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Subject: Qualifier Difficulty

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04/11/2006 4:02 PM  
Well. I am going to be conterversial here and include my own list.

Most Difficult Qualifiers
Milford, MA
Niles, IL
Santa Clara, CA
Mesa, AZ (high expected So Cal turnout.)
London, Europe
Montreal, QC

Difficult Qualifiers
Yspilanti, MI
Toronto, ON
Saint Louis Park, MN
Glen Burnie, MD
Clermont, FL
Pittsburg, PA
Colorado Springs, CO

Less Difficult Qualifiers
West Valley City, UT (Colorado and CA attendence can push this up.)
Richmond, KY
Edmonton, AB
Northfield, NJ
Garland, TX
Twin Falls, ID
Buford, GA
Mount Vernon, WA
Syracuse, NY

Note, this is based on my own perception of their respective tournament scenes, how the local players have ended up doing at major tournaments, and the quality of their contributions on the boards. Some of this may be unfair, but I don't really see any other way to analyze difficulty. [:P]

Comments?

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The Fortress of Solitude

04/11/2006 4:08 PM  
Some might find this controversial, but I don't. I'm from the northwest (WA qualifier), and I know we're not as strong as the northeast and SoCal.

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04/11/2006 4:11 PM  
I might consider Montreal for the top list, if only due to the sheer numbers of people they have showing up. 30-40 people for a regular tournament makes me wonder how many will show at a qualifier.

And of course, the FL qualifier will have 3 of the ALL DAY crew there I'm sure, unless they are happy to squeeze in via rank. Medusa's will ruin you, all day.


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Manchester, England

04/11/2006 4:13 PM  
I'd class the European one as the Most Difficult one also, based on those I've played in person, and on the Internet. Adkainen (not sure...), Janos M, XAos and Rondom all will be in the game there and are known on these boards. The Italians are all of very high standard and will take a lot of skill in beating. Gloom_, Orcmonk, One_Wing and Froffenhoffer are also in with a very good chance. The Czech contingent is very likely to be extremely strong based on what I've read of their DDM tournaments - their former Soviet influence, mathematical analysis and Chess skills taught from an early age at school is likely to show in their gaming style and skill. Of course - the German efficiency and excellent education will be there for all to experience. Anyone online who has played Gruumsh will also know that he is in the running. And the long list of others that I've had the pleasure of playing in person and online that I class as excellent players... Heck - it's going to be Vive Europeville.

I'd, incidentally, raise Montreal up one classification based on the few I've played from there.

One of these days WoTC will update their tournament page when I'm in the top 5... they never seem to do when I'm in that bracket :(
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Hero of Skirmish
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04/11/2006 4:14 PM  
I am not even considering how difficult they will make the tournament. However, I am basing this both on the fact that we will have two previous Top 8 players present as well as the relative skill levels of the players I compete with locally vs. the ones I compete with on a more international level.

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04/11/2006 4:18 PM  
This topic is too subjective for me to form an opinion. Any qualifier will be difficult for me.
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04/11/2006 4:22 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by alepulp
Heck - it's going to be Vive Europeville.



Pshaw, everyone knows Europe doesn't matter! Its on the other side of the ocean. [)]

I will add it to the list.

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04/11/2006 4:22 PM  
I'd go with the idea that you need at least 4 strong local contenders (or confirmed invaders) to qualify a Qualifier as difficult, probably 6-8+ for Most Difficult . The idea here is not to figure out the best chance of winning, it is the best chance of making top 4. In other words, if the two best players in the world are at a Qualifier, but the rest of the players are total scrubs, it would be an 'easy' qualifier.

I would say we have 5-8 in CO that have a reasonable chance to win (not all may show up - some are rather content just to stay in the local scene). That would not include invaders.

Montreal seems to have 2-4 strong contenders, along with a great number of good players (I say 2-4, because there does seem to be a small list who tend to win).

We all know CA is a hotbed of strong players.

I wouldn't disagree with list much. A couple could float up or down one. I'd actually probably place CO in Difficult more than Most Difficult, and Montreal and FL are in the same boat to me, floating between Difficult and Most Difficult.

As I said in the other thread, these are in a relative scalem not an absolute scale. Being 'Less Difficult' does not necessarily make one 'Easy'.

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04/11/2006 4:27 PM  
Well considering, you're expertise in the Colorado scene I will push it down to Difficult. I would be tempted to put Florida in Most Difficult, but that would smack a bit of egotism. I am also in no way certain that FL will be anywhere near as difficult as the Milford, Niles, or Santa Clara qualifiers. Maybe next year...

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04/11/2006 4:39 PM  
Very subjective, but if we frame teh question properly, I think we can make some conclusions.

The question I would ask is this: "As a "very good" local player, who hasn't played competitively before, which qualifier's would I find the "most difficult" to qualify at (not win). Which qualifiers would be "difficult", and which would give me my best chance to qualify (least difficult)".

So, how do we determine the answer to that question? The Size of the field has an impact. THe Skill set of the player expected to attend has an impact.

You can go look at my "Your Qualifier Schedule" to get a sense for who is going where.


From my perspective, I would probably say that Milford, MA is in the difficult category from a player skill perspective. Pat Lynch may not play. There would therefore only be 2 players close to teh top 100 globally in attendance (I'm currently ranked 140). However, Milford probably keep's a "most Difficult" rating because it will have a very large turnout. 28 for a regional event probably translates into 40+ (my money is on 50...) for the qualifier...

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04/11/2006 4:41 PM  
I like seeing the list but I wouldn't put much faith in it. There are plenty of good players out there who are not on the tournament scene and who also do not post on MaxMinis. I know there is a handful of really strong players in Syracuse and a few groups of guys from anywhere from Buffalo to Albany who have been attending our Pre/Release events are very strong and will be attending Syracuse as well. I'm sure a lot of the places that have not had a Qualifier yet may have strong local, and yet unknown, power players.

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04/11/2006 4:42 PM  
Right. I am not really expecting a particularly large turn out for Florida (probably in the mid-20s to 30) which would also keep the difficulty down, despite the skill level of many of the participants.

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04/11/2006 4:43 PM  
Personally I think Montreal should probably be on the 'most difficult' list; not only do they have strong players, but they will have a GIGANTIC turnout, which can't help but lower any one player's individual chances - more rounds played is more chances to have that one game where the dice totally go south on you, more chances to get a bad matchup, etc.

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04/11/2006 4:47 PM  
I'm looking forward to playing with the Fort Collins and Denver contingents. I think those guys are stronger than what we're typically used to in Colorado Springs, so it may be a bit of a wake-up call for some of us. Not that we're going to roll over and die, however! We'll give you northerners a run for your money!

All in all I expect a nice competitive tournament, and I definitely agree with where Jesse put us in the pecking order.

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04/11/2006 5:09 PM  
Man, that's a tough question to ask. The way it's framed, it's just asking to "insult" someone's qualifier. Who out there is going to admit they went to a weak competition at a "weak" qualifier?

I don't really see any value to this question, except to hurt folks feelings and stir up the hornet's nest, at least not the way it's currently framed. As is, it sounds almost like an excuse to devalue some folks local metagames. Frown.

Don't engage in that "size = difficult" fallacy either.

If Pat Lynch, Rob Hatch, Jesse Dean, and Brad Shugg all got together to play at a "secret" qualifier with just the 4 of them, would we dismiss it as "weak" because they only had 4 people. Piece of cake right, how much "easier" could the competition get.

Tell ya what, the Jersey qualfier the first year (the first qualifier held, ever) only had 10 people at it. I'd say they represented themselves rather well despite their small numbers. [:D]

If you want a better measuring stick of the strength of local scenes, I'd look at their GenCon records. GenCon performance against the national scene is probably a much better indicator of strength than random subjective judgment. At least if you're going to try and interpret that at all.

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04/11/2006 5:15 PM  
Well, if there was a secret 4 person qualifier with that crowd, I know who would end up in 4th. [)]

However, I do get your point which is why I said it was based on my own perceptions and avoid words like "easy" and "weak."

All of the Qualifiers I mentioned as Most Difficult, are in that category in part because of how well their expected participants have done well at previous Championships.

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04/11/2006 5:19 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Kiddoc

If Pat Lynch, Rob Hatch, Jesse Dean, and Brad Shugg all got together to play at a "secret" qualifier with just the 4 of them, would we dismiss it as "weak" because they only had 4 people. Piece of cake right, how much "easier" could the competition get.

That would be an easy qualifier. With only 4 people, everybody qualifies. It doesn't get easier than that. Any one of those guys could show up with a pair of Kobold Miners and .2 BAC and still get an invite to the Championships.

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04/11/2006 5:42 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Kiddoc

I don't really see any value to this question, except to hurt folks feelings and stir up the hornet's nest, at least not the way it's currently framed. As is, it sounds almost like an excuse to devalue some folks local metagames. Frown.


Well, I will be at the TX qualifier and I am not insulted by this although I was at first. After giving it some thought, I understand the reasoning behind the question and in TX it is valid because our DDM scene is pretty small from a national perspective. I don't think it really means we're weak down here but just unheard from. More worried really that some of the stronger players that will have to travel for a Q will make the extra few hundred miles to come to TX cuz they want an easier time of it. If that happens it will bother me more than some of you speculating that the TX Q will be "weak."

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04/11/2006 5:45 PM  
The Michigan qualifier scares me as alawys. Just waiting to see what vile evil warband witchcraft Shugg and Slingerland and their ilk spew out this year. That, and with my Lich Necromancer being on the cusp of uselessness in the current meta, methinks I may have a problem :-p

Still, should be a great time. I'm hoping we'll get some of the Howell Crew in from Hero Quest and drag some Ohio types up, possibly some of those tricksy players from that nation to the north...Canada I think they call it. Might see more of the central ohio/southern Ohio crowd as well, as Origins doesn't seem to be a qualifier this time.


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04/11/2006 5:48 PM  
Just find me an easy one somebody ... it is my only hope ...

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Southeast PA

04/11/2006 5:54 PM  
Jesse as a native of PA I was wondering why you classified the Pittsburg Qualifier as more difficult than Northfield NJ? Northfield had 31 in attendance last year and Kiddoc qualified at this one the year before. I know of at least 8 people there who will challenge for the title and several players from MD and NY will travel out there. Of those 8 people I think five of them are in the top 100 of DCI rankings and one in the top 25.

The Pittsburg qualifier is new this year if I'm not mistaken.

So again I was just wondering why you felt Pittsburg was so strong.

They are both held on the same day so I could travel to either one although NJ is much closer. Just curious....

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04/11/2006 6:15 PM  
The fact that there's any qualifier considered to be easier or more difficult is a testament that the system of site event arrangement is flawed. But I guess it's inevitable (Marut?). Of course none of the other so called easy tournaments is anywhere near my area save Utah and perhaps Idaho. At least nothing within 15 hours of driving. Why the heck is there a qualifier in BFE Idaho anyway? It's about 4-5 hours driving from Salt Lake. I seriously think the locations of the qualifiers is really limited on the west and were placed in some really stupid places.

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04/11/2006 8:23 PM  
MN will be difficult for the locals. This is because most of us play each other and know each others strengths and weaknesses. Our local meda is also a little quirky. Players will bring spoiler bands just to take down those running a standard power house. Of course not caring about their personal record as they lose to some of the other power houses.

Players coming from out of town might find it easier. I base this on how the MN crew ( 7 or 8 of us) did at GenCon last year. IIRC I was close to the top of MN players at 2-4+ a last round bye[:(] at GenCon. With everyone else dropping after 2-3 losses. But again several good players from MN could not attend GenCon.

Then there is the #1 (bonepinner)and #3 (shadowfox)in MN that have as far as I know not played in a tourney sense the last constructed qualifier. IIRC Bone won it and Shadow was 3rd or 4th. I'm sure they have been practicing via vassal or friends.
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04/11/2006 8:48 PM  
I'm going to chime in here and agree with millygoat.

I know several people who are not yet listed as being at Ypsilanti, MI, and I know their DCI ratings, and I know that this is going to be a brutal qualifier.

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04/11/2006 8:58 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Chad the DragonLordofAiur

Jesse as a native of PA I was wondering why you classified the Pittsburg Qualifier as more difficult than Northfield NJ? Northfield had 31 in attendance last year and Kiddoc qualified at this one the year before. I know of at least 8 people there who will challenge for the title and several players from MD and NY will travel out there. Of those 8 people I think five of them are in the top 100 of DCI rankings and one in the top 25.

The Pittsburg qualifier is new this year if I'm not mistaken.

So again I was just wondering why you felt Pittsburg was so strong.

They are both held on the same day so I could travel to either one although NJ is much closer. Just curious....



Other than Pittsburgh being an unknown quantity I agree with the list mostly. Either way its a judgement call.

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04/11/2006 8:59 PM  
wait - so yall are saying that I dont suck, its just that my competition is at a much higher level?

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04/11/2006 10:47 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by Kiddoc

If Pat Lynch, Rob Hatch, Jesse Dean, and Brad Shugg all got together to play at a "secret" qualifier with just the 4 of them, would we dismiss it as "weak" because they only had 4 people. Piece of cake right, how much "easier" could the competition get.



Well, since the top 4 qualify (don't they?) I think that would rate as exceptionally easy :) Everyone who plays will qualify.

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04/11/2006 11:45 PM  
quote:
Originally posted by robbdaman

...Of course none of the other so called easy tournaments is anywhere near my area save Utah and perhaps Idaho. At least nothing within 15 hours of driving. Why the heck is there a qualifier in BFE Idaho anyway? It's about 4-5 hours driving from Salt Lake. I seriously think the locations of the qualifiers is really limited on the west and were placed in some really stupid places.

R~



As A person living in "BFE Idaho" I have to say that the store there runs 2 dci tournaments. plus all the other DCI stuff. so when someone says "the stores don't get qualifiers" and then when one that runs it does, It doesn't make sense to me. We had 32 players at our Qualifier last year, so it's at least a healthy scene. I know a lot of those players aren't active on the boards, here or wotc. But there's some quality players there. Do i think it's at the level of Cali or eastern seaboard? Maybe, Maybe not, I've never played them. I think that Cali has more quantity of quality players, but not necessarily better players. That being said, I think the ID qualifier could be considered weak in that the number of high quality players isn't as high as other qualifiers. But it also means more spoiler bands, which I can attest are a hard to expect.

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04/12/2006 12:42 AM  
I am going to be attending one of the "weaker" qualifiers, but I am not sure that "weaker" is the best term. I think "low-profile" is a better way of looking at it.

When I was in Edmonton for the Wardrums Release Tournament, they had about 20 players. It wasn't huge, and admittedly, I would say that it was made up of 50% casual players and 50% addicts. Considering that there wasn't many (if any) people from Calgary, I expect this qualifier to break 30 easily. I think that this is quite respectable, but it still doesn't make it huge.

In the end however, one might argue that the field of competition in Edmonton isn't as deep as somewhere else in the States, but there are certainly about a half-dozen VERY talented people who will be looking to win the top prize, and that doesn't include anyone showing up from Vancouver.

It doesn't matter which qualifier you are going to. Expect to see a core group of people who are going to be extremely tough competition. A good number of them may not post on Maxminis, but that doesn't mean that they aren't excellent players. If a person wins a qualifier, they had a good run of luck AND they deserve it due to good play. If you have one or the other, you won't win. You need both. Good players will win the qualifiers. I wouldn't ever say that someone who won a "weak" qualifier is a "weak" player. They are going to be, at the very least, a very good player. Maybe not exceptional or top 5 in the world, but to discount any winner of any qualifier would be silly and a mistake.

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04/12/2006 1:23 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by Teflon Jeff

quote:
Originally posted by robbdaman

...Of course none of the other so called easy tournaments is anywhere near my area save Utah and perhaps Idaho. At least nothing within 15 hours of driving. Why the heck is there a qualifier in BFE Idaho anyway? It's about 4-5 hours driving from Salt Lake. I seriously think the locations of the qualifiers is really limited on the west and were placed in some really stupid places.

R~



As A person living in "BFE Idaho" I have to say that the store there runs 2 dci tournaments. plus all the other DCI stuff. so when someone says "the stores don't get qualifiers" and then when one that runs it does, It doesn't make sense to me. We had 32 players at our Qualifier last year, so it's at least a healthy scene. I know a lot of those players aren't active on the boards, here or wotc. But there's some quality players there. Do i think it's at the level of Cali or eastern seaboard? Maybe, Maybe not, I've never played them. I think that Cali has more quantity of quality players, but not necessarily better players. That being said, I think the ID qualifier could be considered weak in that the number of high quality players isn't as high as other qualifiers. But it also means more spoiler bands, which I can attest are a hard to expect.



I'm more complaining that the Idaho and Utah qualifiers are so close together that it seems silly to have them seperately. They're in such close proximity when every other location on the western half of the US isn't even within 12 hours driving distance. I look at the distance and time and if any other event was even close to a 3 hour difference from another event on the west half of the map I wouldn't think they have some stupid locations. Since there isn't one that is I do think it's pretty stupid.

R~

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04/12/2006 4:20 AM  
one thing i think people may not have taken into account is timing on the qualifiers. i'm thinking utah will be rough just because it'll be the first qualifier in the western region. for those of us who have to qualify through tournaments, we've got to get every chance in, means starting early and keeping going till we qualify or lose at the grinder. Utah is my first chance, so i'll be there. i'm not a great player, but i'm pretty decent and if i qualify early, i won't be at Idaho, Colorado, Mesa, or Santa Clara (okay, i'll be at Santa Clara regardless). Santa Clara is late in the season, so maybe people won't be as hungry, but those who are left will be ravenous. and the local competition here is rough, look at derry's tournament record over the past 3 months and tell me it's an easy scene.

all this means we're speculating heavily, but i'd definitely add in a time component to the consideration, placing qualifiers towards the middle of season and outside of known hotbeds to be easier than others. hence why i suspect my best chance at qualifying will be at idaho or washington. not that there aren't good players there, but the travelers will be least in attendance, and i know people are going to being doing a lot of traveling (i heard a rumor derry, dagni, and smyrin were planning on going to a qualifier together... thats not pretty).

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04/12/2006 5:15 AM  
To expand upon the timing factor, the qualifiers should increase in difficulty across the country as time passes. This is due to the fact that the optimal metagame choices will become public knowledge.

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04/12/2006 6:15 AM  
I think the europe qualifier will be a tough one...


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I played Mechwarrior (the clix game)from since the beginning and everytime the canadian and US dominated the championship. Last year was the first time that the european entered the championship and after 12 games a german player of my area lead with 11:1 wins, so be aware about european flying to the championship...[:D]

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04/12/2006 7:43 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by johnny.quest

This topic is too subjective for me to form an opinion. Any qualifier will be difficult for me.



Yeah, you got that right. I'm going in loosey goosey, with a strong warband, and just hope I do well. Not gonna stress too much about it.

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04/12/2006 7:45 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by Janos M.

I think the europe qualifier will be a tough one...


And for all you amercian outthere here's an anecdote:
I played Mechwarrior (the clix game)from since the beginning and everytime the canadian and US dominated the championship. Last year was the first time that the european entered the championship and after 12 games a german player of my area lead with 11:1 wins, so be aware about european flying to the championship...[:D]



I don't know anything about Janos, but I will agree with him. The Best Magic Player of all time was German (Kai Budde), The best Mage Knight player later in its life was German (Sasha K.) and some of the very best Mechwarrior players were German. The europeans (Germans especially) are good at games. Game playing is more socially accepted over there, and theres more cross training going on. They play more kinds of games which helps tune the brain to new strategies that can be carried from one game to another.


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04/12/2006 7:46 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by elder_basilisk

quote:
Originally posted by Kiddoc

If Pat Lynch, Rob Hatch, Jesse Dean, and Brad Shugg all got together to play at a "secret" qualifier with just the 4 of them, would we dismiss it as "weak" because they only had 4 people. Piece of cake right, how much "easier" could the competition get.



Well, since the top 4 qualify (don't they?) I think that would rate as exceptionally easy :) Everyone who plays will qualify.



Just don't be player number 5 that shows up.[:)]

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04/12/2006 9:26 AM  
Pardon, but some of the top players in the world are from NJ and will be there. Mackey, myself, redlund, coyle, etc.



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04/12/2006 9:47 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by jgortner

Pardon, but some of the top players in the world are from NJ and will be there. Mackey, myself, redlund, coyle, etc.





I notice you didn't mention the highly rated John Sefchek. Does he no longer actively play?

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04/12/2006 9:56 AM  
I may not be particularly imposing based on my record to date, but I am persistent, and qualifying for GenCon was a goal I set for myself when I started playing competitively last August (yes, I know how that sounds).

Aside from the Ypsilanti event, I'm within driving distance of Richmond, KY; Pittsburgh, PA; and Niles, IL. And I will go to each of them in turn until I qualify (and I may go to the others anyway just to get in the practice against other top players).

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04/12/2006 10:02 AM  
quote:
Originally posted by Helzapoppn

I may not be particularly imposing based on my record to date, but I am persistent, and qualifying for GenCon was a goal I set for myself when I started playing competitively last August (yes, I know how that sounds).

Aside from the Ypsilanti event, I'm within driving distance of Richmond, KY; Pittsburgh, PA; and Niles, IL. And I will go to each of them in turn until I qualify (and I may go to the others anyway just to get in the practice against other top players).




Come to MN, its not that far.

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