XenoZephyr
Underboss
1083 Posts
    
 | | 06/09/2006 11:13 AM |
| Inspired by Vrecknidj's post on Activations so far:
<br>Initiative Bonus in the top 4 bands at qualifiers:<br><br>Europe (3.5) Utah (2.75) Michigan (2.75)<br>1 4 1 2 1 1<br>2 3 2 0 2 1<br>3 4 3 5 3 4<br>4 3 4 4 4 5<br><br>Toronto (5.25) Minnesota (4) Kentucky (1.25)<br>1 5 1 3 1 0<br>2 5 2 6 2 4<br>3 5 3 3 3 0<br>4 6 4 4 4 1<br><br>Montreal (2.75) Arizona (5) Mass. (3)<br>1 1 1 7 1 0<br>2 1 2 3 2 7<br>3 4 3 4 3 0<br>4 5 4 6 4 5<br><br>Alberta (3.75) Colorado (4)<br>1 5 1 5<br>2 3 2 5<br>3 7 3 3<br>4 0 4 3<br><br>N. J. (3) Pennsylvania (4.25)<br>1 5 1 4<br>2 4 2 1<br>3 0 3 6<br>4 3 4 6<br><br>Overall average Init Bonus: 3.48.<br><br>Place Euro Utah Mich Toro Minn Kent Mont Ariz Albe Colo Mass NJ Penn Avg<br>1 4 2 1 5 3 0 1 7 5 5 0 5 4 3.23<br>2 3 0 1 5 6 4 1 3 3 5 7 4 1 3.31<br>3 4 5 4 5 3 0 4 4 7 3 0 0 6 3.46<br>4 3 4 5 6 4 1 5 6 0 3 5 3 6 3.92<br>Avg 3.5 2.75 2.75 5.25 4 1.25 2.75 5 3.75 4 3 3 4.25 3.48<br>
Hope you don't mind I stole your format Dave!
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Sirohk
Commander
3930 Posts
USA
| | 06/09/2006 12:22 PM |
| Very nicely done XenoZepher! [^]
But now, what can we take from this?
INI BONUS / NO. Qualifiers
0 / 7 Qualifiers
1 / 6 Qualifiers
2 / 1 Qualifier
3 / 9 Qualifiers
4 / 10 Qualifiers
5 / 11 Qualifiers
6 / 5 Qualifiers
7 / 3 Qualifiers
It looks like the majority of the qualifiers are in the 3-5 (57.7%) initiative bonus range, with a quarter of qualifiers in the 0-1 (25.0%) initiative range.
[)] | |
Sirohk, the Bard of Heartstone
Knight of the Rahshasa's
And Crusader of the Zakya, Ak'chazar, Naztharune, and Naityan Rakshasa's | |
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XenoZephyr
Underboss
1083 Posts
| | 06/09/2006 12:52 PM |
| | I like the fact that Initiative decreases as we go from 4th to 1st. | |
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Tried
Sergeant
501 Posts
| | 06/09/2006 1:20 PM |
| | I like the fact that there is enough variance that the trend is not statistically significant, but that a lot of folks don't understand that. | |
Let it be. | |
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The Defenestrator
AesophDarkfable
Warlord
5628 Posts
| | 06/09/2006 1:52 PM |
| Though not updated for last weekend yet I did this last week and its in Jesse's stats thread.
I broke down highest init bonus, also total average with secondary commanders. | |
Im out- find me on Hordelings if you want to chat. | |
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XenoZephyr
Underboss
1083 Posts
| | 06/09/2006 2:10 PM |
| | Sorry Aesoph! I must have missed that. | |
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PerpetualStudent
Sneak
173 Posts
| | 06/09/2006 3:41 PM |
| | In addition to secondary commander, it would be interesting to note the difference between commander 0, like the Couatl bands, and bands without comanders. While I took 5th place, so I am not on the list, I actually won map choice 4 of 6 times at the NJ qualifier without a commander. | |
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The Defenestrator
AesophDarkfable
Warlord
5628 Posts
| | 06/09/2006 7:41 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by PerpetualStudent
In addition to secondary commander, it would be interesting to note the difference between commander 0, like the Couatl bands, and bands without comanders. While I took 5th place, so I am not on the list, I actually won map choice 4 of 6 times at the NJ qualifier without a commander.
There has only been one commanderless band in the top 4 so far. George Estill at KY. | |
Im out- find me on Hordelings if you want to chat. | |
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ruhk69
Warrior
205 Posts
| | 06/09/2006 8:58 PM |
| quote:
Originally posted by PerpetualStudent
In addition to secondary commander, it would be interesting to note the difference between commander 0, like the Couatl bands, and bands without comanders. While I took 5th place, so I am not on the list, I actually won map choice 4 of 6 times at the NJ qualifier without a commander.
Including against my cmdr 5!!! | |
The Waterboy. Proud member of Team Amish. | |
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SYB
Warrior
328 Posts
| | 06/09/2006 10:35 PM |
| There is some info that can be gleaned from this. The average commander rating is roughly 4 (technically, it is closer to 3, but 4 is more conservative and over half the bands are in the 3-5 range).
This means, that if you bring the following commander rating, you have the following average % chance to win any particular initiative (including map initiative):
0(-4) / 30%
1(-3) / 34%
2(-2) / 38.25%
3(-1) / 42.75%
4(even) / 50%
5(+1) / 57.25%
6(+2) / 61.75%
7(+3) / 66%
8(+4) / 70% (not that Ryld has actually made a top 4 band yet)
9(+5) / 73.75% (Satyr or LCD love here)
10(+6) / 77.25%
11(+7) / 80.5%
I mostly just included the last few because it is possible to have a 7 initiative swing between two commanders (not because I really thought that a Ryld/LCD army was going to go all the way).
So, CoDA vs. Couatl should win, on average, about 80% of initiatives (and is basically assured of getting map). On average, a commander rating of 1 will only get map choice 1/3 of the time. If map is essential to your army, hopefully you brought a commander 7 (get map 2/3 of the time against an average opponent).
This also highlights the major flaw of the 4 HH army. While they may be fearless, against the average army, you will only win 30% of initiative rolls (including the key ones) and 20% against a CoDA.
-SYB | |
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