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Shadow_Fox
Underboss
1751 Posts
    
Litchfield, MN
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10446 Posts
United States
| | 04/09/2006 11:26 AM |
| The last few posts serve to strengthen my view stated earlier: when someone compiles all the '06 top-4 bands from all the qualifiers, we'll see that there are more Helmed Horrors than players (i.e. if there are 20 qualifiers, then there will be 80 top-4 finishers, and of all those bands, I'm betting there will be 81 or more Helmed Horrors in the final figure count).
Feel free, of course, to disagree. [)]
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Shadow_Fox
Underboss
1751 Posts
Litchfield, MN
| | 04/09/2006 1:40 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Shadow_Fox
The info trickling in from the Cali Open indicates that there wasnt a single HGB in the top 5. I cant wait to see some tournement reports so we can see if people either decided not to field them or they just got beat.
It would appear that the info that came in early this morning was incorrect. A dual HGB band got 3rd. Out of 29 participants, only 10 warbands have been revealed so far and 4 of them were dual HGB bands.
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Lord_rock
Underboss
2023 Posts
Portland OR
| | 04/09/2006 4:34 PM |
| So since we're all so focused on "gotta beat HGB" what is the best figure to counter them??? I also feel like map selection could be huge huge huge in tackling the big guys...teleport map seems to favor them heavily...as does broken demon gate and drow outpost where they can bottleneck and conquer quickly...
and just for fun...who thinks wihtout the wardrummer dual HGB would show up as much as it does??? wardrummer seems the issue here in a lot of cases not HGB... | |
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DrX
Sergeant
408 Posts
| | 04/09/2006 4:36 PM |
| Well, I played Dual Hill Giant in yesterday's Cali Open. I used a Tiefling Captain, Cursed Spirit, and 4xOWs on the Teleport Temple. In practicing with the band, I was doing consistently well playing it very aggressively, and hoping to make saves. As I recall (it's all still a blur) each of my losses was mainly due to a Hill Giant routing. I went 1-2 with it in the main tourney before washing out to secondary one and switching to Gith Monks.
Smyrin played the exact same band and came in 3rd/4th. Fenris played the 5 activation one with a Wardrummer and didn't win a game with it, though he admitted to not having practiced much - if at all - with it.
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HW List: http://www.maxminis.com/hwlist.asp?user=DrX
References: http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=12409
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| The Defenestrator
AesophDarkfable
Warlord
5628 Posts
| | 04/09/2006 7:24 PM |
| I think the term Tier 1 and 2 are reaching a point of mootness. They tend to end up meaning little. If the classic definition is no bad matchups, thats impossible due to spoiler bands. If you go with a more conservative definition of no bad match ups from fellow tier 1 bands it seems more valid a definition, but for this you must define what is a bad match up? Wins less than 50% of the time against?
I choose not to care what Tier dual HGB is, I just know that I have to take it into consideration when building a band. It will be there, it hits, it hurts. Tier 1, 2, 3, Q, Z, Bizzaro, etc, it really is semantics. Just plan for it. It will show. | |
Im out- find me on Hordelings if you want to chat. | |
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nedleeds
Warrior
240 Posts
| | 04/09/2006 9:21 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Lord_rock
So since we're all so focused on "gotta beat HGB" what is the best figure to counter them???
Buffed Marut + 2 Couatl. But that dies to something else. The great circle of pain. | |
Champion of Zarak - Evil Half-Orc Assassin | |
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Wrackspawn
ChristopherGroves
Warlord
6093 Posts
| | 04/09/2006 9:49 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Vrecknidj
The last few posts serve to strengthen my view stated earlier: when someone compiles all the '06 top-4 bands from all the qualifiers, we'll see that there are more Helmed Horrors than players (i.e. if there are 20 qualifiers, then there will be 80 top-4 finishers, and of all those bands, I'm betting there will be 81 or more Helmed Horrors in the final figure count).
Feel free, of course, to disagree. [)]
Dave
And thus the guantlet is thrown ... [)]
Alright Dave, we need to turn this into a friendly wager somehow. Something minor, but let's get it on the books! | |
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Wrackspawn
ChristopherGroves
Warlord
6093 Posts
| | 04/09/2006 9:52 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by DrX
Well, I played Dual Hill Giant in yesterday's Cali Open. I used a Tiefling Captain, Cursed Spirit, and 4xOWs on the Teleport Temple. In practicing with the band, I was doing consistently well playing it very aggressively, and hoping to make saves. As I recall (it's all still a blur) each of my losses was mainly due to a Hill Giant routing. I went 1-2 with it in the main tourney before washing out to secondary one and switching to Gith Monks.
Smyrin played the exact same band and came in 3rd/4th. Fenris played the 5 activation one with a Wardrummer and didn't win a game with it, though he admitted to not having practiced much - if at all - with it.
And this is why as strong as they are I'm not comfortable with dual HGBs. I ran LSD for a while last year and it was nerve-wracking. You have to go into each game counting on not failing morale w/ the LSD. Luckily, with the LSD you can make that a 5% chance pretty easily. I just don't like "winning the event" so dependenent on so few rolls, but that's me.
smyrin, you should note, is a long time LSD player and so I'd bet he's more comfortable with running larger point-cost creatures. | |
Triangle DDM Skirmish Group | My Email | 45-ish trades and counting | Stuff for Trade
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 3:45 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by nedleeds
quote:
Originally posted by Lord_rock
So since we're all so focused on "gotta beat HGB" what is the best figure to counter them???
Buffed Marut + 2 Couatl. But that dies to something else. The great circle of pain.
No it doesn't. IF Marut/2 Couatl can beat HGBs, it can easily handle the rest of the current metagame. Easily. If it can handle HGBs, then I'd say it's far and away the best band right now. Sure, there might be spoiler bands hand-crafted to beat that band that would work, but until it gets popular that's not a concern.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 3:55 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Vrecknidj
quote:
Originally posted by Dagni
A band that loses twice in 5 or fewer games? I usually ditch. But if it only loses one game out of 5? If anything, that's good, not bad.
There's not a lot of wiggle room betweeen 3-2 and 4-1. What if there were 7 rounds of Swiss? Would 5-2 be okay? Or is your position that one loss is okay (provided we're not talking only three games), but more than one loss is not? I'm guessing you're not saying that, I'm guessing you're saying that a certain winning percentage is okay (and, if 4-1 is it, then 80% is good).
Yeah, basically after playing as much as I have, my benchmark is that I can't ever expect better than 67%, as in 2-1 or 4-2, because anything can happen. 3-2 is borderline, so it might depend on exactly what happened, but generally I'd expect to be disapointed in a lot more than my luck if I did so 'bad'. Another decent benchmark is if you were to look at how rarely I've missed the cut to top X in DDM tourneys. It's gotta be more than just good luck. Note that while Pat was fifth, as in not top four, really a tournament with more than 20 players is supposed to cut to top 8 (or do like the qualifiers, perhaps, and play an extra round of swiss, then cut to top 4.)
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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Runelord151
Underboss
1203 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 9:32 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Foxman
quote:
Originally posted by ChristopherGroves: Check the NE open results in the tournaments forum ... notice how some of the top HGB bands didn't use the Wardrummer ... consider those as well in your analysis.
I did review that tournement report before I wrote this article. Here are the relevent results:
2nd Place: Option 2
5th Place: Option 3 - but without the wardrummer
8th Place: Option 2 (varation) replaces the Orc Warrior for a Hyena - good for tile grabber!
24th Place: Option 1 - short 1 orc warrior
There were only 4 Dual HGB warbands (out of 28) - only 1 of those 4 did not have a wardrummer.
FYI - the 24th place had 3 orc warriors (the report is in error!) , not that it matters much.... | | | |
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lynchpt
Sergeant
930 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 9:33 AM |
| I'll chime in here with voting for dual HGB being tier 1. They can beat most other top bands 50% or more of the time. Quad Chraals can be tough on Outpost, but there is some evidence that the Giants have the advantage on Teleport Temple. Aspect of Moradin builds are serious trouble for the HGBs, but we're still waiting to see if they can prove themsleves a top band in their own right.
Finishing 5th out of 29 doesn't make me doubt the credentials of the HGBs. We run our Opens 5 rounds straight Swiss so that people can get back to their home states and still have a Saturday evening left - we don't have the prizes to subject people to extra rounds or playoffs. As Robert points out, in a Qualifer, I would have had another round to get into the playoffs. As he also points out, it's unrealistic to "expect" to go undefeated at any tournament with some quality and depth - there are just too many variables. I try to set my goals at not losing more than one game in Swiss rounds, and judge the band/myself based on that.
When Swiss rounds are all that are played, the randomness of who you play when is a decisive factor (just speaking of the person here and leaving aside band matchups). In the recent NE Open, I played Pat Ellis in round 2. In my opinion even before the tournament started he was certainly one of the top 4 players so, in a sense, I got a bit of an unlucky draw facing him in round 2. There were 12 other 1-0s I could have faced, with most of them being not as strong. Losing to Pat in round 2 versus winning a round 2 matchup and losing to Pat in round 3 is probably the difference between me finishing 4th versus 5th. It would be silly to feel better or worse about my play/the band based on such a subtle difference. Over time, the absolute record of a band should be a better indicator of its capability than finishing positions.
Note that I didn't say I think the HGBs are the best tier 1 band [:)].
Pat Lynch | |
Dreamblade Rules Advisor | |
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kgradert13
Sergeant
909 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 9:38 AM |
| ALso note that the HGB build that got 3rd at the SoCal event was in 1st going into the single elimination portion.
I know one is going to say those were all "fun" bands and average players at the event right? [:)] | |
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/10/2006 12:38 PM |
| So I put my money where my mouth is and run a dual HGB in a local tournment.
See the gory details here: http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=18430
End results - me 2-2. I know I'm not a top pilot, and I made a couple of mistakes, but I'm still a farily good stratigist.
However everything I saw reinforced my orginal feelings about this warband.
Final Thoughts:
- This warband lives and dies on the moral save. You lose far too much of your warband on a single moral save. Too much varience and 'luck' required. I don't think this warband is a tier 1 because it relies far too much on luck and not enough on consistancy.
- Anybody who makes it through the qualifers with this warband is not only skilled, but also very lucky!
- Not high enough to hit (at the very least on the second attack) and non-magic damage - few left over points means unable to compinsate with tech.
- Counters for this warband. Large bases (reduces hit/damage) and the wardrummer. Serious, CE vs. CE is rough! The wardrumer does very little for you in this format. The best anti-HGB warband is another warband with a wardrumer. Ariamil for LG can neuter this warband as well.
- On most maps the Tiefling Capt/hyena version is likely to do better, EXCEPT for the telport map where you NEED control of teleporters. | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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PatEllis15
Commander
4463 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 1:04 PM |
| quote:
When Swiss rounds are all that are played, the randomness of who you play when is a decisive factor (just speaking of the person here and leaving aside band matchups). In the recent NE Open, I played Pat Ellis in round 2. In my opinion even before the tournament started he was certainly one of the top 4 players so, in a sense, I got a bit of an unlucky draw facing him in round 2. There were 12 other 1-0s I could have faced, with most of them being not as strong. Losing to Pat in round 2 versus winning a round 2 matchup and losing to Pat in round 3 is probably the difference between me finishing 4th versus 5th. It would be silly to feel better or worse about my play/the band based on such a subtle difference. Over time, the absolute record of a band should be a better indicator of its capability than finishing positions.
In fairness as well, Pat had HORRIBLE luck of the dice. Forget the Morale check, he rolled a 3 on the first HGB, and you and live and die by teh sword.
But the other HGB missed 4 attacks on GCR's and the 1/2 Ogre Barbarian. I was in a pretty good position to win, but fully expected each of those misses to be a hit, and had Pat hit, it is just as likely that I'd have been the one walking away 1-1....
As Chris Groves Described them, I think they are one of the pillar's,and you DO have to think through how your going to deal with them when preparing for a tourney.
Pat E | |
"Games evolve. Otherwise we'd still be pushing rocks around the dirt. What do you think the cavemen said when some dude showed up with sticks?" - Chairman7w | |
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/10/2006 2:42 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by kgradert13:
ALso note that the HGB build that got 3rd at the SoCal event was in 1st going into the single elimination portion. I know one is going to say those were all "fun" bands and average players at the event right? [:)]
Well I think the SoCal event also proves my point...
First a link to the thread: California Open (SoCal) http://boards1.wizards.com/showthread.php?t=619065
quote:
Concepts:
Dual Hill Giant Barbarians – 8 (third)
Aspect of Moradin/Marut – 3
3+ Chraals – 2 (First)
Justice Archons – 2
Helmed Horror/Tech – 2 (Second)
Helmed Horror – 1
LE Beater – 1
CE Beater – 1
Others – 9 (Third)
Third: Sven Myrin (smyrin) – CE (8/200):
Tiefling Captain (21)
Hill Giant Barbarian x2 (156)
Cursed Spirit (11)
Orc Warrior x4 (12)
Map: Teleport Temple
Thoughts:
Out of 29 warbands 8 were dual HGB's (27.6%). Given the sheer numbers of this warband, for one of to NOT end up in the top 4 would have been a suprise.
I think it is "possible" to win a tournemnt using dual HGB's, but it requires a lot of luck. I would be very supprised if the Dual HGB never won one. But its not consistant enough!
I like Sven's warband - it was an Option 3 warband - dropping the wardrumer and counting on the Tiefling Captian for saves (Under command - Moral Save of 12, 35% chance of failing). Losing your 1/2 your warband is a 35% risk... Gutsy but it can pay off. A skilled pilot can reduce the exposure to risk and maximize the effectiveness of these pieces - but cant remove the risk... | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
| Hero of Skirmish
doubtofbuddha
Commander
3371 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 2:53 PM |
| | All warbands have risk. Its just a matter of how much that risk is rewarded by your warband. Hill Giant Barbarians have a pretty effective risk/reward ratio. Sure you aren't always going to be hitting with their attacks, but when you do hit it is pretty effective. Yes, they are are susceptible to luck, but all warbands are subject to the whims of luck. Granted some pieces are less susceptible then others, but they rarely have the hit points or damage potential that hill giant barbarians bring to the table. | |
I am not gone. | |
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sienar
Sergeant
640 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 2:54 PM |
| I would agree that a small amount of bad luck can make dual-Hill Giant Barbarians go south real quick. The warband in of itself has little in bad match-ups, but this tendency makes me put it into the Tier 1.5 - 2 arena.
I think most of us agree, though, if you aren't prepared to face them with your warband choice, you could be in for a *very* quick spanking by a couple of 8' spiked clubs.
That's more what the pillar concept is, I think. The pillars themselves don't need to be Tier 1 bands, but if you can't topple them, you might want to rethink your warband.
All of that being said, I fully expect to see plenty of top 4 placements in the Qualifiers by HGB bands, more so single than dual, but I would not be surprised at all to see a dual take a Qualifier. | |
[http://www.hordelings.com/frontend/profiles/profile.php?user_id=22] | |
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sienar
Sergeant
640 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 3:01 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Foxman
Thoughts:
Out of 29 warbands 8 were dual HGB's (27.6%). Given the sheer numbers of this warband, for one of to NOT end up in the top 4 would have been a suprise.
I think it is "possible" to win a tournemnt using dual HGB's, but it requires a lot of luck. I would be very supprised if the Dual HGB never won one. But its not consistant enough!
That would only be true if the warband was any good in the first place. If 25 out of 29 people showed up with 8x Kobold Miner denial bands, I wholly expect 0 of them to make top 4.
It's not that HGB's need good luck. Having titan type pieces makes you more susceptible to bad luck. You lose a bigger investment of your warband to a sinle roll. And having odds catch up to you, really. With Wardrummer and Sergeant, you have a 20% chance of failing morale. Eventually one will fail morale, and 4% of the time 2 morales will be failed. We all know how fast the buggers are. It's hard to get themn to a fighting location that keeps them from going off on the first failed morale. | |
[http://www.hordelings.com/frontend/profiles/profile.php?user_id=22] | |
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Gunthar
Commander
2938 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 3:03 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Foxman
- Anybody who makes it through the qualifers with this warband is not only skilled, but also very lucky!
It's this way with ANY warband, especially at big tournaments. So many games come down to one roll of the D20.
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Champion of Prit(Wemic vindication is here)
Minneapolis/St. Paul area
Completed trades: Aspect of Cheese (Love that moniker), Tickparasite, Elderthing, Lalato, Sodj, Grimoire, SmilinIrish, Zeb, RWarehall,Link, wikkawikkawa, Auramancer, Rommers, HK, Ivid5,Qillan_dvra, Puggins, Arcabius, Ironfist Boulderbender, Robby, Corim Danex, monster_slayer, DNDJUNKIE, Kelemvor, Krush, ckissee, Massawyrm, hockey fan, Wish, Uninspiring Lieutenant, vtloon x2, Vrecknidj, Darthpoke, WakeXX, AnarionZell, lycusmike, papabear5 and umpteen local trades with board members
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Foxman
Sergeant
417 Posts
Calgary, AB, Canada
| | 04/10/2006 3:18 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by sienar
quote:
Originally posted by Foxman
Thoughts:
Out of 29 warbands 8 were dual HGB's (27.6%). Given the sheer numbers of this warband, for one of to NOT end up in the top 4 would have been a suprise.
I think it is "possible" to win a tournemnt using dual HGB's, but it requires a lot of luck. I would be very supprised if the Dual HGB never won one. But its not consistant enough!
That would only be true if the warband was any good in the first place. If 25 out of 29 people showed up with 8x Kobold Miner denial bands, I wholly expect 0 of them to make top 4.
Ha! I'm not saying HGB are useless. I think that the figure itself is a tier 1 piece! Its just that dual HGB's are a tier 1.5 warbands not tier 3 (like kobolds [)]) | |
It would be very unlikely for unlikely events not to occur.
- J. A. Paulos "Innumeracy" | |
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sienar
Sergeant
640 Posts
| | 04/10/2006 3:35 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Foxman
Its just that dual HGB's are a tier 1.5 warbands not tier 3 (like kobolds [)])
[:0
You'd assign *any* Tier to 8x Kobold Miner bands? I give them Tier Tray over Tier Three, as in stay in the tray. | |
[http://www.hordelings.com/frontend/profiles/profile.php?user_id=22] | |
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doranur
Warrior
180 Posts
| | 04/11/2006 2:04 AM |
| i disagree with the analysis of the cali open qualifier data, from a first hand perspective. yes, there were tons of hgb's there, and we in general sucked it up. but on the flip side, hgb is a rough band to run, the timing is difficult, especially with the wardrummer versions. many of us running hgb's didn't have any buisness running them given our lack of experience with the band, and while i agree that it's luck dependant, winning a major is luck dependant.
the best way to judge data is after the cut, not who placed first. but here's a bit of a different perspective on hgb's. hgb's formed less than 1/3 of the total field at the cali open, but more than a quarter. 1/4 of the bands in the top 4 were hgb's. 1/4 of the bands in the top 8 were hgb's. seems pretty normal to me, and i'd be comfortable (although it's highly unlikely for me to play them again, haven't quite made my decision on my qualifier band yet) taking hgb's to a qualifier and expecting a reasonable chance to qualify. | |
-Doranur
join the revolution! down with round/turn fascism! viva la resistance! | |
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XAos
Underboss
2403 Posts
London
| | 04/11/2006 6:20 AM |
| quote:
Originally posted by sienar
It's not that HGB's need good luck. Having titan type pieces makes you more susceptible to bad luck. You lose a bigger investment of your warband to a sinle roll. And having odds catch up to you, really. With Wardrummer and Sergeant, you have a 20% chance of failing morale. Eventually one will fail morale, and 4% of the time 2 morales will be failed. We all know how fast the buggers are. It's hard to get themn to a fighting location that keeps them from going off on the first failed morale.
I agree, those rout probabilities are playable for single games. But in a major tournament they virtually guarentee you loose a couple of the games.
If a third of all the players use Dual-HGB, then one of them may get lucky and have no routs. But basically the warband loosess by bad-luck. And no amount of skillfull tactics can prevent it.
My estimate of Dual-HGB is that because of potential bad batchups (War Priest of Moradin) it's at best a weak tier-1.5
But it's actually Tier-2, not from a bad matchup to another warband. But because of a "bad match-up" to it's own rout checks. | |
Don't worry about the current metagame. It doesn't matter if it's ugly, bad, or the best ever. In 2 years time, set rotation will ban everything. | |
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