and replace those droves with other droves. Phew, that's a lot of droves.
What I'm worried about right now is the power escalation. Right now if a piece can't hit for 15-20 Magic damage with at least a +13 to hit and multiple attacks and speed 6+, it isn't viable. Every faction is getting them. The faction lines are getting blurred and I think a lot of the older pieces that don't have RPG uniqueness will plateau in price over the next year or so. I don't believe they'll tank in price unless the game fizzles completely (not bloody likely). So, hopefully Drizzt is our only P9 for DDM. | |
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dulsin
Sneak
171 Posts
| | 03/03/2006 1:08 PM |
| I don't think we will see DDM have any of the problems that plagued MTG (at least not this year)
There is a definate power creep in the figures but that is adressed in the point cost of the figures. Other than the problem of over values on dragons I don't see any serious problems with the figures.
Yes the average point/figure is way up since Dragoneye but there are few pieces that are way outside the envelope as value in scirmish. Drizzt is a great figure but at 87 points he is not as big a bargain as the Helmed Horror at 45 or the Rikka at 31. Drizzt is not a Black Lotus or a Time walk power level.
We are going to see some rediculasly high point figures next year. CBD GRD Draco Lich, Aspect of Tiamat .... there will be a bunch of figures who dwarf the Night Walkers 393 cost after WotDQ comes out. I won't be surprised if 500 point constructed becomes the standard next year. | |
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