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Subject: War Drums Ebay Pricing Analysis ...

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jgsugden
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03/07/2006 2:34 PM  
I took a quick look at Ebay Pricing for our new set of rares. I looked at the last 10 sale prices (excluding 'lot' sales with multiple figures and buy it now sales). Then, I averaged those prices - once without shipping, and once with shipping factored into the equation (but excluding the effect of combined shipping). The tiers are my way of breaking things up. In the lower tiers, the figures are listed in decending average sale price. Figures with a * next to them had some drastic differences in sale prices amongst the 10 sampled auctions.

Top Tier:

Chimera - Avg 17.08 (19.72 w/ shipping)

Second Tier:

Large Bronze Dragon - Avg 14.00 (16.54 w/ shipping)

Third Tier:

Aspect of Hextor - Avg 11.34 (14.05 w/ shipping)
War Troll - Avg 10.36 (12.71 w/ shipping)
Hill Giant Chieftan - Avg 9.78 (12.48 w/ shipping)

Fourth Tier: (Avg 8.00 - 9.05 (shipping not included))

Shuluth, Archvillian
Ogre War Hulk
Night Hag
Sand Giant
Warforged Barbarian* (Two Very High Sales Dragged Him Up)

Fifth Tier: (Avg 6.99 - 7.80 (shipping not included))

Khumat
Dragon Totem Hero* (One Very High Sale Dragged Him Up)
Warduke* (Two Moderately High Sales Dragged Him Up)
Dragonne
Snig Worg Rider
King Obould Many Arrows
Aspect of Moradin
Arcane Ballista

Sixth Tier: (Avg 5.95 - 6.75 (shipping not included))

Wemic Barbarian
Warbound Impaler* (Two Moderately High Sales Dragged Him Up)
Orc Wardrummer
Gulgar
Zakya Rakshasa

If you discard the outliers, I think that the tiers/rankings would look like this:

Top Tier:

Chimera

Second Tier:

Large Bronze Dragon

Third Tier:

Aspect of Hextor
War Troll
Hill Giant Chieftan

Fourth Tier:

Shuluth, Archvillian
Ogre War Hulk
Night Hag
Sand Giant

Fifth Tier:

Khumat
Dragonne
Snig Worg Rider
King Obould Many Arrows
Aspect of Moradin
Arcane Ballista
Warforged Barbarian
Dragon Totem Hero
Warduke

Sixth Tier:

Wemic Barbarian
Orc Wardrummer
Gulgar
Warbound Impaler
Zakya Rakshasa

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03/07/2006 2:37 PM  
For Reference, here are the numbers ... (with the last column being the average)


Chimera - 50 Figure Only 10.99 21.51 12.52 16 14.5 30 17.5 15.26 16 16.5 170.78 17.078
Large Bronze Dragon - 65 Figure Only 9.63 14.5 10.99 15 13.25 11.6 15.5 14.51 20 15.01 139.99 13.999
Aspect Of Hextor - 75 Figure Only 8.5 10.55 10.5 11.01 15.5 8.76 11.56 16.5 11.5 9.02 113.4 11.34
War Troll - 69 Figure Only 9.13 8.49 12.5 7.76 11.5 9.51 10.77 10.01 9.51 14.5 103.68 10.368
Hill Giant Chieftain - 95 Figure Only 6.5 9.99 11.09 7.5 10 13.5 7.16 9.99 12.07 9.95 97.75 9.775
Shuluth, Archvillian - 59 Figure Only 9.25 8 9.49 8.49 7 10.75 11.5 6.06 11 8.98 90.52 9.052
Ogre War Hulk - 56 Figure Only 13.5 7.99 7.5 9.27 8.49 7.19 6.59 6 7.76 10 84.29 8.429
Night Hag - 43 Figure Only 7.12 7.52 9.45 10.5 9.49 7.29 7.76 6.5 9.53 8 83.16 8.316
Sand Giant - 79 Figure Only 8.5 6.6 11 10.75 6.5 10.5 4.75 4.49 8.99 10.2 82.28 8.228
Warforged Barbarian - 49 Figure Only 4.75 4.01 5.75 13.5 16.26 6 8.03 8 7.75 6 80.05 8.005
Khumat - 51 Figure Only 7.01 5.75 5 9.5 13 10.5 8.51 6.5 9.38 2.76 77.91 7.791
Dragon Totem Hero - 58 Figure Only 5 7.01 6.5 5.6 6.25 6.27 5.04 9.99 9.01 15.5 76.17 7.617
Warduke - 70 Figure Only 8.5 7.5 6.82 6.01 6.1 9 6.6 10.76 5.75 8.5 75.54 7.554
Dragonne - 36 Figure Only 6.99 9.99 6.51 7.51 6.5 6.5 8 7.11 7.05 8.16 74.32 7.432
Snig Worg Rider - 42 Figure Only 8 7 7.01 6.5 7.01 8.61 7 7 9.5 6.05 73.68 7.368
King Obould Many Arrows - 65 Figure Only 4.75 7.06 5 9 9.1 7.51 9.76 8.51 6.57 6.19 73.45 7.345
Aspect Of Moradin - 93 Figure Only 5.53 7.75 5.6 7.5 8.01 6.82 4.3 5.09 9.76 10 70.36 7.036
Arcane Ballista - 48 Figure Only 8.5 6.99 7.02 6.5 6.61 5.5 7.01 7.18 6.01 8.52 69.84 6.984
Wemic Barbarian - 53 Figure Only 6.5 6.1 5.5 7 7 6.26 8.51 9.51 4.28 6.75 67.41 6.741
Warbound Impaler - 52 Figure Only 3.25 5.55 4.25 3.6 8 10.5 6.25 11.03 5.19 8.49 66.11 6.611
Orc Wardrummer - 19 Figure Only 6.01 6.5 4.75 5.5 9.5 7.5 4.35 6.95 8.5 6 65.56 6.556
Gulgar - 47 Figure Only 5.01 5.6 5.5 5.51 5.5 4.69 7.99 5.6 10.56 8.95 64.91 6.491
Zakya Rakshasa - 36 Figure Only 4.3 6 6 5.75 6 7.5 5.5 6 5.5 6.99 59.54 5.954

Chimera - 50 With Shipping 14.99 23.51 15.52 18 17.45 32 20 17.26 18 20.5 197.23 19.723
Large Bronze Dragon - 65 With Shipping 13.13 16 14.99 17 16.25 14.55 17.5 17.01 22 17.01 165.44 16.544
Aspect Of Hextor - 75 With Shipping 12.5 12.55 13.5 13.01 17.5 12.26 14.56 18.5 13.5 12.27 140.15 14.015
War Troll - 69 With Shipping 11.63 9.99 14.5 10.76 13.5 12.46 12.77 13.01 12.01 16.5 127.13 12.713
Hill Giant Chieftain - 95 With Shipping 9 13.99 13.09 9.5 12.5 15.5 9.16 13.99 14.07 14 124.8 12.48
Shuluth, Archvillian - 59 With Shipping 11.25 11 11.49 10.49 9.5 13.75 13.5 8.06 15 10.98 115.02 11.502
Night Hag - 43 With Shipping 9.62 9.52 12.45 13.45 11.49 9.29 12.76 9.5 11.53 10 109.61 10.961
Ogre War Hulk - 56 With Shipping 16 11.99 9.5 12.27 10.49 9.19 8.59 8.5 10.76 12 109.29 10.929
Sand Giant - 79 With Shipping 10.5 9.55 13 12.75 9 12.5 6.75 6.49 12.99 12.2 105.73 10.573
Dragon Totem Hero - 58 With Shipping 9 9.01 9.5 8.1 9.25 8.27 7.04 13.24 11.01 19.55 103.97 10.397
Warforged Barbarian - 49 With Shipping 7.25 6.01 9.75 15.5 18.26 8.5 10.03 10 9.75 8 103.05 10.305
Khumat - 51 With Shipping 9.01 9.75 8 11.5 15 13.5 10.51 8.5 12.38 4.76 102.91 10.291
Dragonne - 36 With Shipping 8.49 13.99 8.51 10.51 9.45 8.5 10 9.61 10.05 10.16 99.27 9.927
Warduke - 70 With Shipping 10.5 10.5 8.82 8.01 9.05 11 9.1 13.76 7.75 10.5 98.99 9.899
Snig Worg Rider - 42 With Shipping 11 9.5 9.01 9.5 9.01 11.1 9.5 10.5 11.5 8.05 98.67 9.867
King Obould Many Arrows - 65 With Shipping 7.25 9.06 8 11 11.1 10.1 12.76 10.51 8.57 8.19 96.54 9.654
Arcane Ballista - 48 With Shipping 11 10.99 9.02 9.5 9.56 8 10.01 9.18 8.01 10.52 95.79 9.579
Aspect Of Moradin - 93 With Shipping 8.53 9.75 9.6 9.5 10.01 8.82 6.3 7.09 13.01 12 94.61 9.461
Wemic Barbarian - 53 With Shipping 9 8.1 9.5 10 9.5 8.76 11.51 11.51 6.28 10 94.16 9.416
Gulgar - 47 With Shipping 7.01 9.6 8.5 8.01 7.5 6.69 11.24 7.6 14.61 13 93.76 9.376
Orc Wardrummer - 19 With Shipping 8.01 9.5 7.25 8.5 11.5 9.5 6.35 11 12.55 9 93.16 9.316
Warbound Impaler - 52 With Shipping 5.75 7.55 8.25 6.6 10 12.5 8.75 12.03 7.19 11.49 90.11 9.011
Zakya Rakshasa - 36 With Shipping 7.3 8 10 8.75 8 9.5 8 8 7.5 10.24 85.29 8.529

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Count Dooku
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03/07/2006 2:40 PM  
Wasnt there a thread earlier that was talkign about how everyone was digging the Warbound Impaler?

Now its bottom tier?

Your list makes me feel better...Maybe I can get a Dragonne and a Warforged Barbarian for Warduke and a Khumat. :)


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jgsugden
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03/07/2006 2:43 PM  
A reminder: These are sale prices. People exhibit different behavior in selling and trading. Further, it is still early in the game. I expect to see these numbers change over the next three weeks as the 'rush' of a new set fades. However, the information is useful as a snapshot for this week ...

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Lab Monkey
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03/07/2006 2:51 PM  
Interesting. I would have guessed the Dragonne and Snig to be higher tier figures.

Thanks for posting this jgsugden.

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03/07/2006 3:21 PM  
I wouldn't be surprised if the Hill Giant Chieftan goes down in value.

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03/07/2006 3:26 PM  
With all the Warforged raving that went on prerelease I find it amusing that the Warforged Barbarian is middle of the pack as it were and not floating near the bottom.

Interesting pulse check none the less, thanks!

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jgsugden
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03/07/2006 3:33 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by devasque

With all the Warforged raving that went on prerelease I find it amusing that the Warforged Barbarian is middle of the pack as it were and not floating near the bottom...
If you look at his sale prices, they were:

4.75, 4.01, 5.75, 13.5, 16.26, 6, 8.03, 8, 7.75, and 6.

4 dollar range X2
5 dollar range X1
6 dollar range X2
7 dollar range X1
8 dollar range X2
13 dollar range X1
16 dollar range X1


That pretty much tells you everything you need to know ... somebody paid 4X what another person paid ...

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03/07/2006 3:36 PM  
I'm hoping it stays mostly at this same level. I remember when I looked at Auggie's stuff and he had the Dragonne at $11 I was shocked. It's not that good, I mean come on! I want more of the things on the fourth, fifth and sixth tier more than I do the top three so that's a good thing to me.

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03/07/2006 3:38 PM  
I'm suprised to see Snig Worgrider so far down. I figures the RPG crowd would want (many) multiples, even if the size is off.


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03/07/2006 3:49 PM  
Also, why is the Sand Giant so high?

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03/07/2006 3:52 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Ridureyu

Also, why is the Sand Giant so high?



more than likely because its a giant. Giants and dragons no matter what there stats or usefullness in skirmish are always going to be in demand for RPGers if nothing else.

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03/07/2006 4:04 PM  
I usually price things closer to what Auggie's store has them be. While it only works for newer figs, usually his prices are pretty reasonable. I've seen a few other sellers that come close to his, and I think this is a growing trend and a good thing.

Some of the prices you find on various sites are just amazing, and I'm not sure why ppl purchase from them. I've seen WF barb's go for like $10, etc.. I would hope more ppl would do more "research" to find cheaper figs.

Obviouslt the chimera is up there, but I really havent seen the Dragonne go for that cheap..but maybe its just me. The War Troll does seem to have a lot of popularity. So does the HG Chieftain for some reason. The Large Bronze is a dragon, we all knew it'd be expensive.

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03/07/2006 4:14 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by True_Blue

I usually price things closer to what Auggie's store has them be...
To be clear, the above amounts are not 'set' store prices, like the prices for Auggie's buy it now auctions in his store. Instead, the prices listed above were the result of auctions.

You can expect store prices, even for Auggie, to be a little higher.

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03/07/2006 4:26 PM  
Ahh I understand. It seems like a lot of ppl actually end up spending more on auctions than some of the BIN stores, which is amazing. But then again, there are some thrifty shoppers who spend a lot less, especially on the "tier 6" peices and such.

I'm surprised at the Dragonne the most really. I would have thought that they would be bid on a lot, and the price would go up. With the Hill Giant Chieftan, I'm surprised it costs a lot considering you can get plenty of the HGB cheap. everything else seems dead on for what you'd expect really, or at least I think so.

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03/07/2006 4:29 PM  
the lowest prices kinda surprised me... tho the data is still early. Seriously - these have only been on the street for what? 3 days technically.

I imagine we will see most of the rares end up in the 9-15 dollar range with 2-3 standouts going for more (Balor, eg) and 1-2 going for way less (Dromite)

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03/07/2006 4:39 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by jgsugden

quote:
Originally posted by devasque

With all the Warforged raving that went on prerelease I find it amusing that the Warforged Barbarian is middle of the pack as it were and not floating near the bottom...
If you look at his sale prices, they were:

4.75, 4.01, 5.75, 13.5, 16.26, 6, 8.03, 8, 7.75, and 6.

4 dollar range X2
5 dollar range X1
6 dollar range X2
7 dollar range X1
8 dollar range X2
13 dollar range X1
16 dollar range X1


That pretty much tells you everything you need to know ... somebody paid 4X what another person paid ...



You really have to wonder about the idiots who put a bid in for an item thats higher than its buy it now price from any of the online mini sales. Auggies has him for 5.99. I think its safe to assume hes in the 3.99 bin when the prices are reevaluated.

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03/07/2006 4:41 PM  
quote:

I imagine we will see most of the rares end up in the 9-15 dollar range with 2-3 standouts going for more (Balor, eg) and 1-2 going for way less (Dromite)



Why on earth would the majority of the rares go for equal to or more than a pack costs? In most sets, the rares average about 7-8 dollars.

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03/07/2006 4:45 PM  
Well, you could have fooled me on the Warforged Barbarian, I have only two left and mine are at 10.95, I presold and had 6 or 7 go for upwords of 15 dollars each. Course part of that was people paying that wanted to have their figures as quickly as possible, and the price will go down, but there is no way I am going to price a figure that has sold that well initially at 5.99. We'll see what the market does, but the warforged have sold amazingly well so far for me, despite the uproar I have seen across the boards here and at Wizards. So don't count em out yet.

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03/07/2006 4:59 PM  
Snig will go up, just because of all the RPGers that want to run a pack of worg riders.

Zauk's blue on a Dire Bat is much cooler.

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03/07/2006 5:04 PM  
I'm amazed the Ogre War Hulk isn't more in demand. it's a great RPG piece.

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03/07/2006 5:10 PM  
Ghendar... SHHHHHhhhhh don't say that. I still need 3 more.[:D]

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03/07/2006 5:38 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Thousandsofminis

Well, you could have fooled me on the Warforged Barbarian, I have only two left and mine are at 10.95, I presold and had 6 or 7 go for upwords of 15 dollars each. Course part of that was people paying that wanted to have their figures as quickly as possible, and the price will go down, but there is no way I am going to price a figure that has sold that well initially at 5.99. We'll see what the market does, but the warforged have sold amazingly well so far for me, despite the uproar I have seen across the boards here and at Wizards. So don't count em out yet.

Adam
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P.S. A quick note to anyone reading this that ordered pre-orders from me, as of yesterday afternoon all of my pre-orders were in the mail, and from feedback I am seeing that numerous orders were already in people's hands.





I got my pre-order yesterday. Thanks!

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03/07/2006 5:59 PM  
Personally, I'm most surprised by the Chimera. Really, it isn't that great a piece. For RPG, it is not an incredibly useful piece. For Skirmish ... it has issues. In appearence, it is acceptable, but not outstanding. To me, it is a middle of the pack rare. I can't fathom why people think it is the best of the set.

On the other extreme, I think the Warbound Impaler is a nice looking piece, with acceptable RPG utility and some interesting skirmish possibilities (a chance to paralyze 2 creatures per turn - that has potential when it is on a durable piece). To me, it should be a notch below the chimera, not on the opposite end of the spectrum from it.

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03/07/2006 6:18 PM  
quote:
Why on earth would the majority of the rares go for equal to or more than a pack costs? In most sets, the rares average about 7-8 dollars.


I think this is a very good set for rares, lots of large monsters, and very few generic looking characters. They also did a good job of combining the less exciting (sculpt-wise) rares with interesting skirmish abilities (Dragon Totem Hero, Orc Wardrummer - and even these aren't as vanilla as we've seen in the past). Most previous sets have a lot of anchors bringing down the average rare price. I don't know about $9 - 15 as an average price for the rares, but $8 -12 seems probable.

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03/07/2006 6:33 PM  
The chimera, while being a very subpar miniature, is such a fan favorite and classic monster, it was bound to sell really well. I actually think a lot of ppl who are dying to get them, subsequently spending a lot of money on it, don't have one and realize just how bad it looks heh. Also, you know everyone will at least want one, even if its crappy looking. Its a shame because the mini had so much promise too. I think it sucks that it costs so much because who knows if WotC thinks they did a good job with it now, which I hope they don't. That paint job, mold lines, etc..looks horrible.

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03/07/2006 6:47 PM  
The Chimera is THE "iconic" piece in the set. It's an Old Skool monster that a lot of people are going to want. The master paint also looks very nice, which may have suckered some people in. We'll see if it keeps demanding high prices once the initial frenzy is over.

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03/07/2006 7:33 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by kyrin

The Chimera is THE "iconic" piece in the set. It's an Old Skool monster that a lot of people are going to want...
Hmmmm ...

Old Skool Monster ...
A lot of people will want ...

Ropers, (Celestial) Pegasi, Djinni, Efreeti, Barbed Devils, Centaur (Hero), Ettin (Skirmishers) all seem to fit in those categories. They've had a variety of interest ... but none has approached the Chimera's current demand.

The chimera is not a core D&D monster like a giant or dragon. It doesn't have a huge following in literature. It is a minor mythological beast. Few people even know the myth(s) involving the chimera.

It is baffling to me that it'd get more interest than the Hill Giant Chieftain, the War Troll, or the Ogre War Hulk.

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03/07/2006 7:38 PM  
Bellerophon killed a Chimera. he was riding Pegasus.

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03/07/2006 7:38 PM  
I think the reason for that is the Troll, Hill Giant and the Ogre have been done before. Too me the chimera is almost as icon as the beholder too my D&D. So I'm not suprised.

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03/07/2006 7:52 PM  
It also goes well with the Manticore - both are relatively ismilar monsters from Greek Mythology. On top of this, the Dragonne makes a good manticore proxy.

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03/07/2006 9:12 PM  
The top three tiers make sense to me, as does the Chimera with its uniqueness in the lead.

I thought the Ogre War Hulk would crack tier 3, and the Orc Wardrummer seems a little low as well (it ain't no ordinary orc with a weapon). Chalk these last two up to personal preference though. I likeses me Orcs and me Ogres.

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03/07/2006 10:15 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Ridureyu

Bellerophon killed a Chimera. he was riding Pegasus.

Ugh.

It wasn't a challenge. It was a comment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimera_%28mythology%29

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03/07/2006 11:58 PM  
Yeah, I know what you mean, though. if you want to get obscure, kjust look at how few people know where the name "Abishai" came from.

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03/08/2006 3:05 AM  
Well the manticore sucked really bad in GoL. I think I would rather use the Dragonne if it came down to it.

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03/08/2006 7:50 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by kyrin

The Chimera is THE "iconic" piece in the set. It's an Old Skool monster that a lot of people are going to want. The master paint also looks very nice, which may have suckered some people in. We'll see if it keeps demanding high prices once the initial frenzy is over.

JIM
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That is exactly what happened with me. I was so excited to finally pull one that it was a major dissappointment to see the piss poor paint job on what should have been *the* flagship figure for this set.

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03/08/2006 8:19 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by jgsugden

Personally, I'm most surprised by the Chimera. Really, it isn't that great a piece. For RPG, it is not an incredibly useful piece. For Skirmish ... it has issues. In appearence, it is acceptable, but not outstanding. To me, it is a middle of the pack rare. I can't fathom why people think it is the best of the set.

On the other extreme, I think the Warbound Impaler is a nice looking piece, with acceptable RPG utility and some interesting skirmish possibilities (a chance to paralyze 2 creatures per turn - that has potential when it is on a durable piece). To me, it should be a notch below the chimera, not on the opposite end of the spectrum from it.



I think the Chimera is going to carry it's value for a while. It's one of the most iconic D&D monsters and there is no proxy for a 3 headed monster in the DDM line. In my RPG past I've used this beastie more than a dozen times. The Warbound Impaler OTOH, I've never heard of before this set, I can only assume it's a Eberron beastie. To me that's more than enough reason why the prices are as they are. I don't have a Chimera yet (1 coming from trade and 1 from e-Bay purchase) but, I don't see the crappy paint job being all that much of an inhibiting factor, every mini in this set that I've seen has a subpar paint job.


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03/08/2006 11:02 AM  
The telling metric to me is how the numbers compare to the booster pricing. Any rare which sells for more than a booster price is a "hot one" and those rares selling for a bunch less are "loosers".

If we take the average booster price for case buys at about $9 (after shipping), then only 5 of the minis in this set get kudos from the buying public. It would be interesing to see how other sets stacked up by this metric as well shortly after their releases.

I know that a few EBAY sellers used to sell opened boosters with the rare listed for list price, and there were a handful of minis you would buy the booster for without a second thought. Giants in GoL, Dragons in DE, etc. While other rares went begging until they dropped the asking price after a few times on EBAY.

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03/08/2006 11:15 AM  
Well, now I feel better about that extra Hextor, especially if I can pull off trading it for a War Troll, Hulk, or 2 Rakshasa.

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03/08/2006 1:18 PM  
yea after seeing the numbers, I'm definetly a lot happier with what I pulled. I pulled a lot of the high end rares and barely any of the Humanoids that arent seeming to be too hot.

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