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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
    
Calgary, AB, Canada
 | | 04/07/2006 12:43 PM |
| The more I look at it, the more I’m convinced that a Dual Hill Giant Barbarian warband not a Tier 1 warband and this is why (please note this only applies to the standard 200 point assault format, Cave of Pain and Bounty scenarios are different matters):
First the quotes:quote:
“Don’t tell me what your warband CAN do, tell me what it WILL do.”
(not sure who said that seen it bandied around on the forums a few times)
What does Tier mean? I saw this definition earlier provided by Gloom_
quote:
- Tier 1: Strong synergetic band, with no overall weaknesses. Fully capable of taking a tournament.
- Tier 1.5: A tier 1 band in terms of composition or power, but with a severely bad matchup, or several less than favorable ones.
- Tier 2: A strong Warband, but with concept issues, flaws, or just an inherent weakness. Can win a Tournament in the right hands.
- Tier 3: Theme, cobbled together, and fun warbands. Can make a strong showing if played well, but unlikely.
The ingredients of a Dual HGB warband are as follows:
Option 1:
Hill Giant Barbarian x2
Orc Warrior x3
Orc Wardrummer
Drow Sergeant
(7 Activations/200 points)
-------------------------------------
Option 2:
Hill Giant Barbarian x2
Orc Warrior
Orc Wardrummer
Tiefling Captain (or Cleric of Gruumsh)
(5 Activations/299 points)
------------------------------------
Option 3:
Hill Giant Barbarian x2
Tiefling Captain (or Cleric of Gruumsh)
+/- Tech & Filler
------------------------------------
Option 3:
Hill Giant Barbarian x2
Orc Wardrummer
+/ Tech & Filler
(no commander)
------------------------------------
So let’s take a look at Option 1. What does the drow sergeant do for this warband? The sergeant gives the orc warriors +5 damage and with its commander rating of 2, it gives the HGB’s a 10% less chance of routing. Other than that the sergeant does very little for the warband. There is no synergy with the main hitters. Also very few competitive warbands run with this low of a commander rating. The odds are that there will be a lot of lost initiatives, which means there will be lower chance of selecting the map and map setup – which can hurt, a lot. And not just for setup, but for the duration of the game. Activations are vital. Running with 7 activations with fodder this fragile in today’s Tier 1 Metagame means that very quickly activation control will be lost (check out this article on the importance of activations: http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=dnd/mi/20051222b). One last thing of vital importance is the lack of a tile grabber (something to get victory points in assault.) The Speed 6 Orc Warriors are just to slow to perform this duty and are too fragile to hold a victory area when they finally get there. Of course the HGB’s can perform this duty with speed 10, but that take away from their role as a beater and can lead to less than optimal placement of these figures.
What about Option 2 then? The Tiefling Captain and the Cleric of Gruumsh commander effects both have synergy with the HGB’s. The captain is a more popular choice due to its commander rating of 4, which seems to be the minimum for most competitive warbands, and it is slightly more durable than the cleric. The greatest failing of this warband however is its lack of activations. At 5 activations it is even worse off than Option 1, in fact this can be down right fatal. Again the lack of a tile grabber is an issue, in fact even worse with less activations.
Option 3 elects to drop the Orc Wardrummer in order to fit in other tech and pieces. However the Wardrummer is a vial part of this warband as he changes the Save’s of the HGB’s from 8 to 12. This is a difference of 20%. That is 20% more likely to make a saving throw or to avoid routing. For 19 points the tech of this figure is a steal, and removing it in the attempt to flush out the activations greatly reduces the ability of this warband. Not to mention for 19 point you will not be able to find a better tech piece in CE.
Option 4 is worth mentioning if for no other reason than to discount it. There is the very real possibility that if a HGB were to fail its moral save that it will route right off the board with a double move of 20. So why bother with a commander – especially one like the Drow Sergeant which only gives 2 to the moral save? Two main reasons. First, even though the Sergeant only gives 2 to initiative, the likelihood of losing initiative is even greater. Second, out of command effects such as the Warpriest of Moradin commander effect mean that no-one should bring a warband to the table without a commander.
One other thing to pay attention to is the likelihood of routing for each option (assuming under a commander and wardrummer, if available):
Option 1: Moral Save of 14, 25% chance of failing.
Option 2: Moral Save of 16(15), 15%(20%) chance of failing.
Option 3: Moral Save of 12(11), 35%(40%) chance of failing.
Option 4: Moral Save of 12, 35% chance of failing.
Looking over all the options based on these facts, Options 3 and 4 have the least chance of success and are likely not viable options. Option 2 has the best save and synergy but lack of activations make it difficult. Option 1 has better activations and a middle ground on save, but lack of substance in any figures beyond the HGB’s make its success less assured.
All of these options and builds seem to indicate that the HGB’s are not in the Tier 1 category. That’s not to say under a skilled pilot and/or with lots of luck they can’t win. But they are not as the solid consistent performers that a true Tier 1 build should be.
In conclusion, the Dual Hill Giant Barbarian warband CAN do well, but there is a large element of luck and skill that needs to be involved. There is too much variance in controlling initiative and activations, to say that it WILL do well consistently. I have been going over tournament reports looking at how Dual HGB’s performed & from my own personal experiences. I feel that although powerful in it’s own right, this warband is not strong enough to be considered a Tier 1 warband.
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It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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Wrackspawn
ChristopherGroves
Warlord
6093 Posts
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loyce8869
49 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 12:58 PM |
| | Also your percentages for routing are off by 5% to much. | |
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Venport
Sergeant
739 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 1:10 PM |
| Even if you think they are not Tier 1 (witch i think they are) you need to look out for them. Most Tier 1 bands out there will have some trouble vs. them. Their Huge amount the HP and damage makes them a top dog, even Vs Charrl to witch the HGB do the least amount of dmg. they are hitting for 30 dmg. witch is the same as FB, more than Orc champs. There to hit is good, but not great.
However I'll put my money down that there will be a good # of people Qualifying with HGB builds.
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Sacramento DDM http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=16854
New world Project http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20745
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/07/2006 1:18 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by ChristopherGroves: Check the NE open results in the tournaments forum ... notice how some of the top HGB bands didn't use the Wardrummer ... consider those as well in your analysis.
I did review that tournement report before I wrote this article. Here are the relevent results:
2nd Place: Option 2
5th Place: Option 3 - but without the wardrummer
8th Place: Option 2 (varation) replaces the Orc Warrior for a Hyena - good for tile grabber!
24th Place: Option 1 - short 1 orc warrior
There were only 4 Dual HGB warbands (out of 28) - only 1 of those 4 did not have a wardrummer. | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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Wrackspawn
ChristopherGroves
Warlord
6093 Posts
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Wrackspawn
ChristopherGroves
Warlord
6093 Posts
| |
Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/07/2006 1:24 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by loyce8869: Also your percentages for routing are off by 5% to much.
If I've made a mistake please let me know where it is!
As far as I'm aware they are correct:
HGB save = 8
Wardrummer save = +4
Commander save = +(cmdr rating)
so for Option 1:
"Option 1: Moral Save of 14, 30% chance of failing." (Base 8 + 4 + 2 = 12)
Option 2 and 3 are at +4 for the Tiefling and +3 for the cleric... | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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Wrackspawn
ChristopherGroves
Warlord
6093 Posts
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/07/2006 1:29 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by ChristopherGroves: Right, but it went X-1 and was piloted by the one of the top ten players in the world ... you might want to consider that band strongly. "Removal of the Wardrummer" is a major change.
And in the event that I make it to a qualifier I will not be playing dual HGB. Whatever band I bring will be something that can reliably beat HGB, but it won't be a dual HGB band for sure. I don't like them as I think too many of their close matchups are decided by too few rolls.
Oh I agree that it is a major change - but if one of the top 10 players in the world ended up in 5th place...
I think this proves my point that it can be done, but requires more luck (good dice rolls) and skill (top player) - therefor being more of a high variance warband and less likely to "consistantly" do well. | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/07/2006 1:31 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by ChristopherGroves: With a +14 a 6 actually makes it, giving a 25% failure rate.
Doh! quite right! I made the clasic you have to roll EQUAL or better not just better mistake - Thank you guys for catching it - I will update the article! | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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Daunte
Sergeant
518 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 1:31 PM |
| quote:
so for Option 1:
"Option 1: Moral Save of 14, 30% chance of failing." (Base 8 + 4 + 2 = 12)
Didnt pay enough attention to who was wrong or right on your percentages, but 8 + 4 + 2 = 14. [)] | |
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/07/2006 1:39 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Venport: Even if you think they are not Tier 1 (witch i think they are) you need to look out for them. Most Tier 1 bands out there will have some trouble vs. them. Their Huge amount the HP and damage makes them a top dog, even Vs Charrl to witch the HGB do the least amount of dmg. they are hitting for 30 dmg. witch is the same as FB, more than Orc champs. There to hit is good, but not great.
However I'll put my money down that there will be a good # of people Qualifying with HGB builds.
Heh - we're all entitled to our opinions! I do think that the HGB is a Tier 1 piece, but placeing two Tier 1 pieces on the same warband does not automaticly make a Tier 1 warband (often it does... but not always ;)) I think there will be a percentage of warbands at the Qualifers with Dual HGB warbands, but I don't think that it will be too high. In the NE tournement report they were 14.3% of the warbands, and I don't think in the qualifers there will be more than 15% of the warbands being Dual HGBs. As a perdiction - I would say that those that make the qualifers (get an inviation) will be 10% or less. | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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Venport
Sergeant
739 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 1:46 PM |
| "we're all entitled to our opinions"
Yes we are. however Even if it is not a Tier 1 band you have to build your warband in a way to make sure you can beat them. | |
Sacramento DDM http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=16854
New world Project http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20745
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| The Great
Choco Monster
Ghendar
Warlord
12367 Posts
The G Spot
| | 04/07/2006 2:09 PM |
| My personal guess, and that's all it is right now, is people are either trying to build winning bands using the HGB or trying to figure out how to counter it while still making bands that are viable versus the rest of the metagame.
That statement might be a great big DUH! to you vets but that's what I'm expecting leading up to the qualifiers. | |
WotC - making me wish more and more every day for a return to the TSR days. :(
I fought the snark and the snark won. I'm baaaaaaaaaaack!
Some of my favorite Maxminis quotes
I actually love to be swallowed. - Posted By gss_000 on 09/04/2007 2:32 PM
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G's the man. - Posted By greyhaze on 11/11/2008 8:58 AM
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Kat_Dawg33
Warrior
291 Posts
USA
| | 04/07/2006 2:10 PM |
| Not 100% sure this is relavant information, but... the 4th place finisher went with 1 HGB and 2 Orc Champs in place of the second HGB to up his activations to 8. In hind sight, he felt going dual HGB would have been better because one hit from a HGB on an Orc Champ forced a MC.
I agree with most of your thoughts, but I'm not sure it means the band isn't tier 1. But your data seems to show this band can't score victory points and MC failure is possible so it isn't tier 1. But if that is the standard we are going by, anything short of HH with Kobold Miners or Marut with Warforged Scout isn't tier 1.
This band will be a very big part of my tournament consideration, to play or play against. It will sure be played enough for us to find out for sure if it's tier 1 or not. . . | |
Champion of "Ember, Monk Champion"
Vindicated Champion of the "Mounted Dragon Knight" | |
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Slade7170
Sneak
123 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 2:33 PM |
| It seems to me a Tier 1 band is any band that you have to figure out how to beat when designing your own warband.
GAS, multiple HH's, HGB x2 + Wardrummer, LE Greatest hits or Chraal x4, Inspiring Marshall + Frenzied (not so much anymore for the last one, but still can be very brutal). Bands that consistently place in the top 4 when piloted by skilled players.
Here are 2 more top finishes reported for dual HGB's. In the other results I looked through where they did not finish in the top 4, no one played dual HGB's. Likely because it is such an *easy* choice. Whenever they play, they win or place high.
April 2nd 2006, Montreal 12 person tourney...1st place.
1 Francis Delisle
Drow Sergeant
Hill Giant Barbarian x2
Orc Wardrummer
Orc Warrior x3
Map: Teleport Temple
Bettendorf IA, 3/28/2006 2nd place (6 players)
2) Kelley Gradert - 2-1 - Drow Sgt, Hill Giant Barbarian x2, Wardrummer, Orc Warrior x3 - Teleport Temple
Respectfully I put forth that it is Tier 1.5 at worst, and I would personally round to 1.0 instead of 2.0.
If I see one in a tourney, I see a very likely top 4 finisher every time, and more likely top 2.
Just my opinion of course. I have been wrong before. :shrugs:
Slade7170
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| Hero of Skirmish
doubtofbuddha
Commander
3371 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 2:36 PM |
| | Also you can add in tournaments from the weekend of March 23rd where both Mike Derry and myself each won tournaments piloting dual Hill Giants. | |
I am not gone. | |
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kgradert13
Sergeant
909 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 2:48 PM |
| But for 1 mistake, my DUal HGB probably wins and goes 3-0 as well.
and that was vs a Marut/Dual Coautl band | |
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DinoBen
Sergeant
412 Posts
Based outta Games of Berkeley, CA
| | 04/07/2006 3:02 PM |
| As Venport mentioned, one problem with Dual HGB is all the attention that it has gotten. To that end, everybody and their therapists have been working on bands that "reliably beat" Dual HGB.
If you're gonna play Dual HGB in a tournament, you better have tons of experience with any and all map options vs. Tier 1 builds. Of course, having that level of experience with any band you play is critical... but the attention brought to the Dual HGB band makes it even more important. ΖD] | |
Champion of all things Athasian
"Don't sing it - Bring it!" | |
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/07/2006 3:14 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by doubtofbuddha: Also you can add in tournaments from the weekend of March 23rd where both Mike Derry and myself each won tournaments piloting dual Hill Giants.
May I ask how many Tier 1 warbands both of you faced during the tournment? I think it would be intresting to review! | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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kgradert13
Sergeant
909 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 3:23 PM |
| Here are some reports with warband composition
http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=18146
http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=17761
Looks like quite a few top level type warbands. | |
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Venport
Sergeant
739 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 3:23 PM |
| Here is the tournametn report for Derry however it's hard to tell what warbands he plaed against because Derry dosen't post good trouament reports very offten. However i know he knows what happend at every tourmanet (with his little back book)
http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=17716 | |
Sacramento DDM http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=16854
New world Project http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20745
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/07/2006 4:35 PM |
| I looked at doubtofbuddah's report because it was clearly written and easy to see the match ups. (thanks doubt!)
Here are the (abbreviated) results.
Doubtofbuddha – Using Option 1
Round 1: A bye for (1-0)
Round 2: vs a new player with “Hill Giant Barbarian, Red Samurai, Orc Wardrummer, 3 Quaggoth Slaves, Timber Wolf, Orc Wardrummer” on the Teleport Temple. Notes indicate not a strong player as was new. Now (2-0)
Round 3: vs. Human Blackguard, 2 Justicators, Helmed Horror, 4 Kobold Miners” on the Mithral Mines. Both of HGB succeeded moral checks, his Drow sergeant made moral when faced with Helmed Horror so good rolls on his part. Now (3-0)
Round 4: vs. “Human Blackguard, Chraal, Duergar Champion, 2 Zakya Rakshasas, Blue, Timber Wolf, Kobold Miner” on the Magma Keep. Hard fought game but lost in the end (3-1)
Round 5: vs. “Marut, Couatl, Justice Archon, Warforged Bodyguard, Standard Bearer, Azer Raider, Timber Wolf” on the Teleport Temple. Well fought game, opponent appeared to make some mistakes and had some critical missed rolls. Now (4-1)
Round 6: vs. “Human Blackguard, Chraal, Duergar Champion, 2 Zakya Rakshasas, Blue, Timber Wolf, Kobold Miner” on the Magma Keep. Tough battle well fought and won in the end (5-1)
Round 1 was a bye and Round 2 was against a newer, less skilled player. The four remaining warbands were strong and doubtofbuddha went 3-1 in them. Yes with skill and luck it can win games. In the qualifers there may be many who could do well with this warband.
But to belabour the point (a bit), as defined above, a Tier 2 warband is: "A strong Warband, but with concept issues, flaws, or just an inherent weakness. Can win a Tournament in the right hands." Tell me doubtofbuddah would not qualify as the "right hands" ;) . However we're not talking just a tournament here - we're also talking about the qualifers and the finals. I still say the Dual HGB warband has some inherent weaknesses.
Finally there have been some very good points raised to date. Everybody is gearing up and readying thier warbands to deal with this threat, and it takes a great deal of skill to successfully pilot a Dual HGB warband. The playing field for the Dual HGB is a rough one ahead.
I lay good odds that the warband that wins the finals will be something unexpected and different - a piece used in a way that hasn't been really exploited before. And I can almost guarantee with the level of play at the finals that the inherent weaknesses within the Dual HGB warband will ensure it does not win (at the very least not without a great deal of luck and a truly masterful player). I wouldn't be too surprised if one warband in the finals was a Dual HGB, but I cant see more than one surviving to that level.
However - at a more local level at a local tournament, were not all builds are tier 1 and not all players are world class players, the dual HGB does remain a threat to be aware of!
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It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
| Hero of Skirmish
doubtofbuddha
Commander
3371 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 4:44 PM |
| Actually, I don't think Foxman is too off the mark. While Hill Giant Barbarians are a strong build, they suffer from one of the problems that IF suffered from last year: they hit their stride too early. Dual Hill Giants are now such a standard threat that people are making sure they build their warbands to deal with them. Many people will make poor decisions in how to deal with the Hill Giants, and skilled players who like the Hill Giant Barbarians are going to still win a qualifier or two, but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up being no more than 15% of the field and end up winning maybe a qualifier or two.
However, its just as likely that the metagame will shift around a bit until HGBs are a good choice again. I think this is a sign of the shift of the competive field in general though. Last year there was a very small range of warbands that could viably win one of the more difficult qualifiers. This year I think there is a much larger range, and the tournament results will probably reflect that. | |
I am not gone. | |
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forkedmoon
Underboss
1305 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 4:54 PM |
| | If looking at how the band performed in tournaments is going to be the factor used to determine its tier 1 status, shouldn't also the results for other bands be considered. In these tournaments where dual HGBs either won placed well or failed what was their competition? How did the triple HHs, Couatl-Marut, quad HHs, GAS, IM-FBs place? I would do some of this analysis but I am currently booked up on responses to the government for my company. My point is to use placements to define the warbands status we must consider how other teams placed as well. Taking second and fifth when other Tier 1s filled out the top would indicate a Tier 1 team. Taking first place when everything else is a fun band doesn't say anything. | |
Champion of Cyclops
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/07/2006 5:18 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by forkedmoon: If looking at how the band performed in tournaments is going to be the factor used to determine its tier 1 status, shouldn't also the results for other bands be considered. ... Taking first place when everything else is a fun band doesn't say anything.
I completely agree with you. If you look up two posts from your own I did just that with an excellent tournement report by doubtofbuddah.
And the Tier of a warband does seem to heavily depend on the other warbands in the metagame that it will face... | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 5:19 PM |
| First, the 5 act Tiefling warband should always have a Hyena, not an Orc Warrior, so it has a tile grabber.
Secondly, the goal with bringing any particular band is to win the tournament. However, all one can do is maximize one's chances to win, never can the band win it for you guaranteed. The example where Pat Lynch got 5th place in the New England Open is a perfect example. Sure, he 'only' got 5th, even though he's the third highest rated player in the world. But... he went 4-1. That's . . . normal. For Pat Lynch to go 5-0 wouldn't have been very surprising, but I wouldn't expect it to be the most likely result, either. 4-1 is normal, and 3-2 would be surprisingly bad. Least that's how I've found it, in my personal experiences. A band that loses twice in 5 or fewer games? I usually ditch. But if it only loses one game out of 5? If anything, that's good, not bad.
The first HGB has a 75% chance of making morale in the Drow Sergeant version of the band. Don't live in fear of failing that morale save! Can a band that's more consistant than HGBs be found? ONLY if it can beat HGBs!!
Let's say highly skilled Player A knows he has a great chance to make top 8 at Nationals, and maybe even win, as long as he can find a band that's consistantly good. HGBs are too inconsistant for him. Players B, C, and D are all just happy to have even made Nationals, and less concerned with consistancy issues. Player A finds this great, consistant band that can has no bad matchups. B, C, and D all use HGBs. Imagine, however, that Player A's band beats HGBs pretty often ... unless the HGB team makes all it's saves. Overall, Player A beats HGBs about 45% of the time. In theory, A's band is more consistant: he will win 85% of the time against a lot of bands, where HGBs will only win 60% of the time. But A keeps on facing HGBs, where the inconsistancy is FAR from one-sided!! A's band is even LESS consistant than the HGBs, because it loses barely more often than not.
HGBs maybe aren't exactly tier one, but it's certain that no other band is tier one, except/unless a band can be found that handles HGBs with a fair degree of consistancy. If such a band can be found, hmm, who knows? Perhaps top players will ditch HGBs quicker than a blink. Although I'm as yet unconvinced, I do know more than one great player that thinks they're too inconsistant, so Foxman isn't the only one - but almost every other band in the game has a fatal flaw . . . losing to this one.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/07/2006 5:28 PM |
| Ha! So Dagni, you're saying its a warband with some weakness, but how the heck do you beat it?
The one thing I didnt touch on in my article was how to exploit the weakenss of this warband. (Which has an impact on how well this warband will do)
Here are the things to consider.
This warband excells at brutal brute beater beatdown. You play their game and they are going to win. Very few bands can even come close to the sheer brutalness of this warband.
So if you cant overpower it what can you do? Play smart.
The game is won on points. Play for points and you can win. Focus on the wardrummer - he cant run and beat his drums at the same time. The HGB HAVE to get in to beat on you - avoid melee! (hard with thier speed I know - but somewhat possible). Anyways I don't want to give away too much more than that at this time... ;) | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 5:30 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by doubtofbuddha
However, its just as likely that the metagame will shift around a bit until HGBs are a good choice again. I think this is a sign of the shift of the competive field in general though. Last year there was a very small range of warbands that could viably win one of the more difficult qualifiers. This year I think there is a much larger range, and the tournament results will probably reflect that.
Eh, well. I think the tournament scene is as healthy as it's ever been. It's been very healthy from Angelfire on. Comparing to last year's qualifiers, true, it's a more varied field. That's a little unfair, as that field wasn't too balanced. Compared to last year's Championships is better, I think. It was a very balanced field, but still there's only going to be so much variety it what is chosen, and in what does well.
In other words, the tournament scene will rarely get quite as balanced as it might seem like it should.
After all, don't expect the best players in the world to *disagree* on what the best band is much more than they did in last year's Championships, in which, IIRC, CE Red Sam style bands were half the field, Chraals another 25-30% and LSD, Justice Archon, and various less common bands (Archmage, Ulmo, etc) made up the rest.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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frogrodeo
Sergeant
706 Posts
| | 04/07/2006 6:13 PM |
| IMO HGBx2 is a Tier 1 concept. Sure, against other current Tier 1 bands there are close match-ups, but none that are so far lopsided that I would consider it a bad match-up/auto-loss.
Also, I would argue that there are no HUGE overall weakness. It is simple to overcome the tilegrabber speed issue by having an HGB take tile on round 1, and move your planned tile grabber figure in to get points on round 2. Also, the HGB is fast enough and deadly enough to take out the other common tile grabbers from ALL factions with relative ease. Timberwolf/WF Scout/Kobold Miner... all fall quickly vs a HGB. Against bands that run weak tile grabber figures, this can quickly lead to an activation advantage for the HGB side. You could argue that any hit on a tilegrabber is one less on a main hitter... but I would argue that it is actually more beneficial to the HGB player - get furious spirit done with early on, stop enemy tile points, and gain an activation advantage - all great to keep things in the HGB favor and set them up better for the eventual main confrontation.
I think HGBx2 is a strong band, definitely capable of taking a tournament - as many people have shown over the past few weeks. It is definitely something people will have to consider if they want a chance to win tournaments in the current atmosphere. | |
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Lord_rock
Underboss
2000 Posts
Portland OR
| | 04/08/2006 1:58 AM |
| | Haven't faced dual hillgiant barbs but one at at time has been a tough enough fight...it is really hard to out beat them...impossible really...but the real kicker is how do you not go toe to toe with them and still have a chance to win...only 44 pts left over for you to go after...speed 10 makes sure you can't really avoid them...its really beater point denial...i don't have the answer yet...but i do have one idea that is completly untested against them...if it pans out i'll let you know... | |
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Shadow_Fox
Underboss
1751 Posts
Litchfield, MN
| | 04/08/2006 6:26 AM |
| I think anytime you have to say "I need to be able to beat Warband X to win" that automaticly makes Warband X "Top Tier". If Dual Hill Giant Barbarians arent Tier 1, then the other "top tier" bands arent either.
Personally, Im of the opinion that the game is the closest to rock-paper-scissors than it has ever been. Especially so if you see the game as not currently having a Tier 1 and that qualifiers will be a rock-paper-scissors battle of the "Top Tier" warbands. What bands show up and what bands get paired against each other.
There are enough skilled players across the country that the top tier bands should be known, though not widely discussed due to the qualifier season swiftly approaching. Only time will tell what these players feel gives them the greatest chances of winning it all.
What it all really boils down to is if the current meta favors "risky" or "conservative" play. This will be reflected in the top 4's in the comming months. | |
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Shadow_Fox
Underboss
1751 Posts
Litchfield, MN
| | 04/08/2006 7:02 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Foxman
In conclusion, the Dual Hill Giant Barbarian warband CAN do well, but there is a large element of luck and skill that needs to be involved. There is too much variance in controlling initiative and activations, to say that it WILL do well consistently.
Isnt this business as usual for CE? It wasnt too long ago people were saying that Ogre Ravagers dont care about high AC because of their sheer damage output, hp advantage, and Tiefling Captain synergy. All the Hill Giant Barbarian is is a newer and better (IMO) Ogre Ravager. While there are many fearless units in the meta currently, even a fearless unit has to be worried about getting gang beat by dual HGBs. Heck, just one is scarry.
Hitting high ACs and making morale saves have always been the weak points for CE. But now more then ever CE can work to overcome these weaknesses. How are these not Tier 1 ingredients?
quote:
Originally posted by Foxman
I have been going over tournament reports looking at how Dual HGB’s performed & from my own personal experiences. I feel that although powerful in it’s own right, this warband is not strong enough to be considered a Tier 1 warband.
Perhaps for your local metagame this is a sound theory. But if you plan on competing in the national metagame, you NEED to be prepared to face, and beat, dual HGB bands. | |
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Avatar of the Tank
Newtoncain
Commander
2985 Posts
Land of 10,000 taxes
| | 04/08/2006 7:40 AM |
| | Fight fire w/ Fire | |
They just don't know what's good in life...Conan, tell them what is good in life.
To rip the boosters. To count the minis spilled out before you, and to hear the indifference of the women... | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10429 Posts
United States
| | 04/08/2006 8:37 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Dagni
A band that loses twice in 5 or fewer games? I usually ditch. But if it only loses one game out of 5? If anything, that's good, not bad.
There's not a lot of wiggle room betweeen 3-2 and 4-1. What if there were 7 rounds of Swiss? Would 5-2 be okay? Or is your position that one loss is okay (provided we're not talking only three games), but more than one loss is not? I'm guessing you're not saying that, I'm guessing you're saying that a certain winning percentage is okay (and, if 4-1 is it, then 80% is good).
Also, to Foxman, first, thanks for the analysis and great thread. Second, there have been a lot of posts from quite good players where they've said something like "If I were to bring HGB to the qualifiers, and I'm not going to, then..." The fact that so many tier-1 players are choosing other bands makes me think that there's more to look for.
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Wrackspawn
ChristopherGroves
Warlord
6093 Posts
| | 04/08/2006 8:42 AM |
| So, on the "four pillars" concept I spoke about in the other thread ... if you can't beat the following with your band at a major event, you need to reconsider what you're doing.
Multi-Gith Monks (4)
Multi-Chraals (4)
Multi-Helmed horrors (4)
Dual-Hill Giant Barbarians
You have to be able to handle these. The 2x HGBs have a tremendous damage output, etc. If you can't, you're not arming yourself to win a tournament.
That said, I still don't like most of the HGB builds I've seen thus far. Honestly, my inclination would be to run the 5 activation version w/ the Tiefling and the Wardrummer because the key rolls for the HGBs are so few in number. | |
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XAos
Underboss
2395 Posts
London
| | 04/08/2006 9:54 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Foxman
- Tier 2: A strong Warband, but with concept issues, flaws, or just an inherent weakness. Can win a Tournament in the right hands.
Mostly a good analysis, but I'll disagree with a couple of points.
1) "Tier-2"; symantic definition of tier-2 is not that it's a weak warband, needing good tactical play (I think thats "Tier-2" from the MTG metagame). But that it's very strong against some Tier-1 warbands at the expense of being weak against others. If you want to use the phrase Tier-2 to describe a warband thats weak across the board. Thats up to you. Personally I'll call that Tier-3.[)]
quote:
Originally posted by Foxman
Also very few competitive warbands run with this low of a commander rating.
That was pre-wardrums, with no speed:2 rule, many Tier-1 warbands, are effective on any map. So they can use the points that other warbands spend on a commander for an additional beatstik. | |
Don't worry about the current metagame. It doesn't matter if it's ugly, bad, or the best ever. In 2 years time, set rotation will ban everything. | |
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Shadow_Fox
Underboss
1751 Posts
Litchfield, MN
| | 04/08/2006 3:09 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Vrecknidj
Also, to Foxman, first, thanks for the analysis and great thread. Second, there have been a lot of posts from quite good players where they've said something like "If I were to bring HGB to the qualifiers, and I'm not going to, then..." The fact that so many tier-1 players are choosing other bands makes me think that there's more to look for.
I think the reason we are seeing this is that the better players realize that the HGBs rely on making certain key dice rolls to win. Namely morale saves, special ability saves (for example, stun locking vs GAS) and hitting their targets AC consistantly. The game is all about maximizing your chances to win and the hill giants can have random results.
Its still early in the season and people are trying to find the most consistantly winning warbands. | |
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Shadow_Fox
Underboss
1751 Posts
Litchfield, MN
| | 04/08/2006 3:20 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by ChristopherGroves
You have to be able to handle these. The 2x HGBs have a tremendous damage output, etc. If you can't, you're not arming yourself to win a tournament.
Chris hit the nail right on the head here. Regardless of wheather you think HGBs are worthy to be called Tier 1 or not, you have to be prepared for their sheer damage output. If your not, be prepared for some "upset" losses.
quote:
Originally posted by ChristopherGroves
That said, I still don't like most of the HGB builds I've seen thus far. Honestly, my inclination would be to run the 5 activation version w/ the Tiefling and the Wardrummer because the key rolls for the HGBs are so few in number.
You might not be too far off the mark here, Chris. While a HGB band might have fewer activations, those activations have such an impact on the game that being down 3 at the start might not matter. HGBs have the ability to even out activations very quickly, and not just by killing fodder units either.
This situation brings to mind an article I wrote a while ago about activation number vs activation efficiency in relation to dual LRD builds. The concepts are still the same IMO and even more favorable for the titan band now that the figure limit has been reduced to 8.
http://www.3rdedition.org/merricb/strategy/2004/09/activation-number-vs-activation.htm | |
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