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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
    
United States
 | | 12/30/2007 2:35 PM |
| As per request, I'm opening up a new discussion thread for this WBC, based on the 4th (and, probably, 5th) round.
Chatter away.
(I'll copy the current posts from the other thread over here.)
Dave
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Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
| | 12/30/2007 2:36 PM |
| Some comments about the beginning of the fourth round:
1) There sure are a lot of Sacred Watchers at the "top 4" tables.
2) There are 8 Astral Stalkers in the top 10 bands.
3) In the top 8 bands, there are 6 different commanders, and two commanderless bands.
4) There are fewer "mirror matches" now than I expected there might be.
5) All four factions are present at the top 3 tables (thanks to S and A, otherwise, LE and LG dominate the whole thing).
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
| | 12/30/2007 2:36 PM |
| Posted By Lord_rock on 12/30/2007 10:14 AM
sacred watchers represent a special type of point denial so I'm not as surprised to see them. I think a lot of people expected dancers and gas.
Stalkers represent the ultimate in self dmg buffing. They increase their own dmg 150% and are very vesitle and sturdy. They were my first thought for a WBC like this.
Commander variability is a bit surprising. In a wb. Like this everyone has their own guess on what could work. I think the two commanderless bands were due to gas and dancer speculation. Also, these two bands do well on any map and at least one of them has above 8 acts. A good look at what's in store for 2.0 me thinks.
Dual Maris and dancers are regular bands that did well in thier day, I don't like it when those bands muck up a good WBC too much.
Mirror matches: it appears at a glance that the bands that are at the top took mirror matches into consideration but didn't need to, weird... The diversity made them stronger... Hmmm I think I've heard that somwhere before...
Anyway, round four should be interesting. The top 4 matches should generate a lot of discussion. Should we open a second dis ussion thread? Round 4 and beyond??? | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Lord_rock
Underboss
2019 Posts
Portland OR
| | 12/30/2007 4:01 PM |
| Not a ton of time right now (must go find henchman costume for James bond new years party) but I'll comment on the top bands:
1) DR and high ac are just too much for the watchers. Low saves means slapps hurt a lot more too. If the clerics cfx gets stolen the watchers need a 17 to even hit... For 5 Dmg!!!
2) lead with fodder and they get picked off, lead with maries and you're looking at +11 for 5 Dmg for one and likely -2 att and saves on the other. Watchers, bat, ebrek should be able to block long enough after buffing to nerd both maries and allow the favored soul to fodder pick with sound bursts. On either map two maries should have to use reach to engage at once and then ac's are 26-27 and then incorp. It's going to be a long long long match but after buffs and debuffs L takes it.
3)if 2 kolyruts were bad for dancers, three is worse, and they brought aramil and AOE too. Another bad match up for dancers. All three could end up paralysed and that hurts. Once again DR foils the xendric's plans.
4) G wins because the dragon mark heir won't allow the slayer the big kill. The watchers can fodder hunt and pick at the dragonmark but stalkers are just to tough without mw.
5) M wins because of an extra commander with an excellent cfx and fodder that can actually contribute.
6)Q, poor dread wraiths just can't avoid the watchers.
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Rock Bottom Pricing:
Arcane Archer 30, Centaur Hero 67, Human Cleric of Bane 25, Gold Champion 34, Death Knight 52, Goblin Blackblade 9, Silentwolf Goblin 7, Orc Raider 10, Dwarf axefighter 9, Healer 9, Thaskor 65, Aspect of Demogorgon 71, Ogre 9, Fire Giant 79, Human Wanderer 7, Drunken Master 18, Barghest 12, Longstider Barbarian 27, Longtooth Barbarian 22, Frost Giant 76, Ravenous Vampire 42, Large Earth Elemental: priceless | |
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LordOfBlades
Sneak
57 Posts
| | 12/31/2007 12:46 AM |
| A few thoughts about round 4 matchups:
1) Anything important the watchers could try to take down has both high AC and DR. It would take on average 10 hits to bring down the Rakshasa and 15 for each stalker. This and the stolen CFX should make for a pretty clear winner.
2) 5 damage marilith are not that scary anymore. And there is little band S can do t protect the tiefling form being assassinated by the watchers.
3) Neither shadowdancers nor Xen'driks pack enough punch in this situation to take down anything important fast enough. even if they manage to focus fire on the Kolyaruts, it would take 3-4 rounds to bring one down. Just not good enough.
4)This one is a really close match, which could easily go either way depending on player skill. I think the key to this game is the Slayer of Domiel. If G manages to dispatch it before it can kill anything important then it would msot liekly prevail over O. However, if the Slayer manages to take down something important(even the DHoD) it would get band O well enough ahead on points to win. I am inclined to give this match to band O as G lacks the means to effectively assasinate the Slayer.
5)In the end this match comes down to Virulent Poison vs. Sneak attack. And I think in this scenario poison wins.
6)The wraiths should focus on eliminating the watchers first, as the main threat with their 20 damage vs. evil undead and no incorporeal roll. It takes 4 hits from a watcher to kill a wraith(each requiring a 7 on the die) to kill a wraith, while it takes only 3 wraith hits (each also requiring a 7) to kill a watcher. This, combined with the wraiths superior mobility and maybe a timely Slapping Hand form the Rakshasa means B would most likely eliminate both of Q's watchers without losing a single wraith. And from then on, he has 140 points worth of incorporeal, fearless flying units to play hide and seek with Q's slower units.
7)There isn't much P cand do to prevent invisible xen'driks from reaching the Battleplate Marshall.
8)I think Mariliths will beat Hellcats, even with stolen CFX
9)N lacks enough staying power to withstand the 3 kiities in melee.
10)Once again I think too much power in I's side
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
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bshugg
Underboss
1833 Posts
| | 01/02/2008 6:18 AM |
| Posted By Vrecknidj on 01/02/2008 6:00 AM
I'm surprised by the number of votes for band F lately.
Dave
I think someone drummed up support for their band. :)   I played the match up in Vassal with both maps.  It wasn't pretty for the Sacred Watcher band.  They could maybe win by getting a lead and running out the clock in a tournament somehow but they just couldn't stick enough damage to kill anything before losing threats.     It felt like my Ulmo band versus your helmed horrors at the Ypsi qualifier.
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Looking for someone to cosponser a midwest DDM event. let me know if your interested!
Check out my brand new blog:
http://bshugg.blogspot.com | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
| | 01/02/2008 6:27 AM |
| Yeah, I'm not seeing it either. The Sacred Watchers are doing 5 damage if they can hit. Even without the stolen commander effect, the Sacred Watchers are not hitting the Astral Stalkers very often.
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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LordOfBlades
Sneak
57 Posts
| | 01/02/2008 10:44 AM |
| Never really took the time to notice the high number of votes for F until I saw the above posts. I am as surprised as the rest of you, because, apart from big mistakes I really don't see a winning scenario for the Watchers.
To be honest, I'd be really grateful if one of the people that voted for band F took the time to explain how he/she sees the match.
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Lord_rock
Underboss
2019 Posts
Portland OR
| | 01/02/2008 11:30 AM |
| | I can't see band F taking the stalkers at all!!! Even with the clerics 2xmw spells on 2 watchers isn't enough. The mw'd watchers still hit less than half the time. The non-mw watchers are worse off and only do 5 Dmg. And it would take three rounds for the cleric to get off his three buffs... That's a couple of your watchers not doing much for a few rounds too. The watchers can't commander assassinate well either since the Rak has dr too. Then look at slaps and such... It's a horrible match up for F. They are out activated, out damaged, out hit, and out spelled...
The second match is tied right now. I knee it'd be close but wow... I just can't see de buffed maries as a huge threat. If it was the other dual marie band with the doomgaurd as a second commander to avoid assassination and provide equal DMV it would be a win for dual maries but not this version. Spell RES or not both are eating a kolyrut ray, one is getting enfeebled, and one will route if the tiefling goes down.
And in the third match A is still getting lots of votes... If last round they couldn't take watchers and 2 kolyrut, his round they can't take watchers and 3 kolyrut... | |
Rock Bottom Pricing:
Arcane Archer 30, Centaur Hero 67, Human Cleric of Bane 25, Gold Champion 34, Death Knight 52, Goblin Blackblade 9, Silentwolf Goblin 7, Orc Raider 10, Dwarf axefighter 9, Healer 9, Thaskor 65, Aspect of Demogorgon 71, Ogre 9, Fire Giant 79, Human Wanderer 7, Drunken Master 18, Barghest 12, Longstider Barbarian 27, Longtooth Barbarian 22, Frost Giant 76, Ravenous Vampire 42, Large Earth Elemental: priceless | |
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Damien the Bloodfeaster
Sergeant
885 Posts
Portland, OR
| | 01/04/2008 9:32 AM |
| Here's my calculation of total votes to date for round 4, with 21 (!) votes reported in. 1. F = 8, J = 13 2. L = 10, S = 11 (VERY close!) 3. A = 9, K = 12 4. G = 8, O = 12 (one person voted for Q in this match, which is why there's only 20 votes total) 5. M = 8, T = 13 6. Q = 15, B = 6 7. P = 3, H = 18 (ouch!) 8. E = 13, R = 8 9. N = 13, C = 8 10. U = 13, I = 8 11. D = 8, V = 13 Â Looks like most of the matches are pretty much decided, except possibly #2, barring a sudden influx of voters of course. | | | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
| | 01/04/2008 12:16 PM |
| Yeah, I don't want to call the second match quite yet...
Then again, I haven't voted.
Then again, I probably shouldn't--I haven't yet after all.
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Lord_rock
Underboss
2019 Posts
Portland OR
| | 01/04/2008 2:53 PM |
| If it will tie up match 2 again I say do it dave!!!
that has to be the most contested and back and forth match I've ever seen in a WBC...
crazy...
someone should take it to vassal... best 2 of 3 or something... | |
Rock Bottom Pricing:
Arcane Archer 30, Centaur Hero 67, Human Cleric of Bane 25, Gold Champion 34, Death Knight 52, Goblin Blackblade 9, Silentwolf Goblin 7, Orc Raider 10, Dwarf axefighter 9, Healer 9, Thaskor 65, Aspect of Demogorgon 71, Ogre 9, Fire Giant 79, Human Wanderer 7, Drunken Master 18, Barghest 12, Longstider Barbarian 27, Longtooth Barbarian 22, Frost Giant 76, Ravenous Vampire 42, Large Earth Elemental: priceless | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
| | 01/06/2008 8:01 AM |
| I've extended the deadline for almost one more day because of the tie.
So, everyone, get out there, shake hands and kiss babies and get more votes!
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
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vanrulzz
Commander
2557 Posts
¯\(°_o)/¯
| | 01/07/2008 3:14 PM |
| | lol, looks like s is in another tug of war with votes. | | | |
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Lord_rock
Underboss
2019 Posts
Portland OR
| | 01/07/2008 7:06 PM |
| L- L brought mw, bless, non sneakable/poisonable hitters, an illuminator, and no stolen cfx. After debuffs it's one stalker at +9 for 5 and -2 saves, one stalker at +11 for ten and -2 saves, and one at full strength; not promissing. After debuffs stalker moral at +12 or worse... L also has okay fodder clearing ranged spells. As always, it's ugly and uglier for J on ratfang.
F- S has faced a lot of watchers, this might be too many so I say they're out of luck. Ac 27 and incorp seize the day. They have a big cfx and better command rating. The tiefling is toast.
And if this is the way it goes down it's down to STR of opponents for first place; Swiss is fun unless the top 4-6 have the same record... Then it's anyone's guess... Eww... Not that I can complain, I think Swiss has improved my standing everytime that's happened in a tourny... And did band A and V face off already?
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Rock Bottom Pricing:
Arcane Archer 30, Centaur Hero 67, Human Cleric of Bane 25, Gold Champion 34, Death Knight 52, Goblin Blackblade 9, Silentwolf Goblin 7, Orc Raider 10, Dwarf axefighter 9, Healer 9, Thaskor 65, Aspect of Demogorgon 71, Ogre 9, Fire Giant 79, Human Wanderer 7, Drunken Master 18, Barghest 12, Longstider Barbarian 27, Longtooth Barbarian 22, Frost Giant 76, Ravenous Vampire 42, Large Earth Elemental: priceless | |
| Hero of Skirmish
doubtofbuddha
Commander
3371 Posts
| | 01/08/2008 7:40 AM |
| | Lord_rock, could you explain to me why you think T will beat K? I just can't see how that would go down.. | |
I am not gone. | |
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bshugg
Underboss
1833 Posts
| | 01/08/2008 12:02 PM |
| Posted By Lord_rock on 01/07/2008 7:06 PM
L- L brought mw, bless, non sneakable/poisonable hitters, an illuminator, and no stolen cfx. After debuffs it's one stalker at +9 for 5 and -2 saves, one stalker at +11 for ten and -2 saves, and one at full strength; not promissing. After debuffs stalker moral at +12 or worse... L also has okay fodder clearing ranged spells. As always, it's ugly and uglier for J on ratfang.
L vrs J.
This is the only match I've really studied as its the only one I find interesting. L has a lot of buffs, but using them either puts them way down on VP's, or gives band J multiple rounds of accurate shots at their fodder and softening up any hitters they do send forward. Those buffs are going to come at a cost. Â
I think on L's map, band J has some trouble.  It needs to make sure it gets to and kills/routes aramil with both wolves and dire rats or else it loses.  It does have activation advantage and a solid commander advantage so that is actually pretty likely. With Aramil out of the picture. It's actually a close match up unless J loses some paralyze saves. L has trouble hitting overall and takes some damage on the way in from ranged shots, and J gets nerfed on damage losing sneak attack and poison bonus.   Â
On Ratfang I  put it 60/40 in favor of L
However on J's map, L doesn't have much chance at all barring some really lucky hold monsters.  It will be near impossible to make hits in the woods making the watchers almost worthless, and kolyuruts will have a really tough time manuvering through the cluttered map while taking ranged shots the whole time.  Using hit and run manuvers, winning a lot more inits to get first strikes off, and some clutch slapping hands and slides, J can really grind down on L.
On Dragondown grotto I put it 75/25 in favor of J
Since J has a 75/25 (approx) chance of winning map init. I think J wins this match up over all most of the time. | |
Looking for someone to cosponser a midwest DDM event. let me know if your interested!
Check out my brand new blog:
http://bshugg.blogspot.com | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
| | 01/08/2008 1:33 PM |
| Posted By vanrulzz on 01/07/2008 3:14 PM
lol, looks like s is in another tug of war with votes. Not just S.
By the time is over, there's a chance we'll have a 5-way tie of bands that are 4-1.
Of those five, one of them had an OMW% of only 43.8% going in, another had only an OMW% of 50%. Of the others, it's going to be very, very close.
We may yet have to have a playoff.
:sigh:
Hmm. Maybe I'll change up the playoff, introduce new maps or something cruel.
Dave
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Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Lord_rock
Underboss
2019 Posts
Portland OR
| | 01/08/2008 5:31 PM |
| | L's buffs all go off (except bless) on round one and both bands have 9 acts, and 2 wolves and 2 rats coming means L is up 5 extra points if spiritual weapon, sound bursts, and kolyruts don't manage to kill or route the fodder...after buffing L's fodder is way on top...kolyrut have just as easy a time moving around as the stalkers and the watcers are way more mobile... 75/25 isn't that accurate... Unless you're talking L's chances on Ratfang...and that's low estimate should that happen... A further -2 att and saves and no forest = worthless then dead stalkers. | |
Rock Bottom Pricing:
Arcane Archer 30, Centaur Hero 67, Human Cleric of Bane 25, Gold Champion 34, Death Knight 52, Goblin Blackblade 9, Silentwolf Goblin 7, Orc Raider 10, Dwarf axefighter 9, Healer 9, Thaskor 65, Aspect of Demogorgon 71, Ogre 9, Fire Giant 79, Human Wanderer 7, Drunken Master 18, Barghest 12, Longstider Barbarian 27, Longtooth Barbarian 22, Frost Giant 76, Ravenous Vampire 42, Large Earth Elemental: priceless | |
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Tellian
Sneak
125 Posts
Germany
| | 01/09/2008 6:08 AM |
| I don't see, why L should be that much behind J on Dragondown Grotto. Sure Grotto is a ranged map and the stalkers are fair ranged attackers, but L has good buffs and can wait in the woods until all buffs are cast. If J want to draw some VPs via fodder, L can prevent this with Aramil, Eberk and the Favored Soul. After buffing, the Watchers will lead Ls assault. The stalkers may try to shoot down the watchers, but there is only a rate of 0.275, that an stalker will deal damage to a buffed watcher via a ranged attack. If a stalker gets nerved and/or don't get the hide advantage the chance drops to 0.225, 0.175 or 0.125(worst case, if he get hit by every debuff and can't benefit from hide). This is less then 10 damage per round(in the best case for J) and there are three Watchers so they may change position to avoid kills. It shouldn't be a big problem for L to set up the melee combat and then L should be in the better position(thanks to drain life, debuff and paralyse).
P.S.
I also would like to know how T will beat K, I don't see it. Kolys should win against every warband which is higly effected by drain life and/or paralyse.
regards | |
The journey is the reward | |
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Lord_rock
Underboss
2019 Posts
Portland OR
| | 01/12/2008 2:05 AM |
| so the way it looks now:
L beats J giving it it's first loss... S beat L in the closest match of the WBC yet... L's only loss is to S and it is the only band to beat J... S lost early on meaning it lost to a lower ranked opponent... L was the lowest ranked undefeated band... S had an"easier" schedule... That's a mess and a half... At least 4 bands going 4-1 and a big mess at the top...
On principal I vote against dual Maries since they are the only remaining "standard" band... Thank goodness A lost to L... Even messier then...
So if nothing changes right now who wins??? I'm not so great with the alpha-numerics... | |
Rock Bottom Pricing:
Arcane Archer 30, Centaur Hero 67, Human Cleric of Bane 25, Gold Champion 34, Death Knight 52, Goblin Blackblade 9, Silentwolf Goblin 7, Orc Raider 10, Dwarf axefighter 9, Healer 9, Thaskor 65, Aspect of Demogorgon 71, Ogre 9, Fire Giant 79, Human Wanderer 7, Drunken Master 18, Barghest 12, Longstider Barbarian 27, Longtooth Barbarian 22, Frost Giant 76, Ravenous Vampire 42, Large Earth Elemental: priceless | |
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vanrulzz
Commander
2557 Posts
¯\(°_o)/¯
| | 01/12/2008 9:31 AM |
| Posted By Lord_rock on 01/12/2008 2:05 AM
On principal I vote against dual Maries since they are the only remaining "standard" band...
That's not really a good reason not to vote for a band, just because it isn't creative doesn't mean it's a bad band that wont win. I can see what you are trying to say, but you shuldn't vote for dual mariliths because they are "standard" (Which actually I have never seen played ever, just so you know)
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
| | 01/12/2008 1:35 PM |
| That's one of the weird beauties of the Warband Building Challenge. Part of the challenge in winning is having your band overcome some very strange reasons given for people's votes.
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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Vrecknidj
Warlord
10445 Posts
United States
| | 01/15/2008 11:17 AM |
| Given that Maxminis has been down a little while, I'm going to give people a day or so (provided we're back up and running) to post about this 5th round. If more people want to cast votes, I'll take them for a couple days.
Also, here in the discussion thread, we'll talk about how to proceed from here, since there's a 5-way tie of 4-1 bands.
I posted quite a bit of information over on the DDM Spoilers page. Rather than repost it here, just go check over there and come back here to discuss it.
Link
Dave | |
Knowledge Arcana editor issues 5-9, Phoenix Lore Magazine editor, assistant editor for Rite Publishing;
My Trade Thread and My Reference Thread; Winner of WBC IV, IX and XIII; Rule #0: bshugg is always right! | |
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