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BoloBaby
Sergeant
640 Posts
    
Fort Mill, SC
 | | 04/22/2006 3:03 AM |
| "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it." - George Santayana
This article is not about how to win; this article is about how I handily lost a recent match. By showing you the mistakes I made, you and I both - hopefully - will not be doomed to repeat them. I will point out how the mistakes could be remedied, but since the match was not played in this fashion, it's hard to tell if those remedies would surely lead to victory.
I'm a relatively new player in the D&D miniatures arena. I've been playing less than two months, learning a lot, and - naturally - making quite a few mistakes. Although I have an extensive background in wargaming and as an infantry soldier (which gives some insight into tactics and strategy), it's easy to make mistakes. In fact, even veteran DDM players are likely to admit they make mistakes from time to time - especially in tough matches.
Before we dive into this particular example - which includes maps so you can follow along! - let me first say that some of you will probably be scratching your head, wondering how I could have been so stupid. Believe me, in hindsight, I'm wondering the same thing! Isn't that usually the case with all of our mistakes, though?
Also, if you haven't already seen HidesFromHurricanes fascinating article on combinatorial game theory, you can find it here: http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=15076 The information contained in that article can be applied to this situation.
OK, here we go...
This example is from a 100pt constructed match. On the maps (Dragon Shrine), my figures are represented by the red lines and my opponent's are represented by the green.
At the start of the match, our warbands looked like this:
Me (Red): Zombie White Dragon, 5x Quaggoth Slave, Spider of Lloth, Hyena
Opponent (Green): Tiefling Captain, Drow Arcane Guard, 4x Quaggoth Slave, 2x Orc Savage
During setup, my Spider of Lloth was placed in the Electricity Blessing victory area. On round one, I charged an Orc Savage, killing it. My opponent subsequently engaged the Spider of Lloth with a Quaggoth Slave, landing a critical hit and eliminating it from the battle much sooner than I had expected. So, you will not see those two pieces represented on the maps.
The entire scenario centers around my tactical decision made at the very beginning of round two. I won the initiative. Here's what the battlefield looked like:
OK... take a good look. Before I show you my moves, let me give my (faulty) reasoning behind them.
I had recently been playing the ZWD in a different warband with good success. In that warband, I used the ZWD as a meat-shield, tying up multiple figures so that I could divide and conquer my opponents' forces. This strategy had worked well in the past, so it had become something of a habit.
Moreover, I was sweating the Drow Arcane Guard from the beginning of the match. Too much so, in fact. I was overreacting to the area effect - a mistake I warn against in my article for newbies (http://www.maxminis.com/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=18639). I saw the Drow Arcane Guard as a threat to my un-pumped Quaggoth Slaves and wanted desperately to intercept that particular mini before it could get off its firey blast.
Finally, since I was focusing so much on how to tie up the Drow Arcane Guard, I was looking at the rest of the map in a very narrow fashion. So here's how I moved:
I wanted to push the ZWD over one additional space, but - alas - he was out of moves at that point. Regardless, I felt he would be tying up that part of the battlefield long enough. I knew my opponent would take the attack of opportunity to move his Drow Arcane Guard, but with the ZWD in that osition, it would be the closest target no matter where he moved this round, so I'd have another turn to deal with that threat before it fully materialized.
After I moved the ZWD, I charged the Orc Savage because it was easy to see. More on that later...
OK, these two moves were bad - very bad. From a combinatorial game standpoint, my strategy should have been to eliminate Quaggoth Slaves before they could pump up their hit points. Ideally, I should eliminate Quaggoth Slaves with MY Quaggoth Slaves so that they pumped up. Instead, I provided his two Quaggoth Slaves in the mouth of the tunnel with a nice meaty target to hit so that they could pump up first. Tsk, tsk.
Moreover, by not fully examining the board - and choosing to charge the easy Orc Savage, I missed an opportunity to engage the Quaggoth in the top victory area.
My moves SHOULD have been this:
Look at how much better this is. Most likely, the Quaggoth from the Sacred Circle would have engaged and killed one of the two enemy figures. Then, as a result of the hit, he would be at 35hp. Now, even if both remaining enemy Quaggoths on that side of the board engaged, they would not be able to kill my Quaggoth (barring a critical hit).
Furthermore, that Quaggoth was doing the job I intended for the ZWD - delaying the Drow Arcane Guard. Even if he moved past the Quaggoth to fire at me, that particular Quaggoth would still be closest... and his Quaggoths would be in the mix. Clearly, he would use the Arcane Guard to finish off the last 5hp on my aggressor, but that means he would have used up 3 activations just to counter my one activation.
My second move should have been to attack the enemy in the upper victory area. Here was another chance to eliminate a Quaggoth and pump mine up first. As a result of NOT doing this, my opponent slid HIS figure down and eliminated MY Quaggoth.
Eliminating the Quaggoth in the upper victory area would have left a beefier target for the Tiefling Captain to deal with. I can't say for sure what my opponent would have done next, but if he had moved the Orc Savage down to eliminate the remaining Quaggoth in the right passage, it would have put his Orc Savage in range of my two remaining Quaggoths so that they could pump up using his soft, fleshy corpse.
At the end of the round, my opponent would have only two 35hp Quaggoths while I would potentially have three. Furthermore, since I won the initiative, I could have delayed moving the ZWD until last, finally getting it into the blocking position I had wanted in the first place! (Assuming he actually killed the Quaggoth I had moved in.)
This is a fine example of how I failed to go after the "hot" pieces as combinatorial game theory suggests I do.
Lesson learned. | |
Champion of the Cleric with Raise Dead | |
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Gristlemane
Sergeant
623 Posts
| | 04/22/2006 3:47 AM |
| Ah, my second favorite American philosopher.
As to the actual game, I'm not certain charging the Orc Savage is really a terrible move. That's one case where it's better to charge than be charged. The ZWD placement is fairly questionable though. Did you forget about the Savage Frenzy or did you think it was worth it to prevent the burning hands from scorching your guys? | |
It's deja vu all over again. | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10446 Posts
United States
| | 04/22/2006 8:07 AM |
| Thanks very much for the informative piece. It's very nice to see people using maxminis in this way.
It took me a few silly losses myself to realize the validity in eliminating my opponent's activations. And, if you knew me, you'd think I would have understood it from the beginning.
A long time ago ('87 or so) I used to play chess with a classmate in college. He played using a simple strategy. On every move, if possible, he tried to select, from among his good options, a move that would have these two effects: 1) his opponent's total number of good options decreased, and 2) his total number of good options for his next move increased.
For a long time, I thought his strategy wasn't very wise. I figured that so long as good moves remained, the total number of available good moves wasn't really all that relevant. Silly me.
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Temysry
Sergeant
514 Posts
| | 04/22/2006 2:06 PM |
| An excellent analysis of the situation. Given that in the "corrected" version it would be very unlikely that your quaggoths miss, you would have been in a significantly better position.
Also - I often see situations where you get into a position where your options seem to be "charge or be charged". You nicely illustrate that there are often other choices and that sometimes they are much better. | |
A Proud Gelatinous Dude
www.gelatinousdudes.com
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rhane
Underboss
1412 Posts
| | 04/23/2006 11:40 AM |
| Very nice article...I particularly like the "what would you do" scenario. I'd love to see more of these scenarios...kinda like those chess problems that appear in the paper.
Anyway, my initial reaction was also to move the ZWD in a way to control the board. Its natural to try to get your key creatures in a position to do what they're supposed to do. However, after noticing that 2 of your Quaggoths could move and attack, I agree that that is the better move. | |
Rhane
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Zippy
Underboss
1993 Posts
Whitewater, WI
| | 04/23/2006 12:51 PM |
| It looks like your ZWD move was illegal - 13 instead of 12. The last move cannot "clip" the column corner, ZWD must move left then straight up one square.
Perhaps staying out of range (your quag on his quag in his victory area, and stay away from his DAG & dual quags) would be better? One way to find out is start at the 1st screen shot and replay it following a different round 2 opener move, see where it takes you. | |
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Reference Thread, H/W List, Champion of the Catoblepas | |
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EldritchSoul
Warrior
324 Posts
| | 04/23/2006 2:40 PM |
| | an interesting article, i try to learn something from every match I play, and i try to teach my opponent something in every match I play as well (afterwards, of course) | |
Champion of Dracotaur- Vindicated!
T32 | |
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lantern314
Sergeant
684 Posts
| | 04/23/2006 2:57 PM |
| I'd like to ask to what extent your original move was made based on a desire to avoid losing any of your pieces in the game?
Something that I did early on and something that I see new players doing is making decisions that are designed to avoid the loss of even a single piece. I became a better player when I learned that the loss of a small piece can save the lives of large pieces in a variety of ways. This is especially true when the targeting of ranged effects [i]must[/] be directed at the nearest enemy. Of course in close games those few points may make the difference, but the principle remains.
I ask because interposing the unlikely to die ZWD is the move I would expect from someone trying to save everything, whereas your after action analysis indicates that "sacrificing" the Quoggoth would result in a more likely victory.
I would also like to see the next step in your analysis. If you wait and commit the ZWD last, how will it figure in your battle plan? | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 04/23/2006 4:52 PM |
| I love specific examples!
In all of my games, I try to be as analytical as possible. I do find, though, that I go back over my moves in losses (and find mistakes) a lot more than in wins - even though I make about as many mistakes in either case. Winning makes it harder to find the mistakes, however.
Anyway, in this specific case, the specific combo of two moves that you chose after the fact are still not right. Where you gain the most is certainly by attacking the quaggoth in the upper victory area. However, if you do the other move you suggest, I can't see any good reason to use the Quaggoth you used to do so. Later, I will use this exact move as part of my suggested two moves, the one reason to move this guy is to avoid the cone of the Arcane Guard, but with your other move the Arcane Guard can only get one 15 hp Quaggoth max, whether or not you move this guy - and he'd have to take an aoo to even do that! This quaggoth is better positioned than the one next to it, because this one can reach the square where your other move is putting a different quaggoth, one that's likely to die this round. The quaggoth next to this one can also attack the upper enemy. Move that one instead, if you're going to do the other move in this combo.
Second move is hard. There's no move that does everything desired. If you do the move you suggest, the opponent moves the Savage out of danger, counter-attacking the Quaggoth in the upper right, from above him, so he's not in range of your other guys. He gains +20 hp, and you lose 15, so that Quaggoth vs Savage battle is pretty even. None of your guys are in range to attack the Savage, because your own guy is in the only square another Quaggoth can reach.
Both of his remaining Quaggoths get to attack your Quaggoth, and the Drow Arcane Guard can finish him off. So you're left with a Quaggoth with 20 hp, and 3 with 15 that haven't got the bonus hp yet, and he's got 2 with 35, and a Savage with 25.
Hmm. I don't know, maybe that's the best you can hope for. If you fix the mistake with the other move, at least that Quaggoth is in range to take the place of the Quaggoth that the enemy can kill. As you can outwait the enemy, that would get you another hit, or, possibly mean that the opponent wouldn't kill that Quaggoth.
Your best play, in general, is to keep his Quaggoths from being able to attack, just as he would (or should) do to you if you did your suggested moves. However, he has the Savage in range of attacking many guys, and he has the farthest Quaggoth from the fight with a clear charge lane. Going the route of denial, rather than the route of taking out another Quaggoth, the move that looks most reasonable is to kill his orc savage. For various reasons (it took me a long time to evaluate this board position), the best move seems to be to do the same charge you did in the 'mistake' set of moves, but absolutely charge one square to the right, not in a perfectly straight line. Yes, it's still a legal charge. (Is the Savage's ac high enough to matter if you charge? I highly doubt it. It's always good to check whether or not charging even helps.) In this case, in your second move it IS a good idea to attack the upper enemy with the Quaggoth you chose, because this time you do need to minimize the cone from the Drow Arcane Guard.
What makes this set of moves good is that now he can only attack with 2 of his Quaggoths, and only on a 35 hp Quaggoth, not on a 15 hp Quaggoth, the 'charging' Quaggoth in the back won't be able to reach or charge anymore, until your first Quaggoth is eliminated, by which time you can move your guy out of the way. Also he can only cone one 15 hp Quaggoth max, and however he attacks with his 2 Quaggoths, you'll be able to attack back with all of your backfield quaggoths.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's the best two moves. First do the charge attack one square to the right of where you did it in your (first) example. Do it first because if it misses there's more potential to change the other move. Then do the exact move you did (in the second example), attacking the upper enemy with the Quaggoth you chose.
The enemy gets less, you get more. If there's any worry with that set of moves, it's that after all your Quaggoths get 35 hp, they may all be bunched for the Drow Arcane Guard. Darn.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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BoloBaby
Sergeant
640 Posts
Fort Mill, SC
| | 04/23/2006 5:06 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Zippy
It looks like your ZWD move was illegal - 13 instead of 12. The last move cannot "clip" the column corner, ZWD must move left then straight up one square.
Perhaps staying out of range (your quag on his quag in his victory area, and stay away from his DAG & dual quags) would be better? One way to find out is start at the 1st screen shot and replay it following a different round 2 opener move, see where it takes you.
I'm away this weekend, so I don't have much time to respond to everyone just yet. I'll get to individual postings sometime Sunday night.
I would like to respond to one thing: the ZWD move was definitely legal. If it appears illegal on this mock-up, then it is only because I put its start position in the wrong place. I'm pretty sure the move is good and the ZWD is in the correct start position. Perhaps you have not taken into account that the ZWD has flying and is not slowed down by the statues when flying over them... (I'll double check the positioning later, but I think it is all good.) | |
Champion of the Cleric with Raise Dead | |
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BoloBaby
Sergeant
640 Posts
Fort Mill, SC
| | 04/24/2006 2:57 AM |
| First, back to Zippy. It looks like I misplaced the ZWD on the mock-up. His starting position in round two should be one square to the left. That puts him where he would have ended up after a full move from where he started the game.
I was certain he was able to make the spot indicated by the move because I counted it three or four times during the game. I was lamenting the fact that I couldn't get him one more space to the left, thereby further blocking the hall.
Again - he should be one space to the left on the map at the start of round two. That fixes it.
Next lantern314...
quote:
Originally posted by lantern314
I'd like to ask to what extent your original move was made based on a desire to avoid losing any of your pieces in the game?
I would also like to see the next step in your analysis. If you wait and commit the ZWD last, how will it figure in your battle plan?
First question: not so much. I usually don't mind losing a piece when necessary. My move was based mostly on habit - I had used the ZWD to "split" my opponents' forces in the past and I fell back to that same tactic. I was also trying to make it hard for the Drow Arcane Guard to shoot anything but the ZWD.
Second question: That's much harder to answer because I don't know how things would progress from this point. Who knows how my opponent would react and what pieces might be remaining? I had *expected* the Spider of Lloth to stay on the board much longer than one round, but a critical hit eliminated it on round one.
There is still the question of his Drow Arcane Guard. Depending on its map position, I might want to base it at the end of the round with the ZWD - especially if I was able to attack it earlier in the round with a Quaggoth based on his movements. If he's smart, he keeps it back so I don't get the chance to base it. In that case, the best I can hope to do is to try and position my pieces so he continues to have limited options with the Arcane Guard.
Besides the Drow, I might try to base the remaining Orc Savage with the ZWD at the end of the round. Why? Because one hit from the ZWD and one hit from any of my Quaggoths would deny my opponent another 15 points of damage. That would probably be the most efficient use of my pieces.
Now Dagni...
Take a good look at the board position again. Let's say I use my two activations as you suggest - and I think you are suggesting to attack the enemy in his victory area with one Quaggoth AND stick with the original Quaggoth-to-Savage charge from sacred circle to sacred circle, right? (I'm a bit tired, but I think that's what you wrote.)
If I do those two moves, my opponent can move his Drow Arcane Guard to a position just above the lower left column. From there, can use his cone to zap my Hyena AND a Quaggoth. I end up losing two figs with one activation. Not good. | |
Champion of the Cleric with Raise Dead | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 04/24/2006 6:35 PM |
| Yes, that's what I'm suggesting. And yes, certainly he could get the Hyena and Quaggoth.
Umm, that's not so bad. In fact, it's less than a 50/50 that you lose two activations. It's exactly 50/50 that you lose the Quaggoth, and the Hyena is probably... level 2, which gives a 40% times a 15% that he sticks around too. That's only 6%, but the chance is there, meaning that there's only a 47% chance that both die/rout. Better, the opponent has just used his most powerful weapon. The other way, that you suggest, you're going to end up with 3 Quaggoths that are all still at 15 hp and one that's now at 20 hp, and the Drow Arcane Guard still with his cone available. Are you going to be able to space out your guys well enough to avoid 2 of them being hit with the cone at the start of the next round?
Frankly, I don't think losing the Hyena is worth concerning yourself over, though it won't help you outwait the opponent.
Another way of looking at it, in my opinion you're costing yourself 3 activations if you do the moves you suggest. All three of your remaining Quaggoths will be out of position to attack an enemy assuming the opponent does the Orc Savage move that I'd do. Also, you're giving the opponent one more activation (the back Quaggoth, that I would stay out of range of entirely).
That hurts more than the 47% chance to lose 2 activations if the opponent chooses to use his most powerful weapon towards that purpose.
Even with this fairly simple example, however, the variables are complex enough that I respect that others might not agree with me. I can only try to explain my personal view of the situation. I probably spent a good half-hour or more looking at it, so I've already thought over my position quite a bit.
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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IanB
Commander
3112 Posts
| | 04/24/2006 6:46 PM |
| I'd love to contribute to this thread... but I can't tell which quaggoths belong to whom.
Next time you do an article like this (which I encourage!) please use a different set of colors to differentiate the sides. (Blue and Yellow, for example, would be easy to tell apart.) [:)]
This message brought to you buy Color Blind People Against Red And Green Game Tokens. | |
Anson on WotC boards | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 04/24/2006 6:57 PM |
| Heh, bummer. That would make Vassal games harder. Don't blame BoloBaby, though, that's just a Vassal screenshot, and those're the only two colors available. However, might be worth mentioning to tullywi, it'd probably be easy for him to change the Player colors to Yellow and Blue. Or Red and Blue, since those colors look better, and are probably easy enough to tell apart(?)
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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IanB
Commander
3112 Posts
| | 04/24/2006 7:04 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by Dagni
Heh, bummer. That would make Vassal games harder. Don't blame BoloBaby, though, that's just a Vassal screenshot, and those're the only two colors available. However, might be worth mentioning to tullywi, it'd probably be easy for him to change the Player colors to Yellow and Blue. Or Red and Blue, since those colors look better, and are probably easy enough to tell apart(?)
- Dagni
Oh, yikes, yeah, I haven't checked out Vassal yet, that could be a big problem for me. I keep meaning to, but there's always some distraction. I'm surprised it hasn't come up yet - something like 10% of men are red/green colorblind, so maybe it isn't as hard to tell them apart when you're looking at an actual Vassal screen, before the .jpg compression etc.
Red/Blue would also be easy enough for people with the normal kind of color blindness. | |
Anson on WotC boards | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 04/24/2006 8:02 PM |
| My guess is that for those people who are color blind, it's not a big deal because when playing the game it's very rare that you don't know who a figure belongs to. I've seen games where neither player took the time to change their pieces to Player 2's color, so both sides were Green. Not normally a big deal - except to spectators.
- Dagni
Edit: Oh, and Bolobaby's guys are all in the lower right half of the board, in the initial screenshot, and his opponent's pieces are all in the upper left half. | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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IanB
Commander
3112 Posts
| | 04/24/2006 9:23 PM |
| So, having examined the board with what I think are the right pieces belonging to the right people, I think I largely agree with Dagni's assessment of the situation.
I assume the rear quaggoth on the opponent's side is the one that is already at 35 hp from killing the spider? Don't have the map in front of me, so I'm not sure which corner is electricity and which is cold. As long as it isn't the upper right quaggoth that has the hp boost, I think Dagni's moves are the right ones. I spent a fair amount of time trying to figure out if there was anything to be gained by using the hyena on the savage instead of a quaggoth, but I think you're better off holding the hyena out of move-and-swing range from a quaggoth, even if it does leave you very likely to die/leave the board from a cone. It is probably worth more to not give +20 to a quaggoth and lose the piece anyway.
Note also that lessons about moving are not the only lessons to take away from a match. You might want to examine the role of the ZWD in this build, and consider whether having it around was really worth 37 points. It appears that your Spider of Lolth died an early death The question of construction is more or less off-topic, but it is usually the 2nd thing I look at when evaluating a loss, other than trying to pinpoint the two or three worst moves I made. | |
Anson on WotC boards | |
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robbdaman
Underboss
2380 Posts
| | 04/24/2006 10:12 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by IanB
quote:
Originally posted by Dagni
Heh, bummer. That would make Vassal games harder. Don't blame BoloBaby, though, that's just a Vassal screenshot, and those're the only two colors available. However, might be worth mentioning to tullywi, it'd probably be easy for him to change the Player colors to Yellow and Blue. Or Red and Blue, since those colors look better, and are probably easy enough to tell apart(?)
- Dagni
Oh, yikes, yeah, I haven't checked out Vassal yet, that could be a big problem for me. I keep meaning to, but there's always some distraction. I'm surprised it hasn't come up yet - something like 10% of men are red/green colorblind, so maybe it isn't as hard to tell them apart when you're looking at an actual Vassal screen, before the .jpg compression etc.
Red/Blue would also be easy enough for people with the normal kind of color blindness.
You could always just label your pieces with an identifying mark of some sort. Like typing IAN on ever piece's HP.
R~ | |
Champion of the Titan
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BoloBaby
Sergeant
640 Posts
Fort Mill, SC
| | 04/25/2006 6:29 AM |
| Sorry about the screenshot colors. The game was not played in Vassal, but the mock-ups were created there. Next time I'll try to put some distinguishing mark on the pieces.
Ian - yes, the leftmost Quaggoth was the one that killed the spider and was boosted to 35.
Now, as far as Dagni's move suggestion...
I would argue that the primary concern should be to eliminate Quaggoths before they can have their hit points boosted. For that reason, I see attacking my opponent's Quaggoth over his Orc Savage as the better move.
Look at it this way: the Orc Savage, after being boosted, can be killed by two Quaggoth attacks or by a ZWD attack and Quaggoth. My opponent's Slaves, on the other hand, will require three hits to kill after they are boosted. That will be three activations. By eliminating a Quaggoth BEFORE it boosts, I am saving myself an activation later. That also means that I will be denying my opponent one extra attack down the road since it will take me less activations to eliminate his figs.
Furthermore, putting off the Drow Arcane Guard until after my Quaggoths are all pumped is not so bad. Even if the Drow blasts me for full, he can't kill a pumped Quaggoth... but he CAN kill an unpumped Quaggoth and Hyena - which is what I face if I *don't* move the Quaggoth into attack position.
As far as the ZWD's role in the army, it is actually quite pivotal when used correctly. The idea is to trade damage and figs with your opponent in the early game. In the late game, the opponent won't have enough figs to attrit the ZWD fast enough (because he's so huge) and the ZWD will do 10 reliable HP worth of damage a round to (probably) already damaged figs.
The 5 Quaggoths in this army are the early punch. The ZWD is the piece that goes the distance and mops up whatever is left over. | |
Champion of the Cleric with Raise Dead | |
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Dagni
Sergeant
870 Posts
| | 04/25/2006 1:48 PM |
| Two things. You didn't label the rear Quaggoth with 35 hp. That might change my moves, not sure. Secondly, the Orc Savage is *almost* as important as a Quaggoth, and if you move as you suggested, then after you get 2 Quaggoth kills ALL his guys will trigger the hp boost, and NONE of the rest of yours will trigger. He will still have his Drow Arcane Guard's cone, and will have more opportunities to kill your figures before they gain +20 hp. You won't have any more opportunities.
quote:
Originally posted by BoloBaby
Furthermore, putting off the Drow Arcane Guard until after my Quaggoths are all pumped is not so bad. Even if the Drow blasts me for full, he can't kill a pumped Quaggoth... but he CAN kill an unpumped Quaggoth and Hyena - which is what I face if I *don't* move the Quaggoth into attack position.
I firmly believe it's a mistake to believe that your Quaggoths are about to all be pumped. Were I the opponent, I'm quite certain I'd leave the remaining 3 Quaggoths alone and stay out of range of your attack for this round. Then either you risk them to a lost initiative (at a 4 commander disadvantage) or you leave them out of attack range again.
Also, the Drow Arcane Guard's cone does either 10 or 20 damage. On an unpumped Quaggoth, that's either 0 or 1 hit worth. True, if it hits, it keeps him from ever pumping. However, on pumped Quaggoths, his cone does either 1 or 2 hits worth. So even if you assume that a Quaggoth is guaranteed to pump to 3 hits if the DAG doesn't use his cone right away, the average number of hits worth of damage is the same - either 0 or 3 (1.5 avg) or 1 or 2 (1.5 avg).
- Dagni | |
Proud member of the GRUUMSH fan club! | |
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